Commerzbank chief economist: "We cannot afford a second lockdown economically"

The chief economist of Commerzbank, Jörg Krämer, is confident that the industry in Germany will continue to recover.

The prerequisite, however, is that the spread of the pandemic remains under control.

• Commerzbank

  chief economist

  Jörg

  Krämer

  does not

  expect a relapse into recession

  despite the increasing number of

  corona

  cases.

• The example of the

  USA also

  shows that the economy is recovering despite a second corona wave.

• It is important, however, that the authorities

  consistently implement

  the

  anti-corona measures

  .

Dr.

Krämer, the corona numbers are rising significantly again worldwide.

In Germany, the number of new infections is now back to the level of the beginning of April.

How worrisome is this development from an economic point of view?

Krämer: More important than the number of new infections is the number of

* patients in the intensive care units of hospitals.

This has doubled in the past four weeks, but luckily it is still well below the highs from the beginning of April.

Now it is important that the authorities

consistently implement

the

.

Chancellor Angela Merkel has already warned of another steep rise.

At Christmas, the number of new infections could be 19,000 cases, she recently warned.

Would a new lockdown still be prevented in this way?

Krämer: There will be no second undifferentiated

.

We cannot afford that economically.

In addition, we all learned something new.

With targeted measures against

, you can achieve a lot more than with a lockdown.

For the rest, we should concentrate on measures that protect people and at the same time enable economy.

By that I mean

and extensive

.

For which industries would such a development be particularly threatening? 

Krämer: For fear of infection, people avoid services such as

travel, air travel,

and

.

These are likely to suffer particularly from a second wave. 

The automotive industry is also suffering severely from the economic consequences of the pandemic.

Recently, the situation at BMW *, VW * and Mercedes-Benz has brightened somewhat.

How bad would a further setback be for the former German model industry?

Krämer: In contrast to many services, industry usually does not come into physical contact with its customers.

That is why the industry has outperformed many services in the past few months.

The industry, and especially the auto industry, has caught up with a large part of the corona slump.

If the business

remains open

as the industry's sales channel, the

should continue to recover, although growth rates should slow down after the strong recovery of the past few months.

What would that mean for the economy in Germany?

Is there a risk of a relapse into recession?

Krämer: A second corona wave does not automatically mean a second recession.

Politicians, companies and consumers have learned to deal with Corona to a certain extent.

We don't just have to shut down because of Corona.

The experience from the

encouraging.

There was a second corona wave there in the summer and the economy continued its recovery.

As an export world champion, Germany is heavily dependent on developments in other countries.

But especially in Spain and Italy, Corona is returning with power.

The situation is also rapidly deteriorating in France and Great Britain, and the pandemic in the USA seems out of control.

How dangerous is that for the German economy?

Krämer: Even our trading partners cannot

afford

a second undifferentiated

, they too have learned a lot more in dealing with Corona.

That's why I don't expect a second recession abroad, but a slowdown in the upward trend.