The corona pandemic has suddenly changed our lives and will continue to do so in the future.
Effects on the real estate market can already be seen.
Which, however, raises further questions.
The corona crisis affects all areas of our life.
We felt the consequences in working life immediately - keyword: home office.
But there is also a trend in the real estate market.
Munich - Finding an apartment in the bacon belt around
Munich *
: not easy, but feasible.
At least easier than in the city.
Corona * is
now changing
the situation: According to a study, the
pandemic
has
significantly aggravated
the
real estate market in the surrounding area
.
The market research institute of the Real Estate Association Germany analyzed the development from January to July 2020. The result: The new offers in the western and southern region fell by a fifth, in Starnberg the market even collapsed by 44 percent.
Not until July did he slowly recover.
What does the real estate market have to do with Corona?
A lot, if only from a practical point of view:
no visits were made
during the
lockdown
.
Offering offers on real estate portals hardly made sense.
But there are also long-term causes.
"The corona crisis has probably caused
uncertainty
among many providers,
" says Stephan Kippes.
In addition to his professorship for real estate marketing at the Nürtingen-Geislingen University, he heads the IVD market research institute, which evaluated sales portals for analysis.
Some people willing to
sell
, according to Kippes, may have waited to see what would happen to their
job during the crisis *
.
And some saw no safer way to reinvest sales proceeds afterwards.
+
Suspected uncertainty among providers of real estate: Stephan Kippes is very familiar with the housing market.
© Markus Götzfried
Real estate market in the Corona crisis: Home office could be a factor in moving to the surrounding area
“Concrete gold” has been considered
a safe investment
far away from the
city of Munich
since yesterday
, as the banks cannot offer investments with significant
interest rates
.
However, since Corona there has been another factor that could also
reduce
the offer in the surrounding area:
home office
.
“The pandemic has given home office a new meaning,” explains Kippes.
While many employers in Munich previously placed a high
value on presence
- possibly also in order to be able to better control employees - they have now, according to Kippes, got a taste for: "You can save money and rent, and the shop still runs." Working life went on , thanks to
video conferencing
, employees were able to communicate well.
Sometimes things even went better because some people could concentrate better at home.
“For many employees, working from home is a
real relief,
” says Kippes.
"You save yourself the
stressful commute to the metropolitan area
." This experience could have lasting consequences, he believes.
Sure:
It will probably not be
all about working from
home
, and that is not possible in every job.
"But in many professions you probably wo
n't have to
come
to the office more than three times a week
."
+
Working in your own home: The trend towards home offices could reduce the availability of apartments in the surrounding area.
© Karl-Josef Hildenbrand / dpa
Real estate market in the Corona crisis: the transport network and the climate benefit from moving out of the city
In the long term, this raises the question for some employees: why not
settle permanently in the surrounding area
or even in the country?
This would not only benefit the employees, who
have to pay
less rents and lower travel costs
.
The Munich transport network and the real estate market would also be relieved in the long term.
And last but not least: the
climate
.
But changes also have their disadvantages.
“The long-time residents compete with the newcomers,” explains Kippes.
There will then be a
wave-like price adjustment
.
Because Germering, for example, is exhausted, Landsberg will eventually become the Munich catchment area.
"Actually, something like this happens for years," says Kippes.
The pandemic could
act
as an
accelerator
.
Real estate market in the Corona crisis: More than half of the Bavarian population lives in rural areas
Currently, only
around 25 percent of Germans live
in rural areas.
A study by the UN predicted - even before Corona - an
urban population of 84 percent
for 2050
.
Experts such as Holger Magel, honorary president of the rural area academy and former head of rural administration in the Ministry of Agriculture, views such figures with skepticism: They cannot be transferred to Germany and certainly not
to Bavaria
.
"When you know that this 75 percent urban
population
includes
thousands of municipalities with 5,000 inhabitants
, it becomes clear that this picture is completely wrong," says Magel.
“That's why
more than half of the population
in Bavaria lives
in rural areas
.” The question is: will it stay that way?
You will hardly have to worry about
the
attractive surrounding area south and west of Munich
.
But structurally weaker areas will probably remain behind.
“There are
municipalities in Upper Palatinate and Franconia
where mayors fight for every single inhabitant,” says Kippes.
Who wants to live there - despite dirt cheap rents?
Here you have a
poor structural policy
made.
In terms of infrastructure such as road, rail, but also inns and supermarkets - and last but not least,
broadband expansion
.
And that would come a few years too late in Bavaria, says Kippes: Without a
functioning Internet
, hardly anyone can work in the home office.
Real estate market in the corona crisis: rural areas have to be digitized
For “city refugees”,
villages on the other side of the Bacon Belt
would actually be interesting
, which are too far to drive, but can actually offer the infrastructure: shopping, medical care, secondary schools and last but not least:
culture and gastronomy
.
According to Magel, such communities are particularly interesting as the center of life for young families.
"But there is more to it than that: the end-to-
end digitization of rural areas
so that companies, start-ups, founders and their employees can settle in rural areas and communicate with the world from there." In order for rural communities to benefit, Magel calls for "digital based, independent workplaces in rural regions ”- instead of home office workplaces partially outsourced from the city.
The mandatory goal should be
equal living and working conditions
across the country.
But there is also a
downside
to
this development
, he says.
“It is of little use if the surrounding area is as full as the city after a while.” There are already competing groups for living space in surrounding communities:
the
long-time residents
and the newcomers
.
“Some communities believe that building is the solution.
Others are trying to slow the influx, ”says Magel.
But: "The more living space you create, the more people follow."
+
Believes villages beyond the bacon belt are interesting for young families: Holger Magel is honorary president of the rural area academy.
© fkn
Real estate market in the Corona crisis: No Munich gardeners' place hanging out in the country
Magel not only sees the communities as having an obligation, but also the newcomers: They have to adapt
to the rural lifestyle
.
“It must be clear that
hanging out in
Munich's Gärtnerplatz
looks different in the village.” Anyone who is bothered by cowbells, the smell of manure or church tower bells is simply wrong in the country.
Birgit Noack, 58, deputy chairwoman of the House and Landowners Association Munich and the surrounding area, cannot confirm the
faint hope that
apartments in the state capital will
now be cheaper.
"The housing market is so
overheated and in demand
that not much will happen." Nevertheless, she also believes that Corona and home office will have consequences.
“I think that it
will hit the commercial sector
in particular
.” Many employers would have recognized that they could get by with much smaller offices.
For young families there are now more opportunities to live outside, since the
S-Bahn area is no longer decisive
.
“But many people in Munich will not be able to get out of the city at all - despite their love of nature - even if they do not use the cultural offerings at all.”
(Klaus Mergel) * Merkur.de and tz.de are part of the Ippen-Digital network
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