The president plays the wild man
For US President Donald Trump it is slowly but surely getting tight.
If the current polls are correct, he faces a heavy defeat against his challenger Joe Biden on November 3rd.
In this final phase of the election campaign, the time is Trump's greatest enemy, he has to somehow turn the race around, otherwise he may be able to pack his bags in the White House.
He had an opportunity on Thursday in the second and last TV duel.
The two opponents will meet in Nashville, Tennessee.
It is uncertain whether Trump can take the opportunity to convince undecided voters.
First, it appears that there are hardly any voters who do not know who to vote for.
And secondly, Trump's last, very unsuccessful duel has hardly changed anything in terms of the state of the race.
This could show that history does not repeat itself after all.
In 2016, Trump was able to overtake his rival Hillary Clinton in the last few meters with a legendary catch-up.
Trump and his people want to recreate that last minute swing, but with each passing day the endeavor seems more and more hopeless.
US President Donald Trump speaks to reporters aboard Air Force One
Photo: Alex Brandon / AP
Trump's anger over his situation can be seen.
It lashes out wildly, like the famous "loose cannon" that breaks loose on the ship's deck in a storm.
He attacks the pandemic expert Anthony Fauci, although he is extremely respected among the people.
He once again stylized himself as a victim of evil machinations by accusing the impartial organizers of the TV debate of conspiring against him (which is not true).
And he calls on his Attorney General, William Barr, to investigate Biden for corruption (for which there is no basis).
Usually only people like Vladimir Putin or dictators in third-class banana republics come up with such ideas in election campaigns.
Will all of this save Trump?
With the Democrats, strategists warn that one should not underestimate how close the race could be.
There they are traumatized by 2016 and fear that Trump might manage to win again.
One thing is certain: the elections have already started in many states.
Citizens can cast their votes before November 3rd, not only by letter, but also in person.
The electoral authorities report new participation records every day.
Trump hopes that it will be his fans who enthusiastically flock to the ballot boxes by the hundreds of thousands.
But it can also be the other way around.
The jobs are already being distributed in the Biden warehouse
One can roughly imagine what Trump would do if he was re-elected.
It would probably continue as before, only worse.
But assuming Biden won the election, what would his government be like?
Biden has fought his entire election campaign by promising to be a president "for all Americans".
He wants the country to be one.
For a possible Biden government, this means that it could put together an extremely colorful cabinet that includes all sorts of groups - including Republicans.
The first names for the new, bipartisan government are already being traded, including John Kasich.
The former Republican governor of Ohio, who made his support for Biden public at the Democratic Party conference, is on the shortlist, according to "Politico".
Likewise, Jeff Flake, a former Republican Senator from Arizona who is at odds with Donald Trump.
John Kasich was once the governor of the state of Ohio
Photo: Michael Reynolds / dpa
Of course, Biden would also have to involve the left and minorities, which is why the Left Senator Elizabeth Warren is also under discussion for a cabinet position, as is civil rights activist Stacey Abrams from Georgia.
Pete Buttigieg is also traded for a position.
The former mayor of South Bend in the state of Indiana stands for rather moderate political positions.
Susan Rice, former National Security Advisor under President Barack Obama, is under discussion for the job of Secretary of State.
What the polls say
It doesn't stop: Right now there are two, three, four new surveys almost every day.
Little changes in the general trend.
Joe Biden is still well ahead of Donald Trump on the average of all surveys on the survey portal Fivethirtyeight.
He currently leads with 10.3 percentage points.
Of the many bad polls for Trump in the past few days, there was only one that could give him a little hope.
The IDB / TIPP institute sees a significantly smaller gap between the counterparties.
Here Biden "only" leads with 49 percent, Trump at least 46 percent.
Trump can still win, say the Fivethirtyeight augurs.
His chance of victory is only slightly lower than the probability of throwing a one straight away on a six-sided die.
In other words, Trump's chances of victory are slightly better than the chance it will rain in downtown Los Angeles.
It only rains there 36 days a year.
The campaign character of the week
, a poll
from the Cook Political Report
, is one of the many exciting experts who should definitely be followed on Twitter in this election campaign
He always delves deeply into the survey results at the grassroots level, in the states through to individual counties.
He smells trends and immediately notices changes in the political mood.
One of Wasserman's interesting observations from these days: He oracles that on the evening of November 3, with the help of an election result, the entire election result can be anticipated very early.
It's about a county in Florida called Sumter County.
There are parts of the gigantic senior citizens' residence "The Villages", a separate town for pensioners with villas, golf courses and shopping malls.
Wasserman's tip now goes like this: Trump must win Florida if he wants to remain president.
In Sumter County, Republicans are traditionally strong, with Trump also doing well in the 2016 election.
However, according to surveys, Trump's support among the important electorate of seniors is crumbling this year, among other things because of his corona policy.
Most of the votes in Sumter are counted early on election evening, and numbers can already be available shortly after 7 p.m. (local time).
Trump will certainly win there, but if the margins change to his disadvantage compared to the last election, that would be a bad omen for him.
Wasserman's prediction for Sumter County: With 66 percent Trump and 33 percent Biden, a close race would be expected across Florida.
At 60 percent Trump and 39 percent Biden, this would be an early warning signal of catastrophic losses for Trump in the group of white seniors - and a sign that Biden beckons overall victory in Florida and across the country.
What is happening on social media?
Unfortunately, the nonsense in this election campaign sometimes knows no bounds, especially not when the name Trump appears in it and the word Twitter.
This story shows: It all started when Eric Trump, the president's son, posted an aerial photo of a handsome mansion in Delaware that he claimed belonged to Joe Biden.
The sub-message was clear: Biden is corrupt, he lives in an expensive house that he could only buy with bribes.
The problem: There is no evidence that Biden is corrupt.
And the house in which he is supposed to live has not belonged to him for years.
Biden bought it for just $ 185,000 in the 1970s and sold it for $ 1.2 million many years later.
A nice sum, but nothing unusual for a longtime US politician.
Now the Democrats are kidding Eric Trump and jokingly posting pictures of houses where Joe Biden allegedly lives.
These include the Biltmore Estate of the Vanderbilt Dynasty in North Carolina, the Disney World castle in Orlando and the Taj Mahal in India.
After all, there has to be a bit of fun.
Our US stories of the week
I would like to recommend these two stories from our US election campaign team over the last few days:
US Republicans in panic: "If Trump loses, there will be a civil war"
US Election Polls: The Shaky Gauge
I wish you a nice week!