It is a game of chess in which the two contenders for the American presidential election engage.
One favors evangelical Christians, the other counts on the "black vote" ... Donald Trump and Joe Biden have both made the bet to address certain voters rather than others to better conquer the ten states in which the ballot is taking place.
"The candidates have fairly fine statistics on the demography of each constituency, residential segregation remaining fairly strong across the United States,"
explains Paul Schor, professor-researcher at the University of Paris, specialist in American minorities and demography .
"This allows them to target certain categories of the population."
Before maturity,
Le Figaro
was interested in the voters to whom the two candidates are aimed more particularly.
Read also: United States: Are the Republicans seeking to restrict minority voting?
Evangelists.
They represent a quarter of the population.
Throughout his tenure, the president has pampered the country's roughly 95 million evangelical Protestants.
The Republican is counting on them to extend his stay in the White House by four years.
His running mate, Vice President Mike Pence, is himself from their ranks.
"It is very easy to mobilize them for the elections"
, notes Paul Schor.
"Evangelists are 'single-issue voters' who determine their choice based on the candidates' position on the right to abortion."
Evangelical Christians are committed to the republican cause.
They voted 81% for Donald Trump in 2016. He has since placed two judges opposed to abortion at the Supreme Court, not to mention the appointment of Amy Coney Barrett currently hearing in the Senate.
Evangelists also welcome Trump's conciliatory policies toward Israel.
"Paradoxically more than American Jews who are in the majority Democrats",
notes the researcher.
Black voters.
Democrat Joe Biden owes them a lot.
If the former vice-president won the Democratic nomination after a series of humiliating defeats in February, it is in part thanks to the mobilization of black voters in South Carolina and then during Super Tuesday.
The "black vote", 12% of voters, is part of the electoral base of the Democratic Party.
According to the Pew Resarch Center, 83% of black voters declared themselves Democrats or rather Democrats last year.
However, in 2016, they had moved less for Hillary Clinton than during the two previous presidential elections.
What will it be this year?
The Democrat made several missteps against them during the campaign.
Some of his past positions on racial segregation were criticized during the primaries.
"The younger generation, more progressive than their elders, is less favorable to centrist Joe Biden,"
adds Paul Schor.
In the wake of the Black Lives Matter movement, it could fail to mobilize against Donald Trump more than for Joe Biden. ”
Latinos.
For the first time, Hispanics form the largest minority on the electoral roll.
A record 32 million Latinos are expected to vote on November 3, according to the Pew Research Center.
The Hispanic vote nevertheless appears more divided.
In 2019, 63% of them declared themselves Democrats and 29% leaned more towards the Republican side.
With some local peculiarities.
In Florida, the Cuban diaspora, marked by anti-astrism, traditionally votes for the Grand Old Party's presidential candidate.
This is all the more true this year as Donald Trump tightened the embargo on the island.
But the influx of Puerto Ricans after Hurricane Maria significantly changed the electoral demographics of the island.
Joe Biden also traveled last month to a Puerto Rican stronghold near Orlando to offer his aid plan for the stricken territory.
“Some markers are more decisive than others,
also nuances Paul Schor.
Evangelical Latinos are likely to be more determined on the issue of abortion than on that of immigration. ”
Workers.
Four years ago, skilled tradesmen tipped the scales in Donald Trump's favor in three key Rust Belt states: Michigan, Wisconcin and Pennsylvania.
"Although a newbie in politics, Donald Trump had been smarter than Hillary Clinton, who thought these traditionally Democratic voters won over to his cause,"
recalls the researcher.
As a result, 52% of white union workers voted Trump against 39% for his rival, according to the Harvard Cooperative Congressional Election Study.
These same workers are four years later still at the heart of the battle.
To bring them back into the Democratic fold, Joe Biden notably visited his home state of Pennsylvania 13 times and devoted five of his trips to union issues.
“Middle Class Joe” - his own nickname - readily underlines his humble origins compared to the wealth of his opponent.
A
“Scranton vs.
Park Avenue, ”
he skillfully sums up.
Seniors.
They too had helped bring Donald Trump to the White House.
The over 65s, traditionally Republicans, had preferred the billionaire to Hillary Clinton - at 53% against 45% according to the Pew Research Center.
This time they could deprive him of it.
"The management of the pandemic by the White House and the issue of health insurance, of which they are large consumers, could tip them in favor of Joe Biden,"
said Paul Schor.
To better convince them, the Democrat pointed to the risks weighing on Obamacare in the midst of the pandemic with the appointment of a new conservative judge to the Supreme Court.
Because retirees represent nearly one in four voters this year, a figure that has not been observed since 1970. They are notably brought up to date an important role in Florida where they are more than one in three voters.
According to a Quinnipac poll from October 7, Joe Biden leads here with a 15-point lead among the over-65s.
Suburban housewives.
"Could you love me, please?"
In Pennsylvania, Donald Trump recently pleaded with suburban housewives to vote for him.
Throughout the campaign, the candidate courted them assiduously.
In an August column in the
Wall Street Journal
, he had already pledged to protect American residential suburbs.
Despite his declaration of love, these voters seem to escape him four years later.
In the pivotal states, where the battle for the suburbs promises to be decisive, the Republican is even 23 points behind them, according to the
New York Times
.
The image of residential suburbs returned by Donald Trump does not quite correspond to reality.
“In Arizona, many families come from California.
Same in Texas.
These newcomers, often university graduates, arrive with their different ideas
,
”
explains the researcher.
It remains to be seen which of the two candidates addressed the right voters.
Answer on November 3.
