Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during a press conference in the city of Ottawa on October 13.Sean Kilpatrick / AP
On the night of November 8, 2016, Justin Trudeau, with just one year as Canadian Prime Minister, received a bucket of cold water when he learned that Donald Trump had won the presidential election in the United States.
A day later he declared: "I will work with the Trump Administration in a positive way, not only for the United States and Canada, but for the entire world."
Trudeau and Trump represent antagonistic views and styles.
At that time, the phrase that Congressman Robert Thompson uttered in Ottawa in the 1960s was once again loud: "Americans are our best friends, whether we like it or not."
Canada has no other option: its relationship with the neighboring country is essential in economic matters, although it also has a marked impact in other spheres.
That is why Canadians eagerly await the results of the November 3 presidential election in the United States.
Since Donald Trump's arrival in the White House, relations between these North American countries have eroded.
Trump has cited at various times that Canada is taking advantage of the trade relationship.
It has also imposed tariffs on Canadian aluminum, arguing national security issues.
Likewise, his Twitter account has served to attack Justin Trudeau.
"Dishonest and weak", he has dedicated, among other adjectives.
Trudeau has replied that he will defend Canadian interests, without closing the door to dialogue.
Although his most memorable statement - last June - included 22 seconds of silence;
was the time it took to articulate a response about Trump's attitude toward the Black Lives Matter movement.
With this and other antecedents, it is not difficult to assume that the Liberal Government of Canada prefers a Joe Biden victory at the polls.
In addition, a poll published on October 1, conducted by the Léger firm, showed that 84% of the Canadians consulted prefer the Democratic candidate.
However, caution has been imposed as a strategy.
On October 8, the prime minister said that his government will not interfere in the election, but that it is preparing for any eventuality.
The
CBC
network
reported in August that Trudeau asked his ministers to increase communication channels with Washington, but not to comment on the elections.
In December 2015, Stéphane Dion - then Foreign Minister - harshly criticized candidate Trump's proposal to ban Muslims from entering the United States.
A few weeks after the New Yorker's victory, Trudeau replaced Dion with Chrystia Freeland, who was at the forefront of the renegotiation of the North American trade framework with her counterparts in Mexico and the United States.
About 75% of Canadian exports go to the United States.
Trade ties with the neighboring country are a neurological issue for Canada.
Biden has signaled his opposition to Trump's tariffs on Canadian aluminum.
He has also expressed his desire to re-involve his country in the Trans-Pacific Economic Cooperation Agreement.
“A second Trump term would be a great challenge for Canada.
Uncertainty has been a constant.
We signed a new trade agreement, but we have never been sure what will happen.
Biden is a more institutional politician.
It values the bilateral relationship more, ”says Christophe Cloutier-Roy, a researcher at the Observatory on the United States at the University of Quebec in Montreal.
However, not everything would be honey and petals for Canada in the commercial sphere.
Biden's electoral platform indicates that he intends to continue - and even reinforce - the "Buy American" policy regarding the consumption of domestic products.
Lawrence Herman, a member of the Howe Institute, wrote a few days ago in
The Globe and Mail
that it is necessary to take into account the influence of the unions within the Democratic Party, wary of free trade.
"It is worth remembering that it is often the Democratic politicians from the border states who have been the most critical of Canada and the most difficult to deal with in terms of bilateral trade," he noted.
“Not all tension points would go away with Biden.
For decades there have been disputes over industrial wood.
Aluminum is also an issue that continues and there will surely be signs towards Canadian companies in the new commercial framework, ”says Cloutier-Roy.
At the international level, a Biden victory would bring Canada and the United States closer together at various points on their foreign agendas, given the unilateral spirit that has characterized the Trump Administration.
One example is Biden's promise that his country will return to the Paris Agreement.
He has also expressed that NATO would be at risk of disappearing if Trump wins re-election.
China is not a minor issue.
While many experts argue that the rivalry between Beijing and Washington will continue for decades to come, a Democratic victory could lower decibels.
Mark Haefele, an analyst at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote in a note that Biden would expect "a more predictable and less overtly hostile foreign policy toward China."
Canada has suffered collateral damage from these struggles.
Meng Wanzhou, vice president of Huawei, was arrested in December 2018 in Vancouver, at the request of the Americans, for allegedly violating the trade sanctions imposed on Iran.
The extradition procedure continues to be discussed in court.
Beijing imposed restrictions on certain Canadian products and detained two Canadian citizens.
Canada has indicated that these actions were in retaliation for the case of the executive.
Some strong voices in Canada (such as Guy Saint-Jaques, Canadian ambassador to China from 2012 to 2016) have stated that Biden could withdraw the extradition request within the framework of a different political approach towards the Asian country.
The pandemic is also an issue that worries Canada in this election.
The border between the two countries is only open for essential activities from March 21.
In September, a Research Co. poll found that 90% of Canadians agree to these restrictions.
The United States is the country in the world with the most infections and deaths from covid-19.
Biden indicates in his electoral program, among other points, that he will increase testing and monitoring and listen to the opinion of scientists, in addition to constantly consulting governors and mayors.
“Management would be more prudent with Joe Biden.
The relationship it underlines with the States is very important, since they make most of the decisions.
Biden would be more cautious about reopening the border.
Trump has been more hasty in doing it, ”says Cloutier-Roy.
