Analysis of credit data: 1 in 20 Israelis will not be able to meet the loan repayment they took • Experts estimate: When the deferral period ends - the crisis will come
Construction site in Netivot
Photography:
Dudu Greenspan / Archive
The balance of Israelis' mortgage debt at the end of June this year was about NIS 407.4 billion.
These data arise from an analysis of the credit data of the adult population in the State of Israel according to its credit ratings, FICO BDI ratings, which are published here for the first time.
When examining the segmentation of mortgages according to the rating of borrowers, it can be seen that most of the debt - 82%, is from customers who are rated very well (51%) and excellent (31%).
Only 13% of mortgage holders are in a lower rating - and in the fifth, lowest rating, 6% of mortgage takers are rated "very low".
The average mortgage amount of Israelis in all ratings is about NIS 552,378.
In the lower rating level are about 8.8% of the population and their risk level is 50%.
A third of those belonging to this group are late in payments and some are even in legal collection proceedings.
CofaceBdi estimates that this is 4.6% -3% of the total mortgage credit portfolio - about NIS 16 billion.
The "low" rating belongs to 8.3% of the population and the probability of failure to repay the mortgage is significantly lower, but it still stands at 10%.
That is, 1 in 10 borrowers in this ranking will not repay its debt.
The group above it - "less good" belong to 6.9% of the population and the level of risk is 4.8%.
The "very good" rating group belongs to 36% of borrowers and only 1 in 55 borrowers is expected not to repay its mortgage.
Whereas the "excellent" premium group belongs to almost 40% of the borrowers and the statistics predict a very high chance of repayment.
In July, the Bank of Israel announced that customers who have already received a deferral of mortgage payments will be able to defer payments until the end of 2020, even if the deferral exceeds six months.
According to Tehila Yanai, Co-CEO of CofaceBdi, “Due to the possibility of deferring mortgage payments we still do not see the significant impact of the Corona crisis on mortgage repayments.
That is, the crisis is still ahead of us.
"Banks will not be able to continue to defer mortgage payments forever, and when the tens of thousands of unemployed and self-employed who have lost their source of livelihood will have to deal with the mortgage, the number of failures will skyrocket."