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Corona in Germany: Merkel's Christmas forecast much too low? Statistician warns against misjudgment


The corona numbers in Germany are increasing dramatically. The number of new infections has doubled again in one week. When evaluating the numbers, however, there are several aspects to consider.

The corona numbers in Germany are increasing dramatically.

The number of new infections has doubled again in one week.

When evaluating the numbers, however, there are several aspects to consider.

  • The number of corona cases in Germany is increasing rapidly.

    The R-value * was 1.39 on Sunday evening (October 25).

    The second


    * seems unstoppable.

  • The new infections reported on Monday also confirm the rapidly increasing trend.

  • There are several aspects to consider when evaluating the numbers.

  • This ticker is updated continuously.

Update from October 26, 2020, 2:23 p.m.:

Chancellor Angela Merkel will again discuss the worsening development of the

corona pandemic

with the Prime Minister in a video conference next Wednesday


Government spokesman Steffen Seibert announced this on Monday in Berlin.

Seibert emphasized that there was a serious development going on.

Bavaria's Prime Minister

Markus Söder

again emphasized the seriousness of the situation.

The CSU politician sees the fight against Corona in a crucial week.

"I do believe that it is pretty serious now, and that everyone has to make it clear again what it is about," said Söder on Monday at the Munich Media Days with a view to the next Prime Minister's Conference in a few days.

"This is the decision week."

Update from October 26th, 1:22 p.m.:

The coronavirus numbers are still rising particularly rapidly in North Rhine-Westphalia.

Only three regions have not yet been declared a risk area there.

In Bavaria, too, there are no signs of a positive development in the infection rate despite tightened measures.

Corona in Germany: clinics are again announcing postponement of non-urgent operations

Update from October 26, 11:54 a.m.:

Once again, the corona pandemic seems to have serious effects on ongoing hospital operations: In view of the increasing number of infections, the clinics in Germany are preparing

to postpone operations that can be

planned in many places


It is to be expected that "non-emergency interventions in particularly polluted regions and hospitals will have to be postponed again," said the managing director of the German Hospital Society, Georg Baum, of the "Augsburger Allgemeine" on Monday.

Baum called the rapidly increasing number of new infections "worrying".

"We know from spring that these new infections inevitably result in inpatient treatment cases."

At that time, every seventh corona infected person had to be treated as an inpatient in the hospital with a delayed interval in the course of the illness.

Corona in Germany: Beds in hospitals should be kept free again

In addition, it must be expected that a certain number of


will have to be

kept free


"Unlike in spring, however, there will be no widespread and uncoordinated lockdown," added Baum.

In particular, the supra-regional supply of large clinics for important interventions should be guaranteed.

How much the situation has worsened again is shown, for example, by a corona outbreak in a hospital in the Bavarian district of Schongau *.

Coronavirus: Number of patients in German intensive care units tripled since the beginning of October

According to Baum, the number of 

corona patients in intensive care units


more than


from 373 to 1296

since the

beginning of October


578 of these patients required ventilation at the weekend.

Accordingly, 8400 of the more than 30,000 intensive care beds are currently free.

The hospital


sees the

shortage of nursing staff

as a central problem


The clinics therefore need "maximum flexibility" in staffing.

Baum demanded that the new care lower limits planned by the federal government should not be started from January.

Corona in Germany: Merkel's Christmas forecast much too low?

Statistician warns against misjudgment

Update from October 26th, 8.55 a.m.:


Angela Merkel

warned at the end of September that


could have


new infections

per day

at Christmas

, her statement was dismissed by some critics as scare tactics.

However, the developments of the past week give the impression that the Chancellor could have made a more

conservative estimate




by Die


, the Chancellor's forecast assumes a daily increase in the

7-day incidence

of 2.786 percent.

In fact, however, the growth is significantly higher.

If the incidence continued to develop in this way, well over 20,000 new infections every day would be possible for Christmas.

The Merkel scenario from September 28th - 19,200 # Corona cases / day at Christmas - implicitly assumed a daily growth of the 7-day average of 2.786%.

But today the 7-day average is already 2.6x as high as anticipated in the Merkel scenario (10,224 vs 4009).

: embarrassed: @world

- Olaf Gersemann (@OlafGersemann) October 26, 2020

Corona in Germany: Merkel forecast still too low?

Statistician warns against misjudgment



Katharina Schüller also calculated

the possible daily

new infections

for Christmas


in the past few weeks

and comes to a similar result.

With an assumed

reproduction number

of 1.1, there would be around 13,000 new infections per day in Germany at Christmas.

However, with an

R value

of 1.2, approx. 64,000 new infections would be reached at Christmas.

The explanation for this: exponential growth.



gave a reproduction number of 1.39 for Germany on Sunday.

However, this is

only a calculation example under laboratory conditions

, which is difficult to apply to reality.

“With the



we are

assuming that everything will continue as before.

But if we

actually saw

such high

numbers of cases

, it cannot be assumed that politicians will stand by and stand by, ”emphasizes Schüller.

Much more, the bill should clarify how quickly the


could progress.

And the federal states have already tightened their corona measures, which should slow down the spread of corona.

In Munich, for example, stricter measures follow again due to the unstoppable increase in new infections *.

Corona in Germany: RKI reports 8,685 new infections

Update from October 26th,

6.30 a.m


On Sunday,


new infections

with the novel

Sars-CoV-2 coronavirus

were registered in




Robert Koch Institute

announced this early Monday morning.


infection numbers reported

by the


on Monday are skewed, however, because not all health authorities


their statistics on new infections directly to the

infectious diseases

authorities at the weekend


However, the 8,685

new infections

can be classified

in relation to the previous week.

Last Monday, 4,325 new registered

corona infections

were reported - less than half.

Since the beginning of the


, there have been 437,866 cases of

corona infection

in Germany that have been reported

to the

health department


Coronavirus in Germany: RKI warns of "diffuse spread" in some districts

Update from October 25, 2:17 p.m

.: Germany has 401 districts and independent cities.

According to the current

RKI management report

(as a PDF) from Saturday, more than half of them are now considered

corona hotspots

: The

seven-day incidence

in them currently exceeds the




cases per 100,000 inhabitants.

The nationwide value is now


- in the federal states of Berlin, Bremen, Hesse, North Rhine-Westphalia, Bavaria, and the Saarland it is currently even exceeded.

"In addition, there is an increasingly diffuse spread of


infections in the population

in numerous districts

, without the chains of

infection being

clearly traceable," writes the

Robert Koch Institute (RKI)



RKI President Lothar Wieler

© Tobias Schwarz / various sources / AF

Corona in Germany: Even on Sunday numbers well over 10,000 - Lauterbach with lockdown ultimatum

Update from October 25, 8:26 a.m

.: The corona forecast for Germany from


health expert Karl Lauterbach

is bleak.

It refers talking to the


editorial team here to the current urgent video appeal by

Chancellor Angela Merkel

* (CDU *) when he says: "If we do not succeed in the next two to three weeks, the

personal contacts

to limit, the numbers will have risen so much in a few weeks that we only have another


. " 

He received an objection in the video box

(behind the payment barrier),

however, from the other invited guests

Ingrid Hartges

, Dehoga managing director, and

Andreas Gassen

, head of statutory health insurance.

Lauterbach justified his assessment with the fact that so far there has been “no study on the risk of infection in hotels and restaurants” in Germany.

“In the past few days, the impression has arisen that the pandemic is mainly being fueled by private celebrations and large celebrations.

That was probably the case at times.

But that is no longer the case.

The virus is too widespread again for that, even among the elderly, "says the politician.


Karl Lauterbach (SPD) warns of non-compliance with the corona rules of a second lockdown in Germany.

© Jörg Carstensen / dpa

Update, October 25, 6.45 a.m.:

According to the official information from the

Robert Koch Institute

(RKI), the

health authorities






corona infections

within one day


The number has


within a week


Last Sunday (October 18th) there were 5587 new infections.

Corona in Germany: infections doubled within a week - R value increases

The number is now significantly


than the 14,714 new infections reported for Friday.

However, the officially reported numbers are always lower on Sundays.

On the one hand, because there is less


on the weekends

, on the other hand, because not all health authorities present new figures on Sundays.



to Sunday, on Monday (October 26th) or Tuesday a

significant increase in

the number of new infections could be expected.

Since the beginning of

Corona pandemic

have therefore in Germany officially


proven with the


infected (Stand. 25.10., 12:00).

The number of


increased by



in the past 24 hours to reach


According to the RKI,


R value

, which



infection rate

from about a week ago, increased slightly from 1.23 to


Statistically speaking, 10 infected people infect a total of around 14 other people with the



Corona in Germany: information from secret banks seeps through - politics with a gloomy forecast

First report

from October 24th:

Munich -

14,714 new infections

with the


were reported in Germany on Friday - record.

But that's probably not all.

As leaked from a secret video chat of the state chancellery heads of the federal states on Friday, politicians are expecting 20,000 infections per day in Germany in October or early November.

This is reported by the picture.

This would mean an additional increase of over 30 percent.

Stricter measures could then be adopted at the next Prime Minister's Conference on October 30th.

It is currently unclear what these are.

Schools and companies should remain open, so other areas would have to be restricted.

Coronavirus Germany: hotspot strategy unsuccessful?

Are there now nationwide measures?

As the newspaper further reports, the countries

are questioning


hotspot strategy


This strategy reacts regionally to the corona numbers.

The Prime Ministers agreed on this strategy on October 14th, and since then the corona numbers have assumed dramatic courses almost everywhere.

198 districts



incidence value

of 50.

It is usually no longer possible to follow up on all cases, as is the case in Berlin.


7-day incidence is

over 100

in a total of 35 counties nationwide

, including districts of the capital.

In the case of the record circles, the value is beyond 200.

According to Schalte, the health authorities in many countries are at their limit.

The federal states are therefore also discussing the measure of using short-time working to follow up on contacts.

The possibility of


the follow-up to

risk groups is

also an option



The number of deaths in Germany related to Covid-19 has passed the 14,000 mark.

Photo: Arne Dedert / dpa

© Arne Dedert

It is therefore also unclear what is






It is not clear whether the main distribution channel is actually via private parties, as claimed by the Robert Koch Institute *.

In many cases, the authorities simply do not know how the virus spread.



* is part of the Ippen network.

List of rubric lists: © FABRIZIO BENSCH / AFP

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2020-10-26

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