This is Nashville a few hours from the last debate 2:00
(CNN) -
President Donald Trump's time is running out.
He's trailing Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden in most national state polls and on the battlefield, making the latest debate this Thursday night the incumbent's last best chance to change the trajectory of a race that, with less than two weeks to the elections, seems to favor the challenger.
After an initial showdown that quickly turned into a glorified screaming match, with Trump repeatedly interrupting Biden and stomping on the moderator, the second debate, scheduled for last week, was called off after the president tested positive for the coronavirus and he subsequently refused to take part in a virtual meeting.
This is Nashville a few hours from the last debate 2:00
On this occasion, the Presidential Debates Commission has given the green light to a face-to-face confrontation, but with an unprecedented change: the candidates will have their microphone muted while their opponents answer the first question of each of the six debate segments .
Topics scheduled for discussion for 90 uninterrupted minutes, beginning at 9 pm ET, include "Fighting COVID-19," "American Families," "Race in America," "Climate Change," "National Security," and "Leadership. ».
But that's where the moderator, NBC's Kristen Welker, will start.
Where the candidates will go from there, especially in Trump's case, is uncertain.
advertising
Here are five things to keep in mind in the debate:
Joe Biden, former president and Democratic candidate for the US presidency, released his 2019 tax returns on Tuesday.
Will Trump Trample the New Rules?
To enforce the rule of debate, the commission has turned to something familiar in a country that operates by video conferencing: the mute button.
But there are questions about how effective the new railings really will be.
The Trump campaign has suggested that the amount of time will make Biden speak out against himself.
True or not, past performance suggests that Trump lacks the self-control to sit still and find out.
If you try to interrupt, your voice could be picked up by Biden's microphone.
Trump and Biden will be muted microphones in second debate 0:37
The president's sense of grievance over the changes could also lead him to lash out at Welker.
His campaign has already attacked the commission, and the president has a history of launching sexist attacks against moderators.
Trump and his allies have been preparing their plans to attack Welker and the commission by breaking the rules whenever they can.
The way Trump executes that strategy could provide voters who have yet to cast their vote their last memory of the president before making a decision.
LOOK: ANALYSIS | Obama scathingly scolds Trump before final debate
Coronavirus on the rise
Trump wants to avoid the constant beating of news about the coronavirus.
Growing numbers across the country, including swing states critical to their victory, make it impossible.
The national increase is significant: Johns Hopkins University found that the United States reported more than 60,000 new cases on Tuesday and 58,000 on Monday, prompting public health experts to refer to this time as a third increase in infections.
China starts vaccination program against covid-19 4:13
Politically, however, the numbers in swing states are even more dire.
Both case and death numbers are on the rise in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa and Michigan, all swing states critical to Trump's reelection.
The waves are also dominating local news coverage, meaning that most voters head to the polls with frequent reminders of the ongoing pandemic.
That is a problem for Trump.
The virus has dominated the 2020 elections, forcing both candidates to rethink the way they campaign, especially after Trump himself contracted the virus.
But Trump has shown recent signs of deep-seated anger over the focus on the virus, criticizing journalists for covering the pandemic and even abruptly ending an interview with 60 Minutes when many of the questions focused on the virus.
The coronavirus remains the most important issue on the minds of voters.
How Trump handles questions on the issue will have significant implications for this election.
MIRA: After leaving Venezuela, this father will vote for Trump, and one of his sons, for Biden
Biden tries to pass one more test
Thursday night's debate is effectively the last major hurdle for Biden, a candidate who, despite his reputation for mistakes and a few minor bumps along the way, has largely clung to the same message since launching his campaign in April 2019.
In the final weeks of the 2020 race, Biden is required to delicately handle some questions about how he would govern.
The most persistent he has dodged: If he would back the push by some progressives to add seats to a Supreme Court that could soon see a 6-3 conservative majority.
Obama Campaigns for Joe Biden in Philly 3:27
He has moved those talks to safer political ground, focusing on policy issues such as the future of Obamacare protections for those with pre-existing conditions rather than handing over campaign ammunition to Trump to paint Biden as a tool of the progressive wing of his match.
By delivering solid performances in debates and interviews, Biden has also avoided any moment that might seem, to an audience of millions, something akin to the mental decline that the Trump campaign has baselessly blamed on the 77-year-old former vice president.
The daily routine of speeches and interactions with reporters in the election campaign that will follow Thursday night's debate will not be seen by any public close to the audience that will tune in to the debate.
If Biden comes out largely unscathed, and he likely will, he will have successfully overcome every key moment with the potential to alter the dynamics of a presidential race that polls show he is winning.
MIRA: Analysis | Two words that explain why Donald Trump is losing in the face of the presidential election
How will Biden handle Trump's personal attacks?
In the right-wing alternate media universe, Biden is currently embroiled in scandal, most of it centering on unproven allegations about his son Hunter Biden.
There is also a bogus "Obamagate" conspiracy theory that Trump has promoted, even though all of its foundations have been toppled in the real world.
None of that appears to have stirred voters who are not yet part of Trump's base, and targeting Biden's surviving son could also backfire.
But Trump will surely try to use it all to attack Biden, a candidate who has at times shown a strong temper.
LOOK: Debate Commission will silence presidential candidates to avoid interruptions
Will Biden respond aggressively, pointing to this week's New York Times report that Trump maintains a bank account in China under a corporate name or that his own children and businesses have benefited financially from his presidency?
Or will he try not to be fooled, showing voters his enthusiasm for taking the right path, while potentially leaving some of Trump's attacks unanswered?
To whom are Trump and Biden addressing their final messages?
With early in-person voting kicking off and millions of Americans casting their ballots by mail, the number of undecided voters still up for grabs is probably much less than a few weeks ago.
Even in more conventional circumstances, debates are as much about getting your message across to potential followers as it is about "winning" the discussion on a given topic.
New crew travels to the International Space Station 0:45
Trump in his recent speeches has made clear that he is unsettled by poll numbers that suggest his support among voters and suburban women is waning.
He will likely address the dynamic on Thursday night, but his challenge will be to make a coherent and compelling case to those voters, and not, as he has done before, simply complain about the trend or get lost in conspiracy theories.
Biden also has work to do, primarily with Latino and black voters.
They support it with large margins, but not at the level that Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama enjoyed.
If Biden can energize that traditional base of Democratic support, he will be better positioned heading into Election Day.
Otherwise, your margin for error becomes much smaller.
