Netanyahu's failure in the Corona crisis brings his great rival closer to the prime minister's residence • Bibi still has cards up his sleeve, but if Bennett resists the temptations - anything is possible • Interpretation
Begin of today?
Naftali Bennett
Photography:
Oren Ben Hakon
In August 1970, opposition representative Menachem Begin took the Knesset podium and warned harshly about the government he had just left.
"The whole people must hear about it. When the day comes, if Nasser (the President of Egypt) decides to open fire - and knowing the reality we must assume that there will be no doubt that such a day will come - the enemy will have a decisive advantage in artillery and armor; "In this advantage and prevent losses in the battle for him - this action will be very difficult to perform without losses in a considerable number of our pilots and planes."
Three years passed from Begin's warning speech until the scenario he presented came true one by one.
The Yom Kippur War, which erupted in surprise, was accompanied by heavy losses to the Air Force, and a disruption of its ability to provide protection to the ground forces.
It was Prime Minister Golda Meir who closed her eyes to the advancement of Egypt's anti-aircraft batteries, from which Begin warned. The price of disregard was unbearable.
Four years after the Yom Kippur War, the first political upheaval in Israel took place.
The thousands killed, the military failure, the economic crisis, the mass demonstrations and the sense of sabotage from Mapai, did their part. Menachem Begin, who was Golda's young and right - wing partner in the government, was elected prime minister. Who warned ahead of time of the impending disaster while responsible leaders preferred to ignore it.
Exactly 50 years have passed since this speech by Begin.
In August 2020, Naftali Bennett, until recently the right-wing and young partner of Benjamin Netanyahu, spoke at the same Knesset podium.
With a hoarse throat, Bennett sharply attacked the helplessness of the "unity government" in the face of the corona crisis.
"What did you do in 80 days ?! How much did you change the number of tests ?! What did you do in the epidemiological investigations ?! What did you do on the flights ?! What did you do for business ?! Nothing! You are crazy ?! What did you do ?! You are ruining the lives of millions of citizens In the State of Israel. You kill them, you kill them from within. Children with disabilities do not get solutions because you quarrel among themselves. Say, are you crazy ?! It's mind control! People are dying! ", Bennett roared into the microphone, his voice choking.
Political interest and authentic rage
Bennett's outburst, beyond the political interest that always plays a role, unleashed a huge personal rage that had accumulated in him for months.
As Defense Minister in Netanyahu's transitional government, he saw with his own eyes how the prime minister's political accounts, the bureaucracy of the Ministry of Health and misjudgment, from Netanyahu's level and below, bring a health and economic disaster on Israel.
Bennett begged to operate the Home Front Command, the body born to deal with such situations.
Netanyahu did not let him.
Nor to the defense minister who came after him, Bnei Gantz.
Frustrated and disappointed, Bennett did what he loves and went down to the field, to business, to mayors, to experts.
In the few days he remained as defense minister and in the months that followed, when he remained outside the unity government, he presented an alternative policy for dealing with the corona.
For example, contracting with private laboratories such as that of Mae-Hartig to perform tests (a move completed by Health Minister Yuli Edelstein), setting up the 'Corona Cabinet' (long before the official government official), life-saving instructional videos for the public, the book 'How Forever epidemic, individual assistance to business owners, and more.
The alternative he presented, the clear voice he voiced in the face of government confusion, the creative ideas he raised, what was perceived as his connection to the field and the late adoption of some of his proposals in government, led to his real strengthening in public opinion.
Bennett, became Dr. Corona of Israel while government policy turned out to be a colossal failure.
A double death blow landed on Israel, both in the number of those who perished in the plague, and in the enormous economic damage, with the application of the second closure.
An example and role model for the world in the first wave, Israel became an example and wit, in the second wave.
Where will we lead the disgrace.
December test
Political developments have also contributed to Bennett's strengthening beyond the 20-seat threshold and beyond.
The lack of personal example of Netanyahu and his ministers, the lack of punishment on his part towards his people who violated the guidelines, and the refusal to admit mistakes - all of these hurt Netanyahu, no less than the administrative failure.
The internal quarrel has a bad future, incited a seat or two to the right, and the right-wing voters of Blue and White, as well as those disappointed by the Likud's sovereignty, have previously moved to support Bennett - so far only in polls.
The corona crisis therefore placed Naftali Bennett in a leap for the first time as prime minister.
If he strengthens a little more, and if Netanyahu weakens a little more - quite reasonable trends - real competition will open between the two for the leadership of the national camp.
A 25-seat tie between Netanyahu and Bennett, or a close result, no longer seems so absurd.
But before this test arrives, Netanyahu, Bennett and Bnei Gantz are also waiting for a crossroads of difficult decisions.
Cruel December can be called.
On December 23, the deadline for approving the state budget for 2021 will expire. If the budget is not approved in the Knesset, the government will automatically fall.
Netanyahu will first have to decide whether he wants to approve the budget or get out of the rotation and dismantle the government.
Bnei Gantz will also face the budget dilemma.
Whether to continue cooperating with Netanyahu while his party disintegrates, or to retire and risk elections that could jeopardize his political existence.
Even if the government falls apart - and there are good reasons to think so - there is no certainty that this will lead to a fourth election.
In the summer it was clear that the election would be avoided.
Now, we'm in a different game.
The current government has lost the right to exist, as it does not function in the face of the Corona or in any other internal challenge.
In similar situations in the past, Netanyahu did not shy away from elections, but with what will he come to the elections this time?
With thousands dead?
With shattered confidence?
With mass demonstrations?
With a country that has not had an approved budget for two years?
With a failure to manage the second wave of the corona?
How will Netanyahu convince the people, especially the right, to manage the Corona crisis better than its right-wing rival, Naftali Bennett?
Netanyahu will try to gather a government from the remnants of a blue-and-white bloc
So Netanyahu will try to avoid elections as much as he can and form a government with the remnants of a blue and white bloc in the current Knesset.
Amir Peretz, Pnina Tamanu, Omer Yankelevich, perhaps also Gabi Ashkenazi, Zvi Hauser and Yoaz Handel - Netanyahu will try to gather everything around him to form a government in the current Knesset.
However, in order to succeed in the task and avoid elections, he must have the five fingers of his haters, Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked and their partners.
Without them he has no 61 fingers.
Netanyahu will probably offer Bennett a world in its entirety.
Ministers of Defense and Justice, perhaps even a acting prime minister, and of course responsibility for managing the corona crisis.
The ball will therefore be kicked to Bennett's court.
He will have to choose between a fantastic achievement in a fourth election, and arguments like "national responsibility," and "getting under the stretcher."
Of course for Bennett elections too are a huge risk.
Anyone like him knows that what looks good in an initial poll may end badly at the ballot box.
Right now the adherents of the position that they will not join this "evil government".
Bennett, they already say, is the alternative of Netanyahu, the beginner of Golda, the leader who warned of the default, the politician who refused to enter the government of failure.
Of course, they also have no reason to help Netanyahu after it dismantled the right-wing bloc.
The conditions required for a political upheaval are met.
The country as a distance.
The national failure is felt.
The demonstrations are compressing the atmosphere, but perhaps what took seven years in the 1970s may happen within one year in the 2000s.
If the public grip on Bennett's arguments continues to grow, if he does resist the temptations that Netanyahu will offer him, and if we meet again at the polls at the end of winter, then there is a good chance that spring 2021 will bring a new prime minister to Israel.
His name will be Naftali Bennett.
