US Elections: Looking to the Day After | Israel Today

Tonight there will be a final confrontation between the candidates • Trump will try and present an optimistic vision • In doing so Biden may lose the card he has left • Commentary

• Preparations for the latest confrontation are at their peak

  Photography: 

  AFP

Less than a day before the second presidential confrontation in Nashville, Tennessee, everyone is thinking of only one thing: what will happen the day after.

The confrontation itself, certainly the content of things, is already less interesting.

Because what else can the candidates innovate?

This year, more than ever, the atmosphere, momentum and energies that the candidates will demonstrate are what will set the tone of the last and critical two weeks. 

The last two weeks are always the two weeks when voters are most attentive and interested, and most importantly - they are also the most sensitive to any development (like James Comey's letter about the Clinton FBI investigation, which changed everything towards the end of October 2016).

Although Biden's (still) polls, it was yesterday that Nate Silver's website came out with a surprising article: Trump is gaining momentum among blacks and Hispanics.

This is another indication that despite the president's relatively scattered campaign, the Republican Party for the past four years has run an impressive organization that is now bearing fruit: from enrolling people in the Florida constituency, where Trump enjoys an advantage among Cubans who can decide the election, to voting and voting. (By the way, in this measure of support signs, which should not be underestimated, Trump defeats Biden).  

The first confrontation between Trump and Baiden // Archive photo: Reuters

How appropriate it was that the Conflict Committee chose Nashville as the place where the confrontation would take place that would give the finishing chord to this chaotic election campaign.

Nashville is also the city of President Andrew Jackson, the first populist president to fight the war of the hard-forgotten citizens of the day, who was elected president in a turbulent election campaign and whose presidency was no less turbulent. 

Trump sees himself largely as a modern-day Jackson when it comes to fighting for the "simple man."

Jackson created a new era in American politics, a social change that shaped America's character for a long time, in which many of those who could not make their voices heard - as landless - finally received political representation.

American industry, too, has become less dependent on imports from Europe.

And most importantly for Trump - Jackson has served two terms.

The confrontation in Nashville tonight is between Trump and Biden, but the election is between Trump and Trump.

Both between the new and colorful Trump of 2016, and Trump who is on the defensive in 2020. In 2016, Trump was lucky to have a candidate against him who campaigned for him: she made mistake after mistake and displayed extreme coldness towards the common citizen.

Trump of 2020 has not yet been able to find an effective and consistent message, and can not rely on Biden's mistakes, because voters are indifferent to the Democratic candidate, for better or worse.

Trump hopes tonight will reinvent himself.

His advisers even said he would let Biden talk relatively much, and perhaps that would make America think again about whether Biden is devoid of energy and passionate about the battle he is who she wants as president.

It's a gamble, but it's his only card right now in a confrontation. 

Biden, for his part, hopes Nashville will not abuse him as she did for another vice president in American history: Al Gore in 2000. While everyone remembers the never-ending countdown in Florida that year, many forget that Gore could have won even without Florida, if only he had done everything nominated. Political should do: win at home.

If Gore had won in Greater Nashville, in his state, he would have had enough electors to be president. 

Biden is not from Tennessee like Al Gore, so he has no chance of winning the southern state that has been in the Republicans' pocket for years.

But he hopes Tennessee, who ended Vice President Gore's career, will give him the final boost tonight, the burst of energy he so lacks during the campaign (and not just because he avoided big arrests) and disappears from the screen ahead of the confrontation.

He hopes that at least his appearance in the confrontation will turn the flattering polls into a moment of optimism that anyone who wants to oust an incumbent president must if he wants to win (Carter in 1976, Reagan in 1980, Clinton in 1992 - won because of the optimism they broadcast and branded themselves as the complete opposite From the incumbent president for all his flaws.

The citizens are enthusiastic

Trump is coming to this city with one hope: to reboot the race and get out of the confrontation with a catchy and compelling soundbeat that will let the indifferent voters in his camp, and especially those disappointed in him, nod in agreement.

His success in 2016 was not necessarily in convincing the undecided (those were waiting for the last minute as in any election), but in being able to reassure Republican skeptics.

In the last two weeks of the 2016 election, he managed to "bring home" millions of right-wing voters.

If he presents an optimistic vision, he may drop the only card Biden uses, the longing for change that is present in every election. 

The corona virus, which affects every area of ​​our lives as well as the conflict and journalists like me, who cover it (pre-screening of everyone who enters the University of Belmont campus) failed to hurt the enthusiasm of the citizens here ahead of the election.

This is evidenced by the 40 million Americans who have already voted.

Partial information shows that most of them are Democrats, but that means nothing, because Republicans tend to vote on Election Day.

Also, in important Florida, early voting seems to be shared equally between the two camps. 

The Fox network reported yesterday on a poll that found that more than 60 percent of Trump supporters in the state of New Hampshire would not put yard signs on it or stickers on the bumper of their car, for fear of being harassed.

Only 38 percent of Biden's supporters in the state said a similar thing.

The gaps are narrowing

The IBD poll, which was able to predict Trump's victory in 2016, shows a close gap at the national level between the candidates, and if you segment the voters, you can see that the huge advantage that Biden had among older and suburban voters continues to shrink.

The drift towards Trump may not be the same as in 2016, but everything is still open. 

And it should be remembered that U.S. voters do not like to oust a president who did good to them. Especially out-of-pocket voters, who saw how their retirement savings went up and up under Trump. In addition, according to one famous pollster, many Republicans, as in 2016, are still openly afraid to say Supporters of Trump.  

If Trump does an effective campaign, he will bring 2016 voters back home.

If that wasn’t enough, earlier this month a Gallup poll showed that most Americans believe he will win, including 56% of independent voters, who are most important.

This means that many may be angry at him - because of the corona, because of the provocativeness and because it is not as exciting as in 2016 - but still do not rule him out, and are willing to give him a chance if he proves himself in the next two weeks.