An adviser to US President Donald Trump on Friday advised Taiwan to “
fortify itself
” to protect itself from an invasion by China, while deeming this eventuality unlikely before “
10 or 15 years
”.
Read also: China shows its muscles against Taiwan
"
I don't think the Chinese want or are prepared at this point for an amphibious landing in Taiwan,
" White House national security adviser Robert O'Brien said.
"
I think it would be a very difficult military operation for the Chinese to carry out today
," O'Brien added during an online conference hosted by the think tank Aspen Institute.
"
Maybe in 10 or 15 years, they will be better prepared to do it,
" he added, stressing that China is developing its navy at high speed.
The executive adviser reflected at length on the situation in Taiwan, which China considers part of its territory.
Taiwan is not recognized as an independent state by the UN and Beijing regularly threatens to use force in the event of a formal proclamation of independence in Taipei or external intervention - especially American.
Noting that China "
has aimed a huge number of missiles
" at the island, he estimated that Beijing could "
annihilate
" Taiwan with a strike.
“
But I don't see what they would get out of it,
” he added.
The Chinese navy would also have a 180 km strait to cross and "
once you get to Taiwan, there are very few beaches, four or five, that would be adequate,
" he explained.
"
I think it would be a very difficult operation for the Chinese
."
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In addition, Mr. Trump's adviser noted that Beijing should consider the possibility of the United States militarily defending Taiwan in the event of an attempted invasion.
“
We have a lot of tools at our disposal,
” he said.
"
If we were involved, these tools would make this attempt very dangerous for China
."
The Taiwanese must therefore strengthen their defenses, comparing the small island to a porcupine that a lion like China would not want to eat.
"
I think Taiwan must start to think about asymmetric strategies of denial of access (...) and strengthen itself in such a way as to dissuade China from launching any kind of amphibious invasion
", he concluded.
Washington severed diplomatic relations with Taipei in 1979 to recognize Beijing, but remains the island's most powerful ally and its number one arms supplier.
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