Corona in Germany: new infections below 10,000 - but they are distorted

The corona numbers in Germany are increasing dramatically.

The number of new infections has doubled again in one week.

Chancellor Merkel's prognosis now even appears to be an understatement.

• The number of corona cases in Germany is increasing rapidly.

  The R-value * was 1.39 on Sunday evening (October 25).

  The second

  wave

  * seems unstoppable.

• The new infections reported on Monday also confirm the rapidly increasing trend.

• In the meantime, Angela Merkel's prognosis even seems an understatement.

• This ticker is updated continuously.

Update from October 26th, 8.55 a.m.:

When

warned at the end of September that

could have

20,000

per day

at Christmas

, her statement was dismissed by some critics as scare tactics.

The developments of the past week suggest, however, that the Chancellor has made a

.

As the world journalist Olaf Gersemann notes on Twitter, the Chancellor's forecast assumes a daily increase in the

of 2.786 percent.

In fact, the growth is 2.6 times that.

If the development were as in

scenario, there would

currently only be around 4,000

day

in

.

If the incidence continues to rise so sharply, the number of new infections at Christmas could be significantly higher than the Chancellor's estimate.

The Merkel scenario from September 28th - 19,200 # Corona cases / day at Christmas - implicitly assumed a daily growth of the 7-day average of 2.786%.

But today the 7-day average is already 2.6x as high as anticipated in the Merkel scenario (10,224 vs 4009).

: embarrassed: @world pic.twitter.com/2lRZVJZi3Z

- Olaf Gersemann (@OlafGersemann) October 26, 2020

In Munich, for example, stricter measures follow again due to the unstoppable increase in new infections *.

Update from October 26th,

6.30 a.m

On Sunday,

8,685

with the novel

were registered in

.

The

announced this early Monday morning.

The

infection numbers reported

by the

on Monday are skewed, however, because not all health authorities

pass

their statistics on new infections directly to the

authorities at the weekend

.

However, the 8,685

can be classified

in relation to the previous week.

Last Monday, 4,325 new registered

were reported - less than half.

Since the beginning of the

, there have been 437,866 cases of

in Germany that have been reported

to the

.

Coronavirus in Germany: RKI warns of "diffuse spread" in some districts

Update from October 25, 2:17 p.m

.: Germany has 401 districts and independent cities.

According to the current

(as a PDF) from Saturday, more than half of them are now considered

: The

in them currently exceeds the

of

cases per 100,000 inhabitants.

The nationwide value is now

- in the federal states of Berlin, Bremen, Hesse, North Rhine-Westphalia, Bavaria, and the Saarland it is currently even exceeded.

"In addition, there is an increasingly diffuse spread of

infections in the population

in numerous districts

, without the chains of

clearly traceable," writes the

.

+

RKI President Lothar Wieler

© Tobias Schwarz / various sources / AF

Corona in Germany: Even on Sunday numbers well over 10,000 - Lauterbach with lockdown ultimatum

Update from October 25, 8:26 a.m

.: The corona forecast for Germany from

is bleak.

It refers talking to the

editorial team here to the current urgent video appeal by

* (CDU *) when he says: "If we do not succeed in the next two to three weeks, the

to limit, the numbers will have risen so much in a few weeks that we only have another

. " 

He received an objection in the video box

however, from the other invited guests

, Dehoga managing director, and

, head of statutory health insurance.

Lauterbach justified his assessment with the fact that so far there has been “no study on the risk of infection in hotels and restaurants” in Germany.

“In the past few days, the impression has arisen that the pandemic is mainly being fueled by private celebrations and large celebrations.

That was probably the case at times.

But that is no longer the case.

The virus is too widespread again for that, even among the elderly, "says the politician.

+

Karl Lauterbach (SPD) warns of non-compliance with the corona rules of a second lockdown in Germany.

© Jörg Carstensen / dpa

Update, October 25, 6.45 a.m.:

According to the official information from the

(RKI), the

in

reported

new

within one day

.

The number has

within a week

.

Last Sunday (October 18th) there were 5587 new infections.

Corona in Germany: infections doubled within a week - R value increases

The number is now significantly

than the 14,714 new infections reported for Friday.

However, the officially reported numbers are always lower on Sundays.

On the one hand, because there is less

on the weekends

, on the other hand, because not all health authorities present new figures on Sundays.

Thus,

to Sunday, on Monday (October 26th) or Tuesday a

the number of new infections could be expected.

Since the beginning of

have therefore in Germany officially

proven with the

infected (Stand. 25.10., 12:00).

The number of

increased by

people

in the past 24 hours to reach

According to the RKI,

the

, which

depicts

the

from about a week ago, increased slightly from 1.23 to

Statistically speaking, 10 infected people infect a total of around 14 other people with the

.

Corona in Germany: information from secret banks seeps through - politics with a gloomy forecast

from October 24th:

Munich -

with the

were reported in Germany on Friday - record.

But that's probably not all.

As leaked from a secret video chat of the state chancellery heads of the federal states on Friday, politicians are expecting 20,000 infections per day in Germany in October or early November.

This is reported by the picture.

This would mean an additional increase of over 30 percent.

Stricter measures could then be adopted at the next Prime Minister's Conference on October 30th.

It is currently unclear what these are.

Schools and companies should remain open, so other areas would have to be restricted.

Coronavirus Germany: hotspot strategy unsuccessful?

Are there now nationwide measures?

As the newspaper further reports, the countries

are questioning

the

.

This strategy reacts regionally to the corona numbers.

The Prime Ministers agreed on this strategy on October 14th, and since then the corona numbers have assumed dramatic courses almost everywhere.

198 districts

exceeded

the

of 50.

It is usually no longer possible to follow up on all cases, as is the case in Berlin.

The

over 100

in a total of 35 counties nationwide

, including districts of the capital.

In the case of the record circles, the value is beyond 200.

According to Schalte, the health authorities in many countries are at their limit.

The federal states are therefore also discussing the measure of using short-time working to follow up on contacts.

The possibility of

restricting

the follow-up to

also an option

.

+

The number of deaths in Germany related to Covid-19 has passed the 14,000 mark.

Photo: Arne Dedert / dpa

© Arne Dedert

It is therefore also unclear what is

really

the

.

It is not clear whether the main distribution channel is actually via private parties, as claimed by the Robert Koch Institute *.

In many cases, the authorities simply do not know how the virus spread.

(

List of rubric lists: © FABRIZIO BENSCH / AFP