Ignacio Zuleta
10/25/2020 7:22 PM
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 10/25/2020 7:22 PM
The end of virtual sessions: face-to-face debut in Deputies
The pandemic is over for Congress.
On Wednesday a
special session
is scheduled
to deal with the Budget
and the new protocol of mixed sessions with free attendance of deputies to the campus governs.
As of Sunday night there
were
already
more than 90 opposition legislators signed up
to be in their seats that day.
It is the first there will be live debates since the plague began last March.
Opposition pressure on the Deputies made Sergio Massa give up what Cristina de Kirchner is giving in installments.
There, the majority of Peronism is overwhelming and the Senate, a chamber of veterans - in a much greater number than that of Deputies - only admits two senators per block, in addition to the chamber authorities.
They can be rotated according to the themes, but there the
last remnant of virtuality
.
The opposition will confirm at the meeting of the Together for Change table on Monday, that it will refrain from accompanying the ruling of the ruling party, which on Friday approved a
second version of the calculation of expenses and income
.
The massive disembarkation of the deputies in the precinct will not be to seek a consensus, like the one that the previous "Guzmán laws" had that he requested to negotiate with private creditors.
It will be a festival of presence and a new denunciation of the Government's dark fondness for virtuality.
Ailments and consolations
Massa's effort this weekend was to summon Peronists to attend the session en masse.
It is not the same to respond to more than 90 opponents from a screen than to do it in person.
Massa will make an effort himself to be present
, after recovering from a pupa that has him badly brought and with destiny, as he confessed in his talks to friends this weekend, with a scalpel.
It can be an effect of walking the ledge so much.
That ailment, he jokes, usually attacks him when they are ringing him for a new position.
He also knows how to make fruitful use of his sufferings - in that is also political cunning.
On Wednesday he had to fulfill the promise to receive the celestial and green tribes that are discussing the project to decriminalize abortion.
He called off the appointment.
To which Cristina de Kirchner never confirmed if she would go
.
But he will not be able to avoid presiding over the session of Deputies, even if standing.
If he does not go, it must be presided over by the Larretista
Álvaro González
.
Can anyone imagine a budget session chaired by an opponent, who will represent abstentionism?
Impossible.
Massa never lets him preside over Álvaro when there are votes.
It is the hour of the great mischief, and that rod never gives way.
In the line of command of the Chamber, if Álvaro were separated,
José Luis Gioja
and
Alfredo Cornejo would
follow
.
With that bench, Massa prefers to postpone the operating room.
If you are a psycho-somatic, you can be consoled by
Facundo Manes
, a noted neurologist, who advises Juan Grabois on the creation of the Latin American University of the Peripheries, presented by the CTEP at the Vatican in the Saturday zoom of priests and social organizations.
But he will have to share it with Mario Negri, who that same Saturday swept the audience along with Manes - who has radical roots - in a more partisan zoom.
Shooting typical of electoral time.
A budget driven by superpowers
The ruling party put aside talks with the opposition, which had asked for clauses that were rejected, such as the power for the provinces to issue bonds in pesos, or the renegotiation of debts with the Anses.
Carlos Heller's
argument
was that they tried to satisfy demands from governors and deputies.
but they have acceded more to requests from the Executive: they double the tax on the National Transportation Fund, they give the governors the pleasure of automating the shipment of the Tobacco fund, they increase the tax on gambling.
They ignored the opposition
: in universities they made a "happiness sheet" clientelists, they decide who they give money to according to the party affiliation of each house of studies, they deny the provinces the co-participation of the distribution of the PAIS tax - the one paid by the spending on the dollar card– which will, they promise, lead to an eventual tax reform.
Heller enshrined himself in those club talks as
the king of VAR
.
To each query he answered: I am going to consult, he drew the screen in the air, and he wrote down.
"It looks like he's a soccer man," was the joke.
When he appeared with the 40 articles of a virtual new budget, he was more blunt: "We have the votes. If you like it, support it, and if not, you already know."
That budget, which is made by the Executive, should be satisfied with abstentions, to provide the IMF with the form it requests from the "broad consensus."
In short, it is a project that gives a lot to everyone, and that means that
the expenditure will be decided by the Government
in use of its superpowers.
The IMF, which understands Argentina, will have to admit that a budget that the Executive manages by hand is better, albeit with drawn numbers, than another agreed and shielded by commitments with governors that are difficult to fulfill.
The arbitrariness provides the elasticity that the norms do not give, in a country punished by crises and with weak governments.
Abortion: Greens despair
These movements, between accordism and rupture, add
more instability to the panorama
.
Governments, this one and others before now, boast of managing a hidden reality that nobody sees and of designing, on that basis, unbeatable strategies.
They ask to be allowed to move pieces with which - billiard or chess maneuvers - will produce great results.
Experience says otherwise: they are
trial and error trials
that most of the time go wrong.
There was no secret information, no strategy, just anxiety to escape forward.
On this issue of abortion, they wait green and blue for the Government to decide when it will present, or not, the decriminalization project.
The greens begin to suspect the government's security in opening this battle before the end of the year.
That is why they have turned their campaign towards a project that was presented last year with signatures from all blocks, headed by former deputy
Victoria Donda
, and that bears the signatures, among others, of Martin Lousteau,
Brenda Austin
,
Silvia Lospennato
–Cambiemos - and Máximo Kirchner (he has the number 2810-D-2019).
They no longer wait for Vilma Ibarra, who is so magical that he does not show it to anyone.
They are not going to delay it any longer and that is why Donda's is enough for them.
The return of Dr. Vaporeso
This change of course is a way of rushing Alberto Fernández to fulfill his promise.
It is also a new application of the method of using opposition projects to benefit the ruling party.
The Peronism of the Kirchner cycle did so
when it took original initiatives of radicalism to advance its own projects.
It happened with the nationalizations of YPF, Aerolineas, retirements and the media law.
They were all claims of radicalism from the 90s onwards, to the privatizations of Peronism.
He relaunched them to achieve his own merit and corner an opposition, which was unarmed to reject those ideas that they had launched.
It is
the "great Vaporeso"
, a motto that evokes verses of the march sung by the followers of the courageous character of Alfredo Casero: "Once they threw us with a motorcycle, / We made it cheaper and put it to ride" ("March of Dr. Vaporeso ", nineteen ninety six).
In the treatment of the decriminalization of abortion in 2018, the Macri government sent the project to solve circumstantial emergencies, but the president was against it, and his man in the Senate,
Federico Pinedo
, sank the project.
As much as the ruling party was as divided as the opposition, in the political fight it ended up getting what it wanted.
This is what counts in politics
.
The bill chosen now to run the green campaign is less rigid than the one rejected by the Senate a year earlier.
The undecided are approached by another complementary project, on a care program for children during baby age.
It is inspired by the "1,000 days" plan that Daniel Scioli or Juan Manuel Urtubey proposed at some point, and that already exist in some cities such as Tucumán and San Juan.
The spirit of the law, rugby and football
The same method Vaporeso is the one that the Senate tries to approve the project to
remove the life character from the mandate of the Attorney General
.
Peronism unearthed two opposition projects, by Lousteau and
Lucila Crexell
, and wants to approve them in committee.
These two opponents want to withdraw them, but that is going to be rejected by the Senate, because they are already in formal debate.
In the Justice commission, which Oscar Parrilli called in a rogue haste, the two authors warned that they could not discuss a project presented in another context.
Parrilli laughed at their intentions, applying the literalness of the regulations to them.
Esteban Bullrich supported his colleagues on the bench, appealing to the concept of
"the spirit of the laws
.
"
Montesquieu consecrated that motto to explain how each government and each system explains a culture that gives rise to it.
Here, Bullrich hinted, there is talk of giving the new Attorney General's term of office, but he fears that they might impose a lowering of the requirement of 2/3 of the votes to a simple majority to elect him.
It was a project for a political system that had other objectives.
Cristina, with penguin simplicity, said more or less the same thing to Luis Naidenoff in their last meeting, when he complained that some play the game with the rules of rugby, and others with those of soccer.
Difficult to apply so much plot density in 5 minutes, by zoom and on a Friday in autumn spring, as this rare porteño spring has been.
He who does not want elections believes that he is going to lose
This columnist warned in January of this year that the Government was studying the suspension of the PASO to choose candidates for next year's elections.
Over the
weekend this newspaper confirmed the news with the same arguments: that they are
very expensive and useless
, as the last two presidents,
Macri and Cristina
, have thought
.
The plague did not exist then, but the Government already had at that time the arguments of the PJ experts to suspend them.
After March, the news was complemented by the Covid emergencies.
Now it is added that it is impossible to do here what happened this Sunday in Chile - home of the most important election on the continent in half a century, after Argentina in 1983 - before in Bolivia or Uruguay, and in a few days in the States. United.
They are
insufficient explanations
, and that asserts a great truth about politics: whoever denounces fraud or does not want elections is because they fear losing.
This is written in stone and generates dreams of reason, that is, monsters (Goya).
In 2009, Cristina's government advanced the elections on the grounds of the international financial crisis, and because the world was upon us.
It was
the prelude to the defeat
of a list of deputies headed by Néstor Kirchner, Daniel Scioli and Sergio Massa.
Alica, pliers, dad.
Francisco de Narváez
, a shooting star who does not know where he is today, made them hair and beards.
Speculations and conveniences
The lesson is that
law does not fix what politics does not
.
On the side of the ruling party, there are as many speculations about convenience as there are competing tribes.
Cristina has territorial force in part of Buenos Aires and controls the party's superstructure.
Massa has his portion of territory with his own party.
They can benefit from a suspension of the PASO and agree among themselves lists of candidates in one of the few districts where significant numbers of legislators are elected.
Alberto Fernández has no territory, no party.
In a compromise he has neither the strength nor the ammunition to impose anything.
He watches it on TV or by zoom,
which is less than TV.
In any case, you can place a former minister, if you change the cast.
In the opposition there are differences.
In Buenos Aires, there is an open internal between the radicalism sector of Cambiemos -
Daniel Salvador
,
Maxi Abad
- and that of
Gustavo Posse
, which has national allies such as Lousteau or
Fredi Storani
.
They take the partisan fight to March and from there they will draw candidates, with a STEP or without a STEP.
They are organic.
Something similar happens in Córdoba, where there is no STEP for local positions.
Party preeminences dominate.
Mario Negri would benefit from a STEP to compete with
Ramón Mestre
, but he is not convinced to be a candidate for national senator either.
Would you leave the presidency of the interblock that shares power with the ruling party in Deputies for a senatorial position in a minority block?
It is not business.
In CABA
Larreta you do not need a STEP
.
He is a generous aliancista, he distributes more than he has and arms a solid internal front that goes from pure macrismo to Carrió, passing through nosiglism.
Trust that the future depends on the pay-as-you-go system, not the present funded system.
Inside the vaccine everything, outside the vaccine nothing
As long as the contrary is not proven, it is a sign of the weakness of this government in the face of cool elections: it
has to go from counting misfortunes to counting votes
.
Tell me where the conversion table is.
In this climate, anyone can win, unless the
Cavallo of 1991 appeared
, who turned expectations in the framework of convertibility and crushed Peronism in the elections of that year.
Massa sent emissaries to consult with the opposition for a suspension of the PASO in the province of Buenos Aires.
Santiago Cafiero,
whose office confirmed the details
of Pablo de León's note, asked Horacio Rodríguez Larreta a few months ago to probe the opposition.
The argument is, according to the Government, if in the first quarter we have all the vaccines and
everyone is vaccinated in the first half, they will be done
.
It is difficult for the pig to whistle, because Dr. Anthony Fauci himself, who comes to be like Pedro Cahn of the United States, has just told the BBC that "we will know if a vaccine is safe by the end of November, beginning of December."
After that date it will have to be manufactured and the first to receive it will be health personnel, those of age or risky condition, but not for the general public.
In Together for Change they believe that,
if it suits the Government, they should oppose it
.
The government knows that the system was made to tease the opposition.
In a legislative election like next year, it doesn't matter much, because you don't have to organize leaderships and there
are actually 24 elections
.
To approve it, 129 votes are needed, which the ruling party has in Deputies, with the help of the massist bloc of
José Luis Ramón
, awarded in these hours with an enviable dignity: the presidency of a bicameral to apply the consumer defense law.
Will there ever be someone to defend us from the defenders - be they the people, the media or the consumer?
The electoral Justice has always been in favor of the PASO, but if there is a law, it will not be able to do anything.
It will require, in any case, through the National Electoral Chamber, some system to choose candidates.
An illusion, with
parties that resolve more by fingers
than by elections.
He has summoned a commission to organize electoral emergencies, something that Graciela Camano demanded in Congress a few months ago, to give pre-eminence to the Legislative Power in setting up elections under plague conditions.
For the votes made by the citizens of Bolivia and Chile residing in Argentina, the Ministry of Health demanded that there be a single person in the radius of 4 square meters.
With a roll of 35 million voters, we are going to have, in any case, healthy elections that will occupy the entire homeland, including that of the Mapuches.
