In 2020, the recession will be a little less severe than expected, estimates the IMF.
The decline in global activity should be limited to 4.4% instead of 5.2% as forecast in June by the organization that watches over the global economy.
This improvement is part of a contrasting landscape.
The GDP of most advanced economies, especially the United States and the euro area, where the second quarter rebound surprised, will decline less than expected.
In the United States, the decline will reach 4.3% (instead of -8%).
The large states of the euro zone will also experience a less severe decline than expected, whether it is France (-9.8% rather than -12.5%), Germany (-6% instead of -7.8%) or Italy, which gained 2.2 points.
2021 revised downwards
Conversely, forecasts are deteriorating for several emerging and developing countries, in particular India, which is expected to record a dip in its GDP twice as large as expected to -10.3% in 2020.
China remains the big exception in this bleak picture.
It is the only large country avoiding recession with growth expected to reach 1.9% this year.
In 2021, on the other hand, the IMF's global growth forecasts are slightly revised downwards compared to those of June (-0.2%).
According to the Washington-based organization, this is due in part to the foreseeable prolongation of social distancing processes.
The general level of GDP in 2021 is expected to be “
” 0.6% higher than in 2019.
In the medium term, the recovery will be difficult, warns Gita Gopinath, chief economist of the Fund, calling for continued support policies.