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Will the economy weigh heavily in the US election?

2020-10-25T16:35:51.613Z


ANALYSIS - In the special ballot on November 3, what will be the influence of the economy on the choice of voters? The response of forecasting models from political scientists and economists.


The Covid-19 epidemic, which threw the United States into recession, offers an unprecedented politico-economic context on the eve of the presidential election on November 3.

The economy, historically, weighs heavily in the choice of voters.

What will happen in 2020?

Besides the traditional polls of voting intentions, academics (North America, France and Germany), political scientists and economists affiliated with the Political Forecasting Group (@ pol4casting) offer many forecasting models based on different political factors (such as the popularity of the leaver) or economic (growth, income, etc.).

After focusing on the Midterms elections, these researchers are trying to decipher the springs of the presidential election.

Pandemic weighs on Trump's popularity

The outgoing president's handling of the pandemic - more than 215,000 dead in the United States - has not lived up to the expectations of American voters.

This is the conclusion of the panel of forecasters

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Source: lefigaro

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