Two weeks before the ballot, the strange US presidential election may well take place against an unprecedented background of pandemic and economic crisis, Republicans and Democrats alike remain obsessed with the precedent of 2016.
The former hope to reproduce the feat that allowed Donald Trump's surprise victory against Hillary Clinton, at the time favorite in the polls.
The latter fear that the catastrophic scenario of a popular victory followed by a defeat in the electoral college, which decides the election in the American system, will reoccur.
With 11 points ahead of Joe Biden, the Democratic candidate, has been well ahead of his opponent for several weeks in national polls.
But this seemingly comfortable score is a disturbing reminder to Democrats of the 10 points Hillary Clinton was credited with two weeks before the vote four years earlier.
And Joe Biden's lead is shrinking in a few of the key states where the election will be played out.
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Joe Biden in the polls
Democrats, who have campaigned actively to convince their constituents to vote despite the epidemic and red tape, fear the advance will help demobilize them.
More inclined than Republicans to vote by mail, they also fear that their ballots will not all be counted, for various reasons, especially in states where the election could be played out like four years ago to a few tens of thousands. of voice.
But above all, remains the almost superstitious fear of seeing Donald Trump manage to snatch victory again by making polls, surveys and forecasts lie.
On the Republican side, nervousness is also great, and confidence in Donald Trump's ability to catch up has been shaken by his contamination by Covid-19.
After being forced to take ten days off his campaign, Trump resumed his election tours last week.
Almost every day, the outgoing president flies to one of the contested states aboard the presidential plane Air Force One.
Most often, on the tarmac, in front of his aircraft, he holds a rally in front of his jubilant supporters.
Doing everything to show that the disease has not reduced him physically, he frequently sketches dance steps before leaving.
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In Pennsylvania, Democrats are mobilizing in a climate of mistrust
Trump has lost none of his energy and pugnacity.
Nor of his almost intuitive sense of politics.
His campaign is also largely inspired by his 2016 election, which saw him fail almost every poll and win.
Trying both to keep the states he wrested in extremis from the Democrats four years earlier, such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, Trump is trying to repeat his 2016 feat by mobilizing unforeseen voters and thus shifting States that had narrowly escaped him, such as Nevada, counting himself in front of his supporters.
He also took up all the themes of his campaign at the time.
He tries to discredit Joe Biden as he did with Hillary Clinton, portraying him as a corrupt politician who "
almost makes Hillary Clinton look like an amateur
."
In almost every one of his speeches, he insists that he has "
done more in 47 months in the presidency than Joe Biden in 47 years of political career
".
But the Covid-19 pandemic, which continues to spread in the United States, and particularly in the Republican states, makes Trump's charges against the "
deep state
" and "
corrupt politicians
"
less convincing
, themes already developed in 2016. Even if Trump avoids the topic as much as possible, the epidemic and its economic consequences remain the main concern of many Americans.
And Trump's brave attitude to the risk of contamination hardly appeals beyond his most convinced supporters.
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US Presidential: in Michigan, mass seems to be said for the outgoing president
Trump's extraordinary personality and uncommon pugnacity, however, continue to fascinate his supporters and opponents alike.
As if the 2016 precedent had superstitled American political circles, no one publicly dares to contemplate a massive victory for Joe Biden.
“
No one will say it in public,
” Peggy Noonan, a columnist for the conservative
Wall Street Journal
, wrote last week
: “
Journalists because they don't want to look stupid if they are wrong, Democrats because they are wrong. 'they don't want to demobilize their constituents out of overconfidence, the Republicans because they don't want to demoralize their troops, and the media because they have to keep everyone on their toes
. ”
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