From our correspondent in Beijing
While Europe and the United States are caught up by a second epidemic wave, China is consolidating its recovery, after bringing the Covid in line.
The world's second-largest economy recorded growth of 4.9% in the third quarter according to official statistics unveiled Monday in Beijing, amplifying the rebound recorded in the spring after coming out of confinement.
Over the period from July to September, the world plant experienced "
a sustained recovery
" despite a "
difficult
" situation marked by the Covid-19 pandemic, said the National Bureau of Statistics (BNS).
This performance remains below the forecasts of analysts who expected growth exceeding 5%, but confirms the rebound of 3.2% recorded in the second quarter.
This pace should allow the Asian giant to escape a recession over the year 2020, erasing the brutal contraction of the economy of the first quarter of minus 6.8%, following the drastic measures put in place to contain the epidemic which had hatched in Wuhan.
"
China could be the only major economy on the planet to escape recession this year,
" judge Zhang Lin, an independent economist, in Beijing.
The IMF even predicts growth of 1.9% for the most populous country in the world, while the United States and Europe are expected to see their activity contract sharply by 4.3% and 8.3% respectively.
These official figures, still unreliable, support the authoritarian communist regime of President Xi Jinping, which had started the "
patriotic war
" against the "
demon of the virus
".
Beijing is reaping the benefits of its health vigilance in the face of Covid, while life has gradually resumed its course, behind borders closed to foreigners since March.
China has only registered a handful of new Covid cases since the summer, including twelve in the city of Qingdao, leading to the mandatory screening of the 9 million inhabitants of the metropolis of Shandong, last week.
The gradual return to normal on a daily basis, thanks to the easing of restrictions, allowed consumption to pick up during the summer, marked by an increase in retail sales of 3.3% in September.
"
The market has recovered thanks to the reopening of restaurants, hotels, and manufacturing activities,
" Zhang said.
Economic activity has not returned to its pre-epidemic level
However, economic activity has not returned to its pre-epidemic level, and this recovery in the third quarter remains well below the 6% recorded in the same period in 2019. The net recovery in domestic tourism during the "
Golden Week
" at the beginning of October, confirms this trend with an activity of around 75% of the previous year, according to professionals in the sector.
The Chinese recovery remains driven by the intervention of the State, and the State groups (SOE) to revive a growth engaged in a structural slowdown for several years, while consumption struggles to take over.
“
State groups and local governments are the main beneficiaries of this revival.
The epidemic and the Sino-American tensions further accentuate the dependence on the state of the Chinese economy,
”judge Zhang, former researcher at the Unirule think tank, since closed under pressure from the authorities.
This state strategy is in line with President Xi Jinping's vision to strengthen Chinese self-sufficiency in key sectors, and refocus activity on its domestic market, according to his theory of "
double circulation
" unveiled this summer.
L'Usine du monde has rebounded by taking advantage of the sanitary paralysis of many of its competitors, such as India, to boost its exports.
But, the persistent pandemic weakens demand from developed markets, clouding the horizon of Chinese manufacturers in search of new outlets after the boom in masks and other medical products.
“
Export growth is not sustainable.
70% of manufacturing companies suffer,
”Judge Zhang.
Western difficulties could also hit foreign investment and growth in the long term.
However, the Middle Kingdom will emerge strengthened in the face of "
systemic
"
rivals
permanently stuck in the covid.
