The victory is announced.
Since Tuesday evening, at nightfall, the Independent Electoral Commission (Céni) has been reporting partial results which draw Alpha Condé by winning the Guinean presidential election of October 18.
Only the figures for three constituencies were missing on Friday, so that the opposition had little chance of being able to catch up on the outgoing president.
Observers have expressed doubts about certain phases of a highly questionable transparency vote.
"Alpha Condé has put all the necessary means for his victory, which will not escape him"
, understands a diplomat.
The president, 82, elected for the first time in 2010, will therefore begin a third term, he who never seriously seemed to consider leaving power.
But before that, he will have to appease a country that this election has deeply divided.
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Guinea in the throes of renewed violence
In an equally announced manner, the main opponent, Cellou Dalein Diallo, is preparing to challenge the figures and is already denouncing a
"large-scale fraud"
.
In a predictable strategy, his party, the Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG), has also proclaimed its leader the winner of the poll on Monday.
According to the training, the
"indisputable"
figures
would have reached it via its own parallel counting system.
The initiative has earned him outraged denials from the Ceni and criticism from diplomats who fear the worst.
“The risk of post-election violence is high.
There is no dialogue between the two camps and no confidence, ”
notes one of them.
On the front, the two camps play appeasement, calling on their supporters to respect the process.
In fact, one like the other rather seeks the deterioration of the situation to put offside the adversary.
On the front, the two camps play appeasement, calling on their supporters to respect the process.
In fact, one like the other rather seeks the deterioration of the situation to put offside the adversary.
No sooner had Cellou Dalein Diallo announced his triumph than his supporters took to the streets.
In Hamdallaye, a peripheral commune of Conakry known as a stronghold of the opposition, young people on motorcycles or in small groups celebrated the advent of the new head of state.
Inevitably, the festivities turned to a violent clash with the police, the tear gas fire responding to the throwing of stones.
In the following days, the repression increased.
The police increased the number of arrests and then carried out a heavy search of the UFDG headquarters.
The party's premises have been placed under seal by the authorities, who accuse the opposition of stirring up riots.
The police were also deployed en masse around the home of Cellou Dalein Diallo.
The latter then published a video on social networks, where he claims to be
"sequestered"
at his home.
The tension is therefore still rising, the police orchestrating violent raids in the alleys of the protesting districts.
The outcome of these clashes was not known with precision.
The UFDG counts 19 dead, the government for its part recognizes ten victims.
The capital has gradually turned into a dead city.
The capital has gradually turned into a dead city.
Normally, perpetually congested arteries are fluid.
The police are present at almost all crossroads, filtering access to the city center.
“We don't really know what's going on, but we're scared.
We hear gunshots, especially at night, ”
says a resident of Hamdallaye.
This bloody scenario is well known.
It has already been played and replayed in 2010 and then in 2015, when the same two men faced each other.
In recent months, the change of Constitution imposed by Alpha Condé to bypass the constitutional limitation of two terms of office has rekindled this dynamic which wants political disagreements to end in the streets.
"We can still fear tensions because no one seems ready to lose ground to calm things down,"
notes Paul Amegakpo, of the National Democratic Institute (NDI), an American think-tank which is particularly worried about ethnocentric discourse.
Alpha Condé and Cellou Dalein Diallo, beyond their cleavage, are above all the leaders of their respective communities, the Malinkés and the Peuls.
Political violence has therefore spread to the whole country through this community bias.
The region of Labbé, a Fulani majority, is also the scene of clashes.
“The risk of seeing Fulani frustration lead to secessionist wishes cannot be ruled out,”
underlines an observer.
But the great danger is that it will be used by radical Muslim groups to seduce young people, then to establish themselves in Guinea. ”