Academic Philip Tetlock has been fighting for 40 years to promote better forecasting from forecasters.
A good forecast is not a prophecy.
Much more modest, it combines probability calculation and a close time limit.
The weather app on our cell phone shows a 70% chance that it will rain tomorrow and the following days.
No God will let us replay the same day a hundred times to verify that this prognosis is perfectly correct.
But if it doesn't rain for several days in a row, we can remove the app.
Forecasts made by geopolitical experts are not so easily verified: revolutions do not happen every day.
Neither pandemics.
The loudmouths of geopolitical prophetology speak very well, but in general terms, and their calendars are so distant that they are never told they got it all wrong.
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It is from this Stone Age of prediction that our authors
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