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Economists warn of the next corona effects: "May come to a standstill by spring"

2020-10-25T08:53:45.909Z


The economy in Germany is again suffering more from the corona pandemic. Economists' assessments suggest a longer downward trend.


The economy in Germany is again suffering more from the corona pandemic.

Economists' assessments suggest a longer downward trend.

  • Economists from KfW, Deutsche Bank and Allianz see the

    German economy

    at risk from a second corona wave.

  • Not all industries are under the same pressure.

  • An easing of the situation in the coming year is anything but certain.

Nuremberg - Only recently were the economic forecasts for the current year and also for 2021 revised downwards.

Economists at

the major banks and insurance companies are

now

urgently

warning of

the further consequences of the corona pandemic for the economy.

A

second wave

threatens a stronger slump than originally expected.

Economic upturn canceled?

Coronavirus makes for gloomy forecasts

"The economic

upswing

should largely come to a standstill by spring," predicts

Fritzi-Köhler Geib,

chief economist of the state-owned banking group

KfW

.

She told the German Press Agency that "

unemployment

will also stagnate in the coming months or - if things go badly - will increase significantly".

The problems do not hit all industries equally hard.

Individual economic sectors are particularly suffering from the prospect of a second corona wave.

This also includes the hotel and catering industries.

The signs are also bad for the cultural industry, if the

corona measures

are

not eased into winter

.

The risks from the

coronavirus

are particularly high in all industries that are close to customers in the truest sense of the word.

Corona burdens the economy in Germany: the service sector is among the losers

“The situation is stressful, especially for the

service sector,

” says Marc Schattenberg, an economist at Deutsche Bank.

The

German bank

maintains its forecast of an economic slump by 5.5 percent this year and

growth

of 4.5 percent next year, initially upright.

"The third quarter should even surprise positively in terms of economic output," said Schattenberg.

However, downside risks can be seen for the fourth quarter, which could then drag on into the new year.

According to Schattenberg, seasonal jobs, for example at Christmas markets, are among the jobs at risk on the labor market.

Enzo Weber from the

Institute for Employment Research

in Nuremberg sees it similarly.

"The

labor market

had caught up in the summer, but the recovery is far more sluggish here, and some areas such as

industry

are continuing to cut jobs."

Corona effects: German economy in difficult situation from autumn

The

Allianz

Group is even anticipating a decline of 6 percent in economic output this year and an increase of 3.5 percent in the coming year.

"The downside risks predominate," said Katharina Utermöhl from Allianz.

She expects that it can "be more uncomfortable for the German economy again from autumn".

Utermöhl

describes the state of the economy in the Corona crisis as a "stop-and-go mode"

.

In her opinion, the state aid that expires at the end of the year will certainly be extended.

(rm / dpa)

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2020-10-25

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