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Corona in Germany: folk music cruise turns into superspreader event - no surprise for experts

2020-10-27T21:54:15.747Z


The corona numbers in Germany are increasing dramatically. The number of new infections has doubled again in one week. When evaluating the numbers, however, there are several aspects to consider.


The corona numbers in Germany are increasing dramatically.

The number of new infections has doubled again in one week.

When evaluating the numbers, however, there are several aspects to consider.

  • The number of corona cases in Germany is increasing rapidly.

    The R-value * was 1.3 on Monday evening (October 26th).

    The second

    wave

    * seems unstoppable.

  • The Germany map is colored dark red in relation to Corona.

  • There are several aspects to consider when evaluating the numbers.

  • This news ticker has ended.

    The continuation from October 27 can be found here.

Update from October 27th, 1:40 p.m.:

Due to the rapidly increasing number of

coronavirus infections

, Prime Minister Daniel Günther wants to

take

tougher

contact restrictions

for Schleswig-Holstein, as reported by the

German Press Agency

.

Ten people should be the new

upper limit

, spread over all areas.

The upper limit applies both indoors and outdoors and also for sports.

For example, amateur football has to take a break first.

Günther announced that this

measure would be ordered

independently of the results of tomorrow's conference of

prime ministers

and that it would be maintained for at least three weeks.

In mathematical terms, Schleswig-Holstein still has about twelve days ahead of the average

corona development

in all of Germany, said Günther.

They wanted to prevent being as difficult as other federal states in twelve days.

It is important to

keep

schools

and

daycare centers

open.

Corona virus in Germany: Prime Minister Söder talks about the Bavarian Corona timetable

Update from October 27, 1:01 p.m.:

The

state of Bavaria in

particular

is being hit hard by the second wave of the

coronavirus pandemic

.

The state government has already ordered a

lockdown

for two districts

.

Prime Minister Söder

speaks at a

press conference

on Tuesday afternoon

about the measures in Bavaria.

Coronavirus in Germany: Schlager cruise turns into a superspreader event

Update from October 27th, 11:16 am:

Among the participants in a

river cruise

from Passau to Frankfurt am Main, which took place from October 10th to 17th, two thirds tested positive for the

Sars-CoV-2 coronavirus

.

The

hygiene measures

ordered

on the MS Swiss Crystal apparently could not prevent an outbreak.

At the "Music River Cruise" in the evening, pop singers and folk musicians performed to entertain the guests.

60 of the 92 passengers have now tested positive.

Like the

virologist

Andreas Cerny to

blick.ch

states that the

corona outbreak is

no surprise.

"You spend days together in a small space, meet in a changing composition for dinner and at the bar, where you obviously don't wear a mask when consuming," says Cerny.

“This river cruise should not have taken place.

The planning was probably made at a time when the number of cases was still low, ”says the expert.  

Corona in Germany: Daily new infections again over 10,000

Update from October 27, 6.21 a.m.:

Since the beginning of the

coronavirus pandemic

,

449,275 people

in

Germany have

been infected with the

Sars-CoV-2 coronavirus

.

This is evident from the current figures published by the

Robert Koch Institute

on Tuesday morning.

The

RKI

has identified 11,409

new infections

compared to the previous day.

In the past week, 6868 new infections were reported on Tuesday.

In addition, the agency reports 42 new

deaths

related to

Covid-19

.

The total number of fatalities rises to 10,098.

However, the daily

new infections

are only partially comparable with the first

corona wave

in spring, as much more is now being tested.

The

RKI gave the

reproduction number

yesterday at 1.3.

This means that an infected person

infects

an average of 1.3 other people with

Sars-CoV-2

.

Corona in Germany: RKI publishes R-Wert - Chancellor pushes for Lockdown Light

Update from October 26th, 7:59 p.m

.: The number of

reproductions

in

Germany

has fallen.

After the

R value

on Sunday was 1.39, the

Robert Koch Institute

stated 1.30 in its management report on Monday.

The

Robert Koch Institute

, warned in his new situation report to the rapidly rising infection rates and made it clear: "Currently, an increasing acceleration of the transfer of the population in

Germany

to watch.

It is therefore urgently appealed that the entire population should be committed to infection protection. "

Update from October 26th, 6:01 pm

: In view of the massive increase in corona infections,

Chancellor Angela Merkel

(CDU) is

pushing

for new massive restrictions for restaurants and events, according to a report by the "Bild" newspaper.

In contrast to the

lockdown in

spring, schools and daycare centers should not be closed, apart from regions with particularly high numbers of infections.

The retail sector should also remain open, albeit with additional restrictions.

Corona in Germany: 272 of the 401 German districts are Covid-19 hotspots

Update from October 26, 4:43 p.m

.: More and more (dark) red spots can be seen on the Corona map of Germany.

The urban and rural districts with more than 50 (red) or 100 (dark red)

corona cases per 100,000 inhabitants

are

increasing

.

Currently, 272 of the 401 German districts are affected and are therefore considered a risk area.

90 of them pass the 100 mark. The densely populated federal states are hit particularly hard.

The following summary is based on information from the

Robert Koch Institute

.

  • Bavaria

    : 80 districts with an incidence of more than 50

  • North Rhine-Westphalia

    : 50 districts

  • Baden-Württemberg

    : 37 districts

  • Hessen

    : 25 districts

  • Rhineland-Palatinate

    : 22 districts

  • Lower Saxony

    : 13

  • Berlin

    : eleven out of 12 districts with an incidence over 50

  • Saxony

    : ten districts

  • Thuringia

    : nine districts

  • Saarland

    : six districts

  • Brandenburg

    : three districts

  • Saxony-Anhalt

    : two districts

  • Schleswig-Holstein

    : two districts

  • Bremen

    : The Hanseatic City of Bremen is affected, but Bremerhaven is not.

  • Hamburg

    : The Hanseatic City of Hamburg exceeds the limit.

  • Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania

    : The only state in which no corona hotspots are currently reported.

If you look at the absolute numbers,

Bavaria

,

North Rhine-Westphalia

and

Baden-Württemberg

are hardest hit by the pandemic.

Most of the people live in these three federal states, which is why the numbers have to be put in relation.

What about the incidence values ​​in the respective countries?

Here, too, the data is based on the interactive dashboard of the Robert Koch Institute.

The dates can change during the day.

The following list is based on information about 4:30 p.m.

  • Berlin

    : 122.6 cases per 100,000 inhabitants

  • Bremen

    : 121.2

  • Hesse

    : 109.0

  • North Rhine-Westphalia

    : 104.8

  • Saarland

    : 91.3

  • Bavaria

    : 87.2

  • Baden-Württemberg

    : 80.5

  • Hamburg

    : 74.8

  • Saxony

    : 71.2

  • Rhineland-Palatinate

    : 65.3

  • Lower Saxony

    : 51.4

  • Thuringia

    : 42.6

  • Schleswig-Holstein

    : 36.3

  • Brandenburg

    : 35.6

  • Saxony-Anhalt

    : 30.6

  • Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania

    : 28.0

The incidences in the respective federal states show that the situation in

Bavaria

,

Baden-Württemberg

and

North Rhine-Westphalia is

actually tense.

However, it is more precarious in

Hesse

and the two city-states of

Bremen

and

Berlin

.

The

Saarland also

has a very high

seven-day incidence

.

The east of Germany, on the other hand, still seems to be getting a better grip on the pandemic.

With the exception of

Saxony

, the new federal states are even below the critical 50 mark.

Corona in Germany: Merkel invites again to the crisis summit

Update from October 26, 2:23 p.m.:

On Wednesday, Chancellor Angela Merkel will again

consult

with the Prime Minister in a video conference about the worsening development of the

corona pandemic

.

Government spokesman Steffen Seibert announced this on Monday in Berlin.

Seibert emphasized that there was a serious development going on.

Bavaria's Prime Minister

Markus Söder

again emphasized the seriousness of the situation.

The CSU politician sees the fight against Corona in a crucial week.

"I do believe that it is pretty serious now, and that everyone has to make it clear again what it is about," said Söder on Monday at the Munich Media Days with a view to the next Prime Minister's Conference in a few days.

"This is the decision week."

Update from October 26th, 1:22 p.m.:

The coronavirus numbers are still rising particularly rapidly in North Rhine-Westphalia.

Only three regions have not yet been declared a risk area there.

In Bavaria, too, there are no signs of a positive development in the infection rate despite tightened measures.

Corona in Germany: clinics are again announcing postponement of non-urgent operations

Update from October 26, 11:54 a.m.:

Once again, the corona pandemic seems to have serious effects on ongoing hospital operations: In view of the increasing number of infections, the clinics in Germany are preparing

to postpone operations that can be

planned in many places

.

It is to be expected that "non-emergency interventions in particularly polluted regions and hospitals will have to be postponed again," said the managing director of the German Hospital Society, Georg Baum, of the "Augsburger Allgemeine" on Monday.

Baum called the rapidly increasing number of new infections "worrying".

"We know from spring that these new infections inevitably result in inpatient treatment cases."

At that time, every seventh corona infected person had to be treated as an inpatient in the hospital with a delayed interval in the course of the illness.

Corona in Germany: Beds in hospitals should be kept free again

In addition, it must be expected that a certain number of

beds

will have to be

kept free

.

"Unlike in spring, however, there will be no widespread and uncoordinated lockdown," added Baum.

In particular, the supra-regional supply of large clinics for important interventions should be guaranteed.

How much the situation has worsened again is shown, for example, by a corona outbreak in a hospital in the Bavarian district of Schongau *.

Coronavirus: Number of patients in German intensive care units tripled since the beginning of October

According to Baum, the number of 

corona patients in intensive care units

has

more than

tripled

from 373 to 1296

since the

beginning of October

.

578 of these patients required ventilation at the weekend.

Accordingly, 8400 of the more than 30,000 intensive care beds are currently free.

The hospital

society

sees the

shortage of nursing staff

as a central problem

.

The clinics therefore need "maximum flexibility" in staffing.

Baum demanded that the new care lower limits planned by the federal government should not be started from January.

Corona in Germany: Merkel's Christmas forecast much too low?

Statistician warns against misjudgment

Update from October 26th, 8.55 a.m.:

When

Angela Merkel

warned at the end of September that

Germany

could have

20,000

new infections

per day

at Christmas

, her statement was dismissed by some critics as scare tactics.

However, the developments of the past week give the impression that the Chancellor could have made a more

conservative estimate

.

As

reported

by Die

Welt

, the Chancellor's forecast assumes a daily increase in the

7-day incidence

of 2.786 percent.

In fact, however, the growth is significantly higher.

If the incidence continued to develop in this way, well over 20,000 new infections every day would be possible for Christmas.

The Merkel scenario from September 28th - 19,200 # Corona cases / day at Christmas - implicitly assumed a daily growth of the 7-day average of 2.786%.



But today the 7-day average is already 2.6x as high as anticipated in the Merkel scenario (10,224 vs 4009).

: embarrassed: @world pic.twitter.com/2lRZVJZi3Z

- Olaf Gersemann (@OlafGersemann) October 26, 2020

Corona in Germany: Merkel forecast still too low?

Statistician warns against misjudgment

The

statistician

Katharina Schüller also calculated

the possible daily

new infections

for Christmas

for

focus.de

in the past few weeks

and comes to a similar result.

With an assumed

reproduction number

of 1.1, there would be around 13,000 new infections per day in Germany at Christmas.

However, with an

R value

of 1.2, approx. 64,000 new infections would be reached at Christmas.

The explanation for this: exponential growth.

The

RKI

gave a reproduction number of 1.39 for Germany on Sunday.

However, this is

only a calculation example under laboratory conditions

, which is difficult to apply to reality.

“With the

forecast

calculations

we are

assuming that everything will continue as before.

But if we

actually saw

such high

numbers of cases

, it cannot be assumed that politicians will stand by and stand by, ”emphasizes Schüller.

Much more, the bill should clarify how quickly the

pandemic

could progress.

And the federal states have already tightened their corona measures, which should slow down the spread of corona.

In Munich, for example, stricter measures follow again due to the unstoppable increase in new infections *.

Corona in Germany: RKI reports 8,685 new infections

Update from October 26th,

6.30 a.m

.:

On Sunday,

8,685

new infections

with the novel

Sars-CoV-2 coronavirus

were registered in

Germany

.

The

Robert Koch Institute

announced this early Monday morning.

The

infection numbers reported

by the

RKI

on Monday are skewed, however, because not all health authorities

pass

their statistics on new infections directly to the

infectious diseases

authorities at the weekend

.

However, the 8,685

new infections

can be classified

in relation to the previous week.

Last Monday, 4,325 new registered

corona infections

were reported - less than half.

Since the beginning of the

pandemic

, there have been 437,866 cases of

corona infection

in Germany that have been reported

to the

health department

.

Coronavirus in Germany: RKI warns of "diffuse spread" in some districts

Update from October 25, 2:17 p.m

.: Germany has 401 districts and independent cities.

According to the current

RKI management report

(as a PDF) from Saturday, more than half of them are now considered

corona hotspots

: The

seven-day incidence

in them currently exceeds the

mark

of

50

cases per 100,000 inhabitants.

The nationwide value is now

68.4

- in the federal states of Berlin, Bremen, Hesse, North Rhine-Westphalia, Bavaria, and the Saarland it is currently even exceeded.

"In addition, there is an increasingly diffuse spread of

Sars-CoV-2

infections in the population

in numerous districts

, without the chains of

infection being

clearly traceable," writes the

Robert Koch Institute (RKI)

.

+

RKI President Lothar Wieler

© Tobias Schwarz / various sources / AF

Corona in Germany: Even on Sunday numbers well over 10,000 - Lauterbach with lockdown ultimatum

Update from October 25, 8:26 a.m

.: The corona forecast for Germany from

SPD *

health expert Karl Lauterbach

is bleak.

It refers talking to the

picture

editorial team here to the current urgent video appeal by

Chancellor Angela Merkel

* (CDU *) when he says: "If we do not succeed in the next two to three weeks, the

personal contacts

to limit, the numbers will have risen so much in a few weeks that we only have another

lockdown

. " 

He received an objection in the video box

(behind the payment barrier),

however, from the other invited guests

Ingrid Hartges

, Dehoga managing director, and

Andreas Gassen

, head of statutory health insurance.

Lauterbach justified his assessment with the fact that so far there has been “no study on the risk of infection in hotels and restaurants” in Germany.

“In the past few days, the impression has arisen that the pandemic is mainly being fueled by private celebrations and large celebrations.

That was probably the case at times.

But that is no longer the case.

The virus is too widespread again for that, even among older people, ”says the politician.

+

Karl Lauterbach (SPD) warns of non-compliance with the Corona rules of a second lockdown in Germany.

© Jörg Carstensen / dpa

Update, October 25, 6.45 a.m.:

According to the official information from the

Robert Koch Institute

(RKI), the

health authorities

in

Germany

reported

11,176

new

corona infections

within one day

.

The number has thus roughly

doubled

within a week

.

Last Sunday (October 18th) there were 5587 new infections.

Corona in Germany: infections doubled within a week - R value increases

The number is now significantly

lower

than the 14,714 new infections reported for Friday.

However, the officially reported numbers are always lower on Sundays.

On the one hand, because there is less

testing

on the weekends

, on the other hand, because not all health authorities present new figures on Sundays.

Thus,

compared

to Sunday, on Monday (October 26th) or Tuesday a

significant increase in

the number of new infections could be expected.

Since the beginning of

Corona pandemic

have therefore in Germany officially

429,181

proven with the

coronavirus

infected (Stand. 25.10., 12:00).

The number of

deaths

increased by

29

people

in the past 24 hours to reach

10,032.

According to the RKI,

the

R value

, which

depicts

the

infection rate

from about a week ago, increased slightly from 1.23 to

1.36.

Statistically speaking, 10 infected people infect a total of around 14 other people with the

virus

.

Corona in Germany: information from secret banks seeps through - politics with a gloomy forecast

Initial report of 24 October:

Munich -

14,714 new infections

with the

coronavirus

were reported on Friday in Germany - record.

But that's probably not all.

As leaked from a secret video chat of the state chancellery heads of the federal states on Friday, politicians are expecting 20,000 infections per day in Germany in October or early November.

This is reported by the picture.

This would mean an additional increase of over 30 percent.

Stricter measures could then be adopted at the next Prime Minister's Conference on October 30th.

It is currently unclear what these are.

Schools and companies should remain open, so other areas would have to be restricted.

Coronavirus Germany: hotspot strategy unsuccessful?

Are there now nationwide measures?

As the newspaper further reports, the countries

are questioning

the

hotspot strategy

.

This strategy reacts regionally to the corona numbers.

The Prime Ministers agreed on this strategy on October 14th, and since then the corona numbers have assumed dramatic courses almost everywhere.

198 districts

exceeded

the

incidence value

of 50.

It is usually no longer possible to follow up on all cases, as is the case in Berlin.

The

7-day incidence is

over 100

in a total of 35 counties nationwide

, including districts of the capital.

In the case of the record circles, the value is beyond 200.

According to Schalte, the health authorities in many countries are at their limit.

The federal states are therefore also discussing the measure of using short-time working to follow up on contacts.

The possibility of

restricting

the follow-up to

risk groups is

also an option

.

+

The number of deaths in Germany related to Covid-19 has passed the 14,000 mark.

Photo: Arne Dedert / dpa

© Arne Dedert

It is therefore also unclear what is

really

driving

the

pandemic

.

It is not clear whether the main distribution channel is actually via private parties, as claimed by the Robert Koch Institute *.

In many cases, the authorities simply do not know how the virus spread.

(

cg)

* merkur.de is part of the Ippen network.

List of rubric lists: © Transocean_Tours / dpa

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2020-10-27

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