Economy and governance, the challenges of the future MAS Government in Bolivia

The overwhelming electoral success of Luis Arce in the Bolivian elections - he obtains more than 50% of the votes with 60% counted - has silenced and confused the social and political forces that passionately oppose his party, the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS ).

However, once he takes office as president in mid-November, those voices will return.

Arce will have to face strong opposition from the more affluent middle classes who voted for other candidates last Sunday and, at the same time, the demands for employment and well-being of his voters, who mostly have low incomes and are in a situation extremely vulnerable to the coronavirus crisis.

The agenda of the new Bolivian government will be complex.

To the economic crisis, he will add other sensitive issues such as the situation with former president Evo Morales, the historical leader of his party, who has announced his intention to return to Bolivia;

or the situation of seven MAS leaders held at the residence of the Mexican ambassador in La Paz;

or the hundreds of trials that are underway against Morales and dozens of his former officials.

Luis Arce has become the new president of Bolivia based on his reputation as Minister of Economy between 2006 and 2016. Now his biggest challenge is trying to repeat the success of then in a very different and adverse economic scenario.

During the first two quarters, the Bolivian economy contracted 10%, the worst recession in the country's history.

How, then, to maintain the economic model of previous decades, based on the country's export bonanza to create and maintain dozens of state companies, redistribute wealth through aggressive social and wage policies, and tackle large infrastructure projects?

According to Omar Yujra, a member of Arce's group of economic advisers, this will be achieved, first, by not paying the foreign debt for two years, which will mean a saving of 1.6 billion dollars in principal and interest.

In addition, a new tax will be imposed on large fortunes, which will return 400 million dollars each year.

“It will be a tax for billionaires, not for middle class people.

99.9% of Bolivians will not pay this tax ”, he promises.

With this initial impulse, the Government of Arce will seek to support the three sectors that create the most employment: manufacturing, agriculture and domestic tourism.

With this he hopes to solve the most pressing problem of the moment: the lack of sources of work, especially for young people.

"We will have a neo-protectionist approach: promoting national production with the greatest possible import substitution," says Yujra.

The ghost of revenge

Arce's other big problem will be to ensure the governability of the country, reassuring the middle classes that applauded the fall of Evo Morales and the persecution of the MAS, and who now fear a revenge from the left.

"Democracy has said that the country should be directed in a concerted way, listening, reaching great agreements to find solutions and get out of the crisis," said the main spokesman of the MAS, Sebastián Michel.

"There is no time for grudges and revenge, we must arrange exits," he added.

Michel also assured that Arce will not share the presidential decisions with anyone else.

In certain sectors of the population there is a fear that Evo Morales is the president “in the shadows” and that, then, the differences in style that distance Arce from the former president will be lost, as a less hostile attitude towards the adversaries.

Morales faces 30 trials and investigations, some for political crimes, such as sedition and "terrorism" (questioned by human rights organizations), and others for ordinary crimes, such as the two cases of alleged rape brought by the internal government of Jeanine Añez.

“I want you to know, I have 30 processes, none is corruption, we do politics not for money but for the country.

All the processes are going to fall, ”Morales declared from Buenos Aires, where he has lived as a political refugee since December.

This anticipation has created the impression in Bolivia that the MAS will take advantage of its electoral triumph to put pressure on Justice, as it did when it was the Government, and Añez did during the last year.

Those of Evo Morales are not the only trials that Arce will have to deal with.

There are hundreds of processes against former ministers and fellow party members.

In addition, seven senior MAS officials are stranded at the residence of the Mexican ambassador in La Paz, because Añez did not want to give them safe-conduct to leave the country.

For months, the current Minister of Government, Arturo Murillo, made the custody of these people - among whom is the "strong man" of the Morales government, Juan Ramón Quintana - a means of pleasing and mobilizing the wealthy and wealthy sectors. rich of La Paz.

Returning Quintana and the others to their homes is something that the masistas want “for a lifetime”, but that would be considered a scandal for a large part of society.