Trump or Biden, who does AMLO want to win in the United States?

Was AMLO's visit to Trump necessary?

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(CNN) - It

was a beautiful day in the White House Rose Garden when the presidents of the United States and Mexico walked side by side to their respective podiums.

For President Donald Trump, the July 8 meeting appeared to be little more than a formality.

It could make some minor headlines, sure, but nothing that really stood out amid a fight for re-election and the growing coronavirus pandemic.

But for Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who made his first trip abroad as president of Mexico, an entire nation was watching.

• AMLO says Trump's comments on the coronavirus in Mexico are a form of electoral campaign

How would López Obrador, or AMLO, as he is popularly known, handle the president of the United States who had made insults to Mexicans a staple of his rise to political power?

Would you seize the moment to confront racist comments from Trump's past?

Would you reject the president for his derision of immigrants?

Would you remind Trump that Mexico hasn't actually paid for the promised border wall?

As someone who once explicitly called Trump a racist, it was to be expected that López Obrador would do just that.

But it did not.

Biden or Trump, what does AMLO prefer?

"We have received from you, President Trump, understanding and respect," said López Obrador, looking at Trump.

“Some people thought that our ideological differences would inevitably lead to confrontations.

Fortunately, this has not been the case.

López Obrador gave an enthusiastic speech promoting the relationship between the United States and Mexico and thanked Trump for his "kindness."

"His visit went very well because he came prepared," said Rafael Fernández de Castro, director of the Center for Mexico-United States Studies at the University of California at San Diego.

"He thought of his audience when he delivered his speech."

His audience was singular in nature: Donald Trump, the man running for re-election to the country's highest office more important to Mexico than anyone else.

Less than four months before the US presidential elections, López Obrador knew then very well that Trump could win.

Even now it might be the outcome you prefer.

But whether Trump stays four more years or Democrat Joe Biden takes office, the impact on America's southern neighbor will be pronounced.

If Trump wins, what does it mean for Mexico?

If Donald Trump wins a second term, his strategy in Mexico will likely take a similar tack to what we have seen so far.

But the lack of change should not be confused with a lack of impact.

The policies of the US administration have created some profound changes to date.

Let's start with immigration, in the face of which Trump has used coercive measures, such as threatening tariffs or closing borders, to force the López Obrador government to act in different ways.

The so-called Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP) were an excellent example.

Promoted in 2019 by the Department of Homeland Security, the program forced those seeking asylum in the United States to wait in Mexico for their applications to be processed.

He placed the burden of his care on Mexican border communities and local governments.

Trump was also eager to stem the massive flows of Central American immigrants through Mexico on their way to the US border.

So, with the threat of imminent tariffs if Mexico did not step up border security, López Obrador agreed to deploy Mexico's newly created National Guard.

The Guard was originally tasked with curbing the prolific drug-fueled violence that gripped the country, but was instead deployed on Mexico's southern border.

Amid the presence of new troops, the number of Central American migrants crossing into the United States dropped substantially.

Pressure tactics

It was a surprising change for López Obrador who, before taking office, urged Mexico to allow the safe passage of migrants to the United States.

López Obrador has defended his actions as always well intentioned, with human rights as a priority.

Those same threatening tactics could well be used again in a second Trump term with the administration's eye on another big problem: drugs.

"The next big step for the Trump administration with Mexico will be how to combat drug trafficking and organized crime," said Larry Rubin, president of the American Society in Mexico.

"Yes, Trump has been very frontal and direct with Mexico, but at least there is a very important working relationship that has resulted in multiple new agreements in other areas."

Trump has repeatedly blamed Mexico for allowing trafficking groups to ship drugs, and specifically opioids like fentanyl, to the United States.

It's unclear what, specifically, Trump wants done to quickly stem that unproven flow.

But now he has a proven tool to force the Mexican government to act in whatever way it sees fit.

Trump attacks Mexico and AMLO says it is propaganda 3:24

"[Trump] obtained serious and onerous concessions from Mexico by threatening to impose tariffs last year and could go the same way on opioids and fentanyl," said Arturo Sarukhan, former Mexican ambassador to the United States.

Promote the T-MEC

Promote the implementation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (T-MEC or USMCA), the new free trade agreement that went into effect earlier this year and could be Trump's most tangible foreign policy achievement to date It will also be a staple of a second term for the US president.

But in addition to immigration, drugs and trade, wait four more years for a Trump administration that focuses on little more than that.

«It doesn't care what happens in Mexico in terms of the rule of law, the separation of powers ... level playing field for business, attacks on freedom of the press, all of which are critical to the health of democracy in the future of Mexico, ”Sarukhan said.

I could add human rights violations, a sky-high murder rate and corruption to that list, none of which Trump has shown a substantial inclination to help solve, even though many of those problems are directly related to the voracious appetites of the Americans for drugs.

"The Trump administration has tended to view Mexico as a series of problems that should be addressed solely by Mexico through the use of tariff threats and taking advantage of the dissymmetry in the relationship," said Antonio Garza, a former US ambassador to Mexico.

If biden wins

Trump and Biden are very far apart on almost every issue.

Politics between the United States and Mexico will be no different.

The most tangible differences that would quickly be seen, under Biden's campaign plan, would be immigration policies.

In the first 100 days, Biden says he would end MPP and reinstate previous asylum laws.

That would allow applicants to wait in the US for their applications to be processed and not in the dangerous border cities of Mexico.

Any further advance of the US-Mexico border wall would also stop immediately, according to the campaign.

Biden also promises a more holistic approach to the opioid crisis.

His plan focuses on reducing US demand for drugs as a means of reducing the flow of opioids to the United States, rather than focusing on preventing Mexican criminal groups from supplying them.

Few details

His campaign website does not have many details or new ideas describing the actions that Biden would ask Mexico to take to reduce the flow of drugs.

Biden supports the T-MEC: The free trade agreement is something a Biden or Trump administration would likely work on to ensure a smooth implementation.

But perhaps the most stark difference between the two possible US administrations centers on the rhetoric and the nature of the political dynamics between the two sides.

"It's a return to normalcy, the status quo, the way we knew politics worked across the border," said Gladys McCormick, an expert on US-Mexico relations at Syracuse University.

"It would be much less volatile, much less, 'who the hell knows what happens' when you turn on the television."

A more predictable and less transactional foreign policy would likely be a hallmark of the Biden administration, including greater empowerment of Cabinet-level officials to carry out agendas.

No attacks

It is also safe to say that a Biden administration would not denigrate Mexicans as a key part of its electoral and political strategy.

"No more attacks on Mexico, no more using Mexico as a ... political piñata when it is convenient at the national level," Sarukhan said.

"The narrative, the rhetoric, the framework of the relationship will change profoundly."

Whether one agrees with the policies of the Trump administration or not, their tactics in carrying them out have been extremely effective in a Machiavellian way.

Mexico has done almost exactly what Trump asked of it.

Would a Biden administration be that effective?

Biden has shown before that he is not above linking bilateral relations to results on the ground.

As vice president, he was part of an Obama administration that withheld millions of dollars in aid to Mexico for alleged human rights abuses.

The administration also urged Mexico to curb the flows of Central American migrants.

Human rights and more

And Biden might not be as willing to ignore certain issues that Trump has turned a blind eye to, namely human rights and what critics would call López Obrador's continuing erosion of Mexico's democratic institutions.

"If [the López Obrador administration] really knew Joe Biden, some of them might be concerned that he will not prevent, whether in public or in private, talking about these critical issues," Sarukhan said.

One issue that Trump has not touched upon and that Biden almost certainly would is arms smuggling.

The vast majority of the powerful weapons that help fuel drug-related violence in Mexico come from the United States.

"Now, with Trump, it is not an issue," said Fernández de Castro.

“It is impossible to cooperate with him on this because he is seen as someone too close to the arms lobby.

That is something that really bothers Mexico.

So who does Mexico want to win?

Let's be the first to say that trying to estimate the preference of a country with more than 120 million inhabitants as if it were a monolith is silly.

Therefore, it is useful to divide it into three categories: the president himself, his administration, and the general public.

All five experts CNN spoke to suggested that López Obrador probably wants to see another Trump victory.

To an outside observer, this might not seem like the obvious choice.

But for the experts, it is clear.

"He would definitely like Trump to continue," Rubin said.

"He knows how [Trump] operates and they already have a rhythm to work well together."

By paying constant attention to Trump's wishes, López Obrador has made it clear that he is willing to work with the United States on its foreign policy goals, as long as it does not interfere with its domestic goals.

"He doesn't want to spend a nanosecond of his time dealing with foreign policy and, in particular, dealing with Donald Trump, so anything that means that he will not have Trump on top of him, he has accepted it," Sarukhan said.

If he did vote, experts say López Obrador would make his proverbial vote for Trump, a fellow populist with a penchant for nationalism.

"He appreciates the way Trump sees it," McCormick said.

"I think AMLO is much more comfortable working with someone like Trump than with traditional political figures."

Different feelings in government and population

Your administration in general might not feel the same.

Cabinet-level officials are responsible for dealing with the day-to-day machinations of a Trump White House beholden to the whims of a fickle president.

A Biden administration would likely make your job less chaotic, though perhaps not easier.

"Trump inserts a level of volatility that I imagine must exhaust some members of the AMLO administration," McCormick said.

"It would be more carrots and fewer sticks, and the carrots would result in the kind of transnational cooperation that would benefit both countries," Garza said.

The final part of the equation is the easiest.

Polls of the Mexican public throughout the Trump administration have consistently found that the US president's approval ratings are plunging, often in the single digits.

If the Mexican people voted, they would definitely vote for the Biden-Harris formula.

AMLO