The economy in Germany is again suffering more from the corona pandemic.
Economists' assessments suggest a longer downward trend.
Economists from KfW, Deutsche Bank and Allianz see the
German economy
at risk from a second corona wave.
Not all industries are under the same pressure.
An easing of the situation in the coming year is anything but certain.
Nuremberg - Only recently were the economic forecasts for the current year and also for 2021 revised downwards.
Economists at
the major banks and insurance companies are
now
urgently
warning of
the further consequences of the corona pandemic for the economy.
A
second wave
threatens a stronger slump than originally expected.
Economic upturn canceled?
Coronavirus makes for gloomy forecasts
"The economic
upswing
should largely come to a standstill by spring," predicts
Fritzi-Köhler Geib,
chief economist of the state-owned banking group
KfW
.
She told the German Press Agency that "
unemployment
will also stagnate in the coming months or - if things go badly - will increase significantly".
The problems do not hit all industries equally hard.
Individual economic sectors are particularly suffering from the prospect of a second corona wave.
This also includes the hotel and catering industries.
The signs are also bad for the cultural industry, if the
corona measures
are
not eased into winter
.
The risks from the
coronavirus
are particularly high in all industries that are close to customers in the truest sense of the word.
Corona burdens the economy in Germany: the service sector is among the losers
“The situation is stressful, especially for the
service sector,
” says Marc Schattenberg, an economist at Deutsche Bank.
The
German bank
maintains its forecast of an economic slump by 5.5 percent this year and
growth
of 4.5 percent next year, initially upright.
"The third quarter should even surprise positively in terms of economic output," said Schattenberg.
However, downside risks can be seen for the fourth quarter, which could then drag on into the new year.
According to Schattenberg, seasonal jobs, for example at Christmas markets, are among the jobs at risk on the labor market.
Enzo Weber from the
Institute for Employment Research
in Nuremberg sees it similarly.
"The
labor market
had caught up in the summer, but the recovery is far more sluggish here, and some areas such as
industry
are continuing to cut jobs."
Corona effects: German economy in difficult situation from autumn
The
Allianz
Group is even anticipating a decline of 6 percent in economic output this year and an increase of 3.5 percent in the coming year.
"The downside risks predominate," said Katharina Utermöhl from Allianz.
She expects that it can "be more uncomfortable for the German economy again from autumn".
Utermöhl
describes the state of the economy in the Corona crisis as a "stop-and-go mode"
.
In her opinion, the state aid that expires at the end of the year will certainly be extended.
(rm / dpa)