Eduardo Paladini
10/21/2020 10:54 AM
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 10/21/2020 10:54
If the Buenos Aires elections were today, Together for Change (JxC) should not have major inconveniences in obtaining a victory.
A consulting firm evaluated the
positive image of 19 leaders
of national relevance in the
City
and of the first 10, 9 are from that space.
More complicated is the opposition scene in the
GBA
.
Or, seen in another way, it is more favorable for the Front of All (FdT): of the 7 above, 5 belong to it.
In the
interior
of the country, meanwhile, preferences appear more mixed.
The data comes from a survey by
Real Time Data (RTD)
, a consulting firm created last year that makes daily update measurements.
It is led by
Nicolás Solari
, political scientist and former Poliarquía.
They have institutional clients, some of them foreign funds.
The latest study, of
861
online
cases
, was conducted between September 28 and October 4, with a margin of error of +/- 4%.
From that initial screenshot two other conclusions jump: the good moment of the Buenos Aires head of government, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, who
leads the three tables
;
and the other side of the head of the FdT bench in Deputies, Máximo Kirchner, who
is last in two
(CABA and Interior).
Another one who has
to worry
is Mauricio Macri: he is the worst in the GBA and in the City he does not enter the
top ten
.
The fight in CABA
As anticipated at the beginning of the note, the dominance of Together for Change in the district is overwhelming.
Larreta obtains the best
positive
evaluation
of all there:
70%
.
And he is followed by three leaders who sound like candidates in the district: former governor María Eugenia Vidal (58% positive, for the moment closer to running in Province in 2021), Buenos Aires senator Martín Lousteau (56%, who in 2023 could repeat the attempt for the Head of Government) and the head of the PRO, Patricia Bullrich (50%, variant for Deputies in CABA for next year).
The
top 10 of the City
is completed by former minister Roberto Lavagna (8th, with 45%) and five other members of JxC: the leader of the Civic Coalition, Elisa Carrió (5th, 49%), the Cordovan deputy Mario Negri (6th, 47%), former senator Miguel Pichetto (7th, 46%), former Buenos Aires deputy Emilio Monzó (9th, 44%) and Jujuy governor, Gerardo Morales (10th, 37%, same percentage than the economist José Luis Espert).
v 1.5
Image of politicians in CABA
Positive valuation percentage.
Tap to explore the data
Source:
RTD
Infographic:
Clarín
And Macri?
It shares the
12th
position
(36% positive), with President Alberto Fernández and the Buenos Aires Minister of Security, Sergio Berni.
Mitigating for the former president of Cambiemos: prior to the 2019 election, he also had a regular assessment in the district and yet he won the election there with ease.
Pollsters repeat it: image is not synonymous with vote, neither in favor nor against.
Anyway, Macri has already warned that he will not run in 2021.
The bottom part of the Buenos Aires ranking is completed by the Buenos Aires governor, Axel Kicillof (15th, 32% positive);
Cristina Kirchner, Juan Schiaretti and Sergio Massa (16th, all three with 28%) and
Máximo K closes
, with 27%.
The fight in the GBA
The other side of the Buenos Aires ranking, of course, is Greater Buenos Aires.
As if the AMBA were the same economic and health region for the coronavirus, but with
an unbreakable political border
.
One of the few coincidences is that this image table in the
Conurbano is also led by Larreta
.
As Clarín advanced, that good assessment of the Buenos Aires head of government among voters of the Frente de Todos, especially since the pandemic started, explained the attack of the ruling party K against his figure.
Verbal and with cut of funds
.
Larreta has the GBA 69% positive, followed by Alberto F. (2nd, 60%), Lavagna (3rd, 54%), Kicillof (4th, 53%), Berni (5th, 51) and Massa ( 6th, 50%).
Some conclusions:
- Despite the steady decline since late April,
the President continues to be among the best-weighted leaders
.
-
Lavagna
, at one point, is the
reverse of Macri
: good image in many districts but few votes (at least in 2019).
- The
Buenos Aires governor,
who also comes with falls,
is sustained in the Conurbano
.
v 1.5
Image of politicians in GBA
Positive valuation percentage.
Tap to explore the data
Source:
RTD
Infographic:
Clarín
-
Berni
has a
reasonable assessment
, not only in the GBA, and that encourages him to be a candidate.
-
Massa
, who suffered great wear and tear since its splendor in 2013, also confirms its
strength in the Province
.
The
top 10
is completed by Cristina (7th, 49%), Lousteau (8th, 47%), Máximo K (9th, 43%) and Vidal (10th, 38%).
Beyond being in the middle up,
the former governor is poor
, for the district that she managed until less than a year ago and where she could run again.
The
bottom part of
the Buenos Aires ranking is
populated by JxC leaders
: P. Bullrich (11th, 37%), Carrió (12th, 35%), Monzó (13th, 33%), Negri and Pichetto (14%, 33%), Morales (16th, 32%), Espert (17th, 28%, also scarce if you plan to run in the Province).
Last are Schiaretti and Macri
, both with
25%
.
Consolation for the governor of Córdoba: his level of knowledge is much lower than that of the former president.
The fight inside
In the interior of the country, the bid is a little more distributed.
But
some topics are repeated
:
-
Larreta leads again
, in this case with 61% positive.
-
Lavagna
is again
above
(2nd, 54%).
v 1.5
Image of politicians in the Interior
Positive valuation percentage.
Tap to explore the data
Source:
RTD
Infographic:
Clarín
-
Vidal
confirms that he is doing
better inside than outside the province
of Buenos Aires (3rd, 51%).
-
Lousteau
completes his
good general average
(he shares position and numbers with Vidal).
-
Alberto F.
also
passed
this table (6th, with 50%).
-
Macri
(17th, 32%) and
Máximo K
(last, 30%)
do not raise
.