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Not just the White House: Congressional elections are also critical to Israel

Netanyahu gambled on Republicans for more than a decade, neglecting Democrats.

It undermined the inter-party support that Israel enjoyed in Congress.

If Biden wins and the Democrats take the Senate as well, Netanyahu will be forced to rebuild his credibility and change his policy.

This will be a very difficult task even for him

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• United States

• US Congress

• Joe Biden

• Donald Trump

Prof. Eitan Gilboa

Sunday, October 25, 2020, 5:41 p.m.

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In the video: The last confrontation before the election between Trump and Baiden (Photo: Reuters, Editing: Shaul Adam)

In parallel with the presidential election on November 3, elections to both houses of Congress will also be held in the United States.

They are critical because they will determine the degree of cooperation between the two governing bodies, the legislature and the executive, and the freedom of action of the president-elect.

Elections to Congress are held every two years, and there are 435 deputies to the House of Representatives, 33 senators - every two years a third of the Senate is elected, one hundred members based on two senators per state regardless of size - and two more senators in special elections in the state of Arizona. Van McCain, and in the state of Georgia, due to the resignation of the incumbent senator.

The Senate, whose members are elected for terms of six years, is more important than the House of Representatives whose members are elected for a term of only two years.

The Senate also has more powers than the House of Representatives.

The US Congress is a full partner in determining government policy.

Without the approval of Congress, a president cannot spend a single dollar, appoint ministers, judges and ambassadors and of course pass laws.

Congress has significant powers in many areas stemming from the federal regime structure based on restraints and balances between authorities.

Due to the ongoing distrust of the public in the administration, voters tend to split forces even between the two houses of Congress.

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Will determine the freedom of action of the President.

US Congress (Photo: Reuters)

During all eight years of former President Barack Obama's tenure, he has enjoyed a majority of his party in both houses of Congress for only the first two years.

President Donald Trump also enjoys a majority of his party in both houses of Congress in just his first two years.

A situation in which one party controls both houses of Congress and the other in the White House or one party controls one of the houses of Congress and the other the other, creates a congress that is saturated with intense disagreements between the parties.

This sometimes causes paralysis of the administration, or at least a heavy burden on the White House.

In recent years, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and Senate have failed to reach a budget compromise, and the president has been forced to shut down divisions and departments of the government and expel tens of thousands of workers to the military. These have hurt services and actions for citizens. , Which made it even more difficult for them to cooperate in Congress and between the Congress and the White House.

To gain a majority in the House of Representatives one has to win 218 seats and in the Senate one needs a 51-seat majority. The vice president serving as chairman of the Senate can vote and decide in favor of his party and the president.

The current division of power in Congress is that Democrats control the House by a majority of 232 to 198. In the Senate, Republicans control a small majority of 53 to 47. Hence, to maintain their rule in the House of Representatives Democrats can lose up to 14 seats.

All predictions give them at least 227 seats.

Thus, they will continue to dominate the House of Representatives and may even increase their majority.

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To the full article

The situation in the Senate is more complex and close, but here too political mathematics works in favor of the Democrats.

In order for Republicans to retain control of the Senate, they can only lose two seats.

To take over the Senate, Democrats need to retain all of their seats and take four more seats from the Republicans, and if Biden wins the presidential election they will only need 50 seats, so three more seats will suffice.

Today, out of the 35 Senate seats up for election, Republicans hold 23 and Democrats only 12.

Therefore, Republicans need to defend two seats from the Democrats.

In most close races, the polls indicate a preference for Democratic candidates.

If a presidential candidate wins by a large majority, he is also swept away by election victories for both houses of Congress.

Only Biden can achieve such a victory, and if it does, the Democrats' chances of controlling both houses of Congress will be higher.

Democrats' control of both houses of Congress will have critical political significance.

In such a situation, if Biden also wins he will be able to pass almost any decision he wants.

If the Republicans maintain their current control of the Senate, they will make it difficult for him and he will be forced to compromise with them.

All this data should be treated with limited guarantee, because when it comes to Trump no result can be ruled out.

On the other hand, he himself and his election executives convey pressure and distress.

Severe rupture in front of the Democrats.

Netanyahu's speech to Congress in 2015 (Photo: Reuters)

For more than a decade, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has gambled on Republican candidates and formed particularly close ties with them, and with Trump. He neglected the Democrats, thereby undermining the inter-party support that Israel enjoyed in Congress for decades. The result was a severe rift with the Democrats. Netanyahu wants Trump to win and at least the Republicans to retain the majority they have in the Senate. Total control of the Democrats in the White House and in Congress would deprive him of a real ability to influence US-Israel relations.

If Biden wins, in order for Netanyahu to work with him, he will have to change his attitude toward Democrats, restore his credibility and change his policy. This will be a very difficult task even for someone who is considered a political wizard in the country.

Prof. Gilboa is an expert and lecturer in the United States and a senior researcher at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar Ilan University.

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