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Against ruler Lukashenko: More than 100,000 people are protesting in Minsk, some media report up to 200,000 participants
Photo: STR / EPA-EFE / Shutterstock
When the protest march broke up on Sunday evening, detonations suddenly shook Minsk.
In the north of the Belarusian capital, security forces threw stun grenades at the demonstrators on Orlovskaya Street and in the adjacent backyards, sometimes also at the crowd.
Videos from various media showed explosions, smoke and people trying to run away.
They were followed by officers with rifles who, according to reports from local reporters, also fired.
Several people were injured by rubber bullets and 280 people were arrested, according to human rights activists.
The images are in stark contrast to what happened before: Around 150,000 people - according to some media reports even up to 200,000 people - marched peacefully through Minsk.
They clapped, drummed, shouted: "Long live Belarus", "Lukashenko, go away" and "Strike".
It was the largest protests the country had seen in four weeks.
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Flowers for the opposition politician Swetlana Tichanwoskaja in Denmark: Lukashenko set ultimatum
Photo: Emil Helms / dpa
In advance, the presidential candidate and opposition activist Svetlana Tichanowskaja from exile had given ruler Alexander Lukashenko an ultimatum: he should resign by midnight, schedule new elections, and release all political prisoners.
Otherwise, a general strike would begin and paralyze the country.
In view of the violence in Minsk, Tichanovskaya did not even let the deadline pass, and in the evening he announced the strike for Monday.
Tichanovskaya is going on the offensive, but this is not without risk, also because Lukashenko could react with further violence.
So far, the protests in Belarus have been characterized by the fact that the people mostly organize it locally themselves, thereby supporting the political opposition and giving it strength.
It can hardly be said that Tichanwoskaya and the so-called Coordination Council, which organizes the political work of the opposition, would lead the protest movement.
Most of the opposition representatives are now also in exile outside the country or in prison.
The fact that Tichanovskaya certainly has an influence on the resistance against Lukashenko was shown on Sunday with the strengthened protests in Minsk.
The Minsk political analyst Artyom Schraibman wrote on Telegram that she succeeded in the first act of the ultimatum.
Recently, fewer people took to the streets on the traditional Sunday of protest.
Belarus is experiencing a new phase in the struggle for the country's political course. According to Schraibman, an important week is ahead.
"Awkward maneuvers"
Belarus has been in a stalemate for eleven weeks.
After the obviously falsified elections, neither Lukashenko's opponents on the street nor the ruler with his security apparatus could decide the situation for themselves.
Lukashenko therefore played for time:
He appeared at the side of Russian President Vladimir Putin, on whose support the largely politically isolated Belarusian ruler is also economically dependent.
After meeting with prisoners of the opposition in the KGB prison, he released some of the prisoners or placed them under house arrest - probably in the hope of dividing the opposition.
He recently even phoned US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
"Of awkward maneuvers," Minsk political scientist Valery Karbalevich spoke on TV Rain, which is critical of the Kremlin.
In addition, there was the cancellation of the mass rally, at which, according to Lukashenko, 300,000 of his supporters were supposed to gather over the weekend.
"The leadership has admitted that it cannot mobilize enough supporters," believes Karbalevich.
According to a recent survey by the British think tank Chatham House, one in five Belarusians interviewed said they support the ruler.
43 percent are in favor of protests, 34 percent sympathize with them, but are afraid of changes in the country.
It will now be important for Tichanovskaya and the Coordination Council to convince this group of the general strike.
It is seen as the means to decisively increase the pressure on Lukashenko, to create new stress for the leadership, as analyst Schraibman puts it, thereby encouraging further mistakes.
Around three quarters of Belarusian companies are majority-controlled by the state or are wholly state-owned.
They are therefore of great importance to Lukashenko.
"The way will not be easy"
But many observers are skeptical that a general strike will be a success.
The opposition had already called for work stoppages in August.
In some plants there was no work either, but only for a few days and sometimes only in areas of the factories.
Then the pressure became too great and dependencies were too strong.
In companies such as the potash salt manufacturer Belaruskali, which pays good salaries by Belarusian standards, several family members often work at the same time.
In addition, the combines give the workers loans, for example for the purchase of real estate or the education of the children - so employees run a high risk if they strike.
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Security forces in Minsk: tens of thousands of demonstrators
Photo: - / dpa
What has changed since August
However, the strikes took place spontaneously in August and were also a reaction to the brutal arrests and violence by the security forces against the protesters shortly after the election.
The question now is whether the renewed use of stun grenades and rubber bullets against demonstrators on Sunday will mobilize people to show solidarity and take part in the strike.
The opposition is better prepared and has used the past few weeks to organize: strike committees have been set up, networks have been set up, an aid fund has been set up with donations for striking workers so that they can support themselves and their families.
How long the funds will last is unclear.
Tichanovskaya believes that one way of doing this is for the workers to stay at home this time, i.e. not to strike in the local factories.
But she warned in advance: "The way will not be easy."
The fight against Lukashenko needs strength and perseverance.
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