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The morning after the honeymoon: What awaits us if Biden is elected president? | Israel today

2020-10-24T15:18:14.038Z


| Israel this week - a political supplementA scenario in which Biden is elected president will lead to a challenging and difficult reality in Israeli-US relations • Dr. Dori Gould, who warned Biden about loopholes in the nuclear deal with Iran as early as 2015, suggests taking an initiative that might save some of Trump's achievements • Dr. Michael Oren expects the settlements to return to focus He previously defined himself as a Zionist


A scenario in which Biden is elected president will lead to a challenging and difficult reality in Israeli-US relations • Dr. Dori Gould, who warned Biden about loopholes in the nuclear deal with Iran as early as 2015, suggests taking an initiative that might save some of Trump's achievements • Dr. Michael Oren expects the settlements to return to focus

  • He previously defined himself as a Zionist, and made it clear that a Zionist does not have to be Jewish.

    Both

    Photography: 

    AFP

The sky will not fall on Israel on November 3 if it turns out that Joe Biden is the president-elect of the United States. But this bottom line, signed by three veterans of the US-Israel relations experts we spoke to this week, has a lesser-than-nice sequel: It's going to be tough and difficult and most of all - very different from the honeymoon atmosphere that characterized Israeli-US relations during President Donald Trump's election. Biden's election means that Israel will have to get used to a new-old reality.

Dr. Dori Gould, former Director General of the Foreign Ministry and Israel's Ambassador to the United Nations and currently President of the Jerusalem Center for Public and State Affairs, believes that if Biden is elected, the Palestinian issue will be relegated to the top of US foreign policy priorities; Gould believes that "everything is still open in the race") will try to differentiate itself from its predecessor's policies. "It is unlikely that all understandings with the Trump administration will remain.

Maybe just a little, "he says. 

Will Biden adopt the 70 percent division for Palestinians and 30 percent for Israelis in Judea and Samaria?

Gould believes that "if they rely on the positions of Biden and his men in the past, it is more likely that the United States will return to a single-digit territory, with respect to parts of Judea and Samaria, where they believe Israel can continue to maintain a permanent settlement."

Michael Oren, the former Israeli ambassador to the United States, puts it bluntly. "On the Palestinian issue," Oren clarifies, "Biden will return to the 1967 border policy with minor amendments, based on two states, with Jerusalem being the capital of Palestine.

Construction in the settlements and in East Jerusalem will once again be a controversial issue, and a constant focus of tension and conflict;

The condemnations of UN settlements will also return, as they did in the late Obama era, and it is not inconceivable that the United States will redefine them as an "obstacle to peace."

Conflict over building permit.

Ramat Shlomo // Archive photo: Oren Nachshon

Prof. Eitan Gilboa, a US expert and senior researcher at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University, says that the settlement interest in democratic governments has become an obsession. "If Biden is elected," Gilboa explains, we will probably return to a policy of "not even one brick." "As Hillary Clinton, Obama's secretary of state, put it."

Gilboa fears that Baiden, even more than Obama, "will be under pressure from the radical wing of his party. The question of how independent he will be is a key question. The radicals are already pushing for key government positions, and on the issue of settlements they will exert heavy pressure. We will not be easy with them."

And yet, Gold, Oren and Gilboa do not offer to give up.

Gould suggests being practical.

"There are people in the future administration of Biden, if it is possible, that it would be right to reach out to and develop a dialogue with. They are fair and willing to listen," Gould says.

He clarifies that he is referring to Tony Blinkin, whose name was mentioned as a candidate for the post of National Security Adviser to Biden.

"I've met him before," Gould testifies, making it clear that Jake Sullivan is also a "sharp and smart man."

Gould suggests that Israel not keep quiet, and suggests "taking diplomatic initiatives that may provide protection for some of the achievements of the Trump era, such as the Jordan Valley issue. We need to re-strengthen ties with Jordan, which has decided to withdraw from political processes with Israel in response to the Trump initiative. "Some Arab countries, then come to the new American administration with the crystallized girls. That way there is a greater chance that he will adopt them."

Many are waiting for roles

The issue of the radical wings of the Democratic Party, if it wins, will continue to worry Israeli experts and politicians alike.

Prof. Eitan Gilboa notes that the progressives aspire for the United States to reduce its relations with the Gulf states, and for them to have to give them something.

After all - they stood behind him in the campaign.

If Biden is smart, he will give them less central things.

Sanders, who is very hostile to Israel, and Elizabeth Warren, who supported the cessation of American aid to Israel if construction in the settlements does not stop, want to be ministers.

Warren wants the treasure.

Journalist Thomas Friedman recommended that Baiden give a significant role to Congresswoman Alexandria Oxio-Cortez, who refused to attend a memorial service for Yitzhak Rabin on behalf of Peace Now.

Gold.

"Biden will let go of harsh sanctions against Iran" // Photo: Noam Rivkin Fenton

"Former Obama people," says Gilboa, "sit in all kinds of research institutes and wait for positions. Susan Rice, who was the US ambassador to the United Nations and a national security adviser to Obama, and whose name now stands as a candidate for secretary of state, showed a lukewarm attitude toward Israel and seemingly less Convenient for us Michelle Florenoy, who was acting Secretary of Defense, aspires to be Secretary of Defense now (Florenoy has previously said that the Israeli-US relationship is like that of a married couple - sometimes there are disagreements, but the US commitment to Israel is unquestionable ; N.S.).

On the other hand, Gilboa makes it clear that there is a tradition in the democratic administration that the position of Secretary of Defense appoints a Republican, and in this context the name of Mitt Romney, one of Trump's opponents, appears in the Biden area.

"The identity of the people who will sit around Biden will have a decisive impact on the policy he formulates in front of us," says Gilboa. "Right now, at least for us, the overall picture is not rosy."

Michael Oren, like Gould and Gilboa, estimates that the American embassy will not return to Tel Aviv if Biden serves as president.

"Maybe only the ambassador will not sit in Jerusalem," he says.

Biden, he says, will reopen the Palestinian embassy in Washington that Trump closed, and will renew aid to Palestinian institutions as well as UNRWA under U.S. law. Despite this, Oren believes that "relative to other Democratic presidential candidates, Biden and his deputy Harris are the most pro-Israel figures. That there is today in the Democratic Party.

"Both, unlike other candidates, made it clear that they do not intend to use aid to Israel as a means of pressuring it to change policy, compared to Warren and Sanders, who spoke in the opposite direction."

Gould points out: "Not everything is lost. We must not accept that the Democratic Party will be hostile to Israel. There is room to work and influence and change, and that is certainly possible. There is now room to invest in improving relations with personalities in the Democratic Party and exploring the possibility of new understandings."

Gilboa also believes that if Biden is elected, Netanyahu should immediately invite himself to him, along with Ganz and Ashkenazi, and try to open a new page.

He offers Netanyahu the services of Ted Kaufman, a supporter of Israel, a close friend of Biden, who was entrusted by Biden himself about four months ago as head of the "transfer of power team."

Coordinate expectations on agreement

In the eyes of many, the crucial issue facing the new president will be Iran, all the more so if Biden enters the Oval Office.

Gould says he spoke in person with Biden in 2015 on the issue of the nuclear deal.

"I asked him he believes in the effectiveness of overseeing the agreement with the Iranians," Gould says, "I pointed out to him that all of the Iranians' violations are in secret facilities, and not in those known and declared." 

Michael Oren.

"Biden and Harris have made it clear that they do not intend to use aid to Israel as a means of pressure on them to change policy" // Photo: Dudi Vaknin

Gould estimates that Baiden, if elected, will work to reach a renewed agreement with Iran, and even moderate the harsh sanctions against Iran that Trump has initiated, but that he will "strive for an improved agreement, which will include tighter and more effective oversight, and be defined as a longer term."

He himself is troubled by the fate of the moderate Sunni axis in the case of a democratic government, "because concessions to Iran and a renewed agreement with it are more implied that the US wants to see Iran and its allies part of a regional settlement."

"Michael Oren, the former US ambassador, also estimates that Biden will seek a renewed agreement with Iran, but an improved agreement, which will include further restrictions on the nuclear program, missile development, Iranian support for terrorism around the world; an agreement that will allow international oversight to visit sensitive sites." "I appreciate from my acquaintance with the people who work in Washington," he says. Oren, by the way, estimates that the moderate Sunni axis will continue to strengthen even during the Biden period, because the common sense of danger of the members of this axis will unite its ranks. 

However, Oren clarifies that "Saudi Arabia and Egypt will find that the United States under Biden will return to the issue of human rights in their area, and will pay more attention to them." Oren recommends that Israel "does not repeat the mistake of 2015 and this time - publicly disclose its expectations of the incumbent." The Iranians.

Even if Trump wins, he should do so, because he too is on the road to an improved agreement with the Iranians.

He talks about it openly. "

Gilboa also clarifies: "If the Iranians think they are returning to the Obama era - a mistake on their part. If elected, Biden will seek to extend the term of the agreement, and will also demand to address issues of terrorism and missiles. Maybe some sanctions will be softened, but not completely abolished. Accessibility to the US in this matter.

We had a direct line to Trump, we worked closely together.

Biden will restore the dimensions of coordination to what it was in the Obama era.

He will consider the Israeli position on Iran much less. " 

Gilboa clarifies that in the past he implored Netanyahu to take with him to the then opposition chairman Yitzhak Herzog for his appearance at the congress on the Iranian issue. "Unfortunately, he did not accede to my advice.

If Biden does enter the White House, forces must be united in front of him.

Netanyahu, Ganz and Ashkenazi must be coordinated on the matter.

There is no room here for games and political competition.

When it comes to Biden, the joint action of all the key factors in Israel will be much more effective. "

Gould and Oren talk quite a bit about the hive that Biden will surround himself with, if he becomes president.

Gilboa adds the composition of the Congress and the Senate in the future: "If the Democrats take over the Congress, they have a good chance of taking the Senate as well, then there is no real control over the conduct of the White House. However, if the Republicans remain a center of power - we also have a chance to fight Some braking. " 



Gilboa mentions that in 2016 Obama signed a ten-year aid agreement with Israel;

$ 3.8 billion a year, "but every year Congress needs to re-ratify it. The radicals in the Democratic Party demand to take advantage of this vis-à-vis Israel to change its positions, so the composition of Congress will also have an impact on American conduct vis-à-vis us."

When Begin shouted at Biden

Biden's worst conflict with Israel was in 2010, when he served as Obama's deputy, and visited the country.

At that time, the Jerusalem District Planning Committee approved the promotion of construction of 1,600 new housing units in the Ramat Shlomo neighborhood, across the Green Line.

Biden, while in Israel, was furious.

Netanyahu apologized to him. 

Gilboa.

"Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren want to be singers at Biden" // Photo: Coco

Following the incident, the "Biden Procedure" was established, which requires the prior approval of the Prime Minister's Office for any construction beyond the Green Line in Jerusalem. These days, by the way, Netanyahu is debating whether to promote the construction of 10,000 housing units in Atarot in North Jerusalem. On his decision - whether he will hurry to approve them before a president can be replaced, or he will delay their approval further, in order to open on the right foot in front of a new president, who may be elected.

Biden himself has previously defined himself as a Zionist, and made it clear that a Zionist does not have to be Jewish.

He emphasized that his son was married to a observant Jew.

In his meetings with Israelis, he always returns to a story from the period before the Yom Kippur War.

Biden was then a young senator about 30 years old and traveled from Cairo to the Suez Canal, then the border between Israel and Egypt.

Along the way, Biden envisioned large-scale Egyptian maneuvers and military training.

"I was so worried about your fate at the time," Biden said when he met then-Prime Minister Golda Meir.

The concern for Israel's security burned into me even then.

That has not changed.

I am committed to this to this day. " 

On the other hand, Biden's resume also includes a less pleasant meeting with another prime minister, Menachem Begin.

According to the Republican version, when Begin met with Biden and a group of senators in the early 1980s, the issue of settlements heated up, and Begin shouted at Biden that Israel would not submit to American demands on the issue, "even if it had to give up American aid altogether."

Biden, as Obama's deputy, also boycotted Netanyahu's speech to Congress on the Iranian issue.

Michael Oren wrote in his book "Ben Brit, my life as a bridge between Israel and the United States", that even in 2010 there was a difficult exchange with Biden regarding the settlements, but then Biden clarified to him that "Israel can open fights against us, but we will still defend it This is in line with the Obama-era patronage agenda, which held that the US administration would "save Israel from itself." 

Additional restrictions?

Iranian nuclear project // Archive photo: AFP

In line with this perception, Biden conveyed a message to Netanyahu a few months ago, when he was discussing the annexation of parts of Judea and Samaria.

The Democratic presidential candidate then made it clear to the Prime Minister that annexation would be construed as a real provocation in a future democratic administration, and that if he served as president he would reverse such an annexation decision.

In general, experts estimate that Biden, as president, will pay less attention to foreign affairs, including the Middle East, as the appeal addresses an unprecedented social, health and economic crisis. "The last thing on the administration's agenda after the election is the Palestinian and Iranian issue." "I do not see Biden as president running to present a new peace plan, or rushing to Cairo like Obama at the time."

What Oren refrained from saying, and other experts point out in an enclave of position papers, is that the United States has lost relative strength and global influence, and therefore its comparative positions vis-à-vis Israel, and even a threat to cut US aid - on which Israel now depends less than in the past. However, it is clear that the identity of the person sitting in the White House, be it Biden or Trump, has a decisive influence on the State of Israel and its conduct in the future, on core issues such as Iran, the settlements and the Palestinians.

Source: israelhayom

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