10/22/2020 11:41 PM
Updated 10/22/2020 11:41 PM
The latest measures against the dollar
do not work.
The blue has no ceiling and the wholesale financial ticket continues to climb prices: the gap exceeded 130%.
The green tsunami has already arrived.
This Thursday caused multiple meetings at the Casa Rosada.
There was a meeting at the Central Bank and permanent contact between Martín Guzmán and the President.
In Miguel Pesce's team, the decisions are questioned: for the BCRA, the change of course proposed by Guzmán
goes straight to failure.
In the Palacio de Hacienda they counter-hit: Guzmán demanded time for the package to mature and begin to give results.
He spoke about it the same Tuesday - late at night - with Alberto Fernández.
That day the new provisions debuted without success.
The financial bill came to $ 190.
The minister had a different diagnosis: he told the President that the first signs were adequate and now we would have to wait for the decisions to bear fruit.
Financial bills –blue and counted with liquid– did not stop rising, and a
seized the banks and businessmen: that the “perfect storm” had already reached the Argentine economy.
This Thursday a disturbing report circulated on Wall Street.
This is a secret job of JP Morgan.
It has three faces and was prepared by the economist Diego Pereira.
It states the following: "The gap has widened, to the extent that
official measures fail to stabilize the economy
The President accepted Guzmán's explanations.
But he sent a political message to the convulsed interior of the Frente de Todos.
Alberto gave Guzmán a specific deadline: exactly 15 days
, which expire in the first days of November.
In this fortnight, the minister would have to show concrete results.
Time is not capricious: Guzmán trusts that the dollar can be stabilized with the bidding of bonds for 750 million dollars.
The question is controversial.
The opposition suspects that there may be a favoritism for the Pimco and Templenton funds.
Roberto Lavagna had already noticed the issue and questioned transforming debt in pesos into obligations in dollars.
Guzmán fights back: he says they
will be transparent tenders
for all investors and funds.
The "wolves" of Wall Street want to know where the Government is going and as a whole they say that the dollar problem is not only economic.
In confidential reports from Manhattan they admit that there is an epicenter:
the minimum level of reserves
of the BCRA.
These "papers" affirm that freely available reserves range between US $ 200 million and that –according to finer calculations- they would already be
negative at US $ 450 million.
But the bankers insist that the solutions require a central question:
a political response, and not just an economic one,
from the Casa Rosada.
In other words: resolve the growing political conflict in the Frente de Todos and that the Casa Rosada retake the initiative.
Know who's boss
For the “sharks” of Manhattan, the severity of the crisis requires four actions:
Rethink the Cabinet
and that these figures reflect political support from the Frente de Todos.
Restructure and homogeneous the economic team.
A monetary and fiscal plan
with the agreement of the IMF.
Only within this framework,
an adjustment of the official exchange rate
Devaluing without a plan would be suicidal.
This tough recipe is shared by businessmen in Argentina.
This Thursday, the Argentine Bondholders Committee spoke in this regard.
In the UIA, Adeba and the Stock Exchange say that the die is cast and that Alberto must act urgently to minimize the costs of the adjustment.
The prestigious Aldo Ferrer defined it like this: stabilization plans in Argentina.
Emanuel Alvarez Agis spoke in a reserved YPF meeting: to the extent that corrections are delayed, the chances of losing the election increase for the Frente de Todos.
Alberto would have distanced himself from Cristina
Between the two - now - there is a gutted by the economic crisis and the dollar.
The vice president makes an inflexible criticism for the lack of management.
Repeat: "This is not working."
The President reproaches him for trying to mark the field for him through his spokesmen or emissaries.
Alberto Fernández would have replied:
"I know about economics, let me do it."
Later, the President said in Olivos: "Cristina is not going to interfere in the economy."
Alberto spent five hours meeting with Sergio Massa.
The leader of the Frente Renovador made a very critical analysis.
The dialogue was frank and they never spoke of the version about his possible entry into the Cabinet.
Massa told his people:
"I am not moving from the Chamber of Deputies."
Massa called a convention of his own - in November - of the Renewing Front.
Several governors also asked the President
to "get the market back on track."
The lackluster "league of governors" - they are all under the bed - wants Roberto Lavagna in the Palacio de Hacienda.
The former minister flirts and maintains a fluid dialogue with Alberto.
At the last meeting he
suggested various ideas and names of economists.
But to enter the government, two questions would have to be given: have broad political powers and
bury the anachronistic economic and diplomatic ideas of the Patria Institute.
In those meetings, Alberto confided that the strategy of the last measures was to make a “by-pass” until reaching an agreement with the IMF.
The Fund was a "cuckoo" in the electoral campaign and the father of all problems;
now he became the main ally.
The strategy of the Palacio de Hacienda is
The IMF wants a global program, before blessing the rescheduling of unpaid debt.
Spokesmen for Washington this Thursday told
: the new mission travels in the second half of November.
In the Quinta de Olivos - not Guzmán - they affirm that something else must be negotiated with the IMF:
a contribution of fresh money
to strengthen reserves.
at the IMF
In Washington there is an internal audit to determine
who were responsible for lending a fortune to Argentina
, which Mauricio Macri squandered without obtaining re-election.
Negotiating with the IMF strengthens Guzmán.
Kristalina Georgieva wants him as an interlocutor and supports his entire management.
On Monday he endorsed the plan of measures.
by the brutal disavowal of the package he announced in September.
Guzmán got tired of repeating the following:
"We are going to do the opposite of what the BCRA did."
Pesce also had to agree to delegate powers and transfer exchange coordination to Economy.
It happened after furious criticism of his management.
Another would have resigned, but Pesce did not do it out of loyalty to Alberto and only set a limit:
that he does not devalue.
Now things have been reversed: the BCRA questions Guzmán's measures, which do not make a difference.
At a board meeting, he would have said:
"I sit on the platform to wait 15 days."
The BCRA maintains that Guzmán opened the floodgates for the massive outflow of funds.
Also, that generates something else: it
restored the demand for savings dollar
, to take advantage of the business that reinstated the increase in the gap.
Guzmán resists the attacks and disqualifies the BCRA.
But the fight reflects something else.
Both express - at the highest level of decision - opposing recipes to tame the dollar.
So far both have not been right.
It involves a
fight and confusion to find a way out
: the path of the exchange rate.