Unemployment rate rose to 6.4% scholars expected to reappear layoffs by the end of the year

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Written by: Huang Yongyu

2020-10-20 18:48

Last update date: 2020-10-20 18:48

The new crown pneumonia epidemic has hit all walks of life. In the latest quarter, the unemployment rate rose to 6.4%, the highest level in nearly 16 years. The underemployment rate remained at 3.8%, and the number of unemployed increased to 259,000.

Some scholars believe that the unemployment rate will continue to rise in the short term. After the job-guarantee program is completed, there may be another "wave of layoffs" at the end of the year. By then, the unemployment rate may rise to 7%.

A trade union directly pointed out that the number of unemployed close to 260,000 was exaggerated and urged the government to introduce support measures for the unemployed as soon as possible.

The combined unemployment rate in the retail, accommodation and catering services industry rose to 11.7%.

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According to data from the Census and Statistics Department, compared with June to August, the unemployment rate of most major economic sectors increased from July to September, including retail, accommodation and catering services, and arts, entertainment and recreational activities. There is a relatively obvious rise in industry.

As for the underemployment rate, the decline was mainly seen in the transportation and education industries, while the increase was mainly seen in the catering service activities and arts, entertainment and recreational activities.

Scholars: after the end of the employment guarantee plan or the current wave of layoffs

​Senior Lecturer Li Zhaobo, CUHK Business School, believes that the unemployment rate will continue to rise in the short term, and it is expected that the rate of increase in the next period will be similar. In November, many employers did not continue to apply and chose to lay off employees and reduce expenditure. The unemployment rate in this period reflects the relevant situation. In addition, the underemployment rate in the two periods has remained high at 3.8%. I believe employers are still holding a wait-and-see attitude. , That is, at the end of the year there may be a wave of "draft" layoffs, and the unemployment rate may rise to more than 7% by then.

Zhuang Tailiang, executive director of the Liu Zuode Institute of Global Economics and Finance at CUHK, believes that the epidemic was severe from July to September. The government implemented stricter epidemic prevention measures against crowds, restaurants, and entertainment venues. Therefore, some industries have suffered greatly. influences.

He believes that even if the fourth wave of epidemic strikes again, he believes that the epidemic prevention measures will not return to the most severe stage, and that there will not necessarily be a wave of layoffs at the end of the year.

Li Zhaobo, a senior lecturer at the Business School of CUHK, believes that the employment protection plan can be launched again, but it needs to be targeted.

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Human Resources Consultant: Unexpected increase in unemployment rate

Senior human resources consultant Zhou Qiping believes that the increase in the unemployment rate is expected and reflects the impact of the epidemic, "especially related to industries where people gather." Zhou pointed out that more than 4,000 employers did not continue to apply for the plan. "There must be a reason to apply. One of them is layoffs.” She expects that it will continue to rise in the short term. However, she believes that after the completion of the job protection plan, that is, a real wave of layoffs will occur in December, when the unemployment rate has a chance to rise to 7 to 7.5%.

Senior human resource consultant Zhou Qiping.

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Unemployed population approaching 260,000 unions to promote assistance

Wu Min'er, chairman of the Trade Union Union, believes that the number of unemployed is approaching 260,000, which bluntly says that the figure is "exaggerated", but it still does not fully reflect the plight of working people, including those who take unpaid leave and have greatly reduced their income.

Cathay Pacific has announced layoffs long ago, and she is worried that other companies will also announce one after another, "September will still be counted, and the truth will be seen in October." It urged the government to set up unemployment assistance to help the unemployed in a targeted manner.

The unemployment rate rose to 6.4% from July to September, and the unemployed army approaches 260,000

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