Editor's Note:
Carlos Alberto Montaner is a writer, journalist, and contributor to CNN en Español.
His columns are published in dozens of newspapers in Spain, the USA and Latin America.
Montaner is also vice president of the Liberal International.
The ideas expressed in this comment are solely his own.
See more articles like this at CNNE.com/opinion.
(CNN Spanish) -
Most of the US presidential elections in the 20th century had an electoral turnout of less than 60%.
This can be attributed to an apathetic society, or perhaps to the certainty that the institutions are very strong and the result will not affect the potential voter, who will be protected by the laws and the Constitution.
You never know.
Roughly speaking, turnout has ranged from 48.9% of the electorate - less than half of those registered - during Calvin Coolidge's election in 1924, to 65.4% in 1908, when Americans anointed William H. Taft.
Now it appears that the tradeoff between Donald Trump and Joe Biden in the November 3 election would also attract a high percentage of the electorate.
With two weeks to go before the election, impressive early voting figures show increased voter interest in this option and in the elections in general.
As of Monday, early votes accounted for 20% of the total 2016 vote, according to a poll of election officials conducted by CNN, Edison Research and Catalist.
Why would this phenomenon occur?
Because the two candidates have been given to say that this will be the ultimate choice between two ways of life, and President Trump has managed to create a very dramatic atmosphere in the usually laid-back and predictable American society.
He is, as has been said, a "polarizing" figure.
Donald Trump accuses the Democrats, without foundation, of being socialists and of wanting to create a Venezuela in the country of Washington and Lincoln, while Joe Biden and Kamala Harris emphatically deny it.
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This we know about the investigation against Hunter Biden 5:21
What do the polls say?
The analyst Nate Silver and the journalist Galen Druke, who publish an average of the polls on the FiveThirtyEight portal daily, affirm that, as of Tuesday, the Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden had a double-digit lead nationally, and that he would also win in several of the states with an uncertain electoral trend, the so-called “swing states”.
My personal prognosis is that Biden and Harris will win.
How much?
I think they will approach 300 votes in the Electoral College.
It only takes 270 to succeed.
Of course, we will have to wait for November 3.
That is the only survey that is worth.
Donald TrumpJoe Biden