U.S. Elections 2020
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Biden wants to return to diplomacy, but there are those in Iran who prefer Trump
The Democratic candidate said that if he won he would return to the nuclear deal on the condition that Tehran return to obey it.
However, there are those in Tehran who believe that a better agreement will be reached with Trump: "He is a businessman, he does not want trouble."
Deadline - Iranian presidential election in May, in which the radical camp is expected to win
Tags
United States
Joe Biden
Iran
Donald Trump
Nuclear Agreement
Reuters
Wednesday, October 28, 2020, 10:45 p.m.
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In the video: The last confrontation before the election between Trump and Baiden (Photo: Reuters, Editing: Shaul Adam)
Joe Biden plans to undo the maximum pressure policy on Iran, which he called a "dangerous failure," if he defeats President Donald Trump, but after years of tension, his diplomatic approach to the United States' historic enemy could be a particularly difficult challenge.
The Democratic nominee, who was Barack Obama's deputy when the international nuclear deal with Iran was signed in 2015, promised that if Tehran fulfilled its commitments, he would return to the agreement, from which Trump withdrew in 2108 and re-imposed sanctions.
In parallel with Iran's economic collapse since then, its relations with Washington at the boiling point and the international consensus regarding its nuclear activities - which the West suspects were destined to develop a nuclear bomb - have deteriorated.
The pressure on the Iranian leadership to remove the burden of sanctions is enormous.
The regime's support base stems from the low class, which has difficulty surviving the rise in prices for bread, cooking oil and other basic products.
Prices soared due to the fall in the real, and the corona plague only increased the pressure.
The Iranian media routinely reports on layoffs and strikes of those who have not received salaries for months.
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The agreement was signed while he was Obama's deputy.
Biden (Photo: Reuters)
Among the obstacles facing Biden is Iran's distrust of the United States, which deepened significantly after Trump withdrew from the agreement.
Only on Monday did the Ministry of Finance impose new sanctions on significant elements in Iran's oil sector due to their support for the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards.
"Why should we trust Biden? He's like Obama. You can not trust the Democrats," said an official from the hawkish camp in the regime, who is close to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
He added that Trump may eventually offer a better agreement than that of 2015.
Trump and Biden have yet to elaborate on how they plan to persuade Iran to agree to their various approaches.
The Republican president has said he wants the new agreement to include Iran's missile program and its support for militias in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.
Biden, for his part, appears to be interested in returning to the 2015 agreement as a basis for broader talks on Tehran's nuclear program, missiles and regional operations.
The pressure of the citizens due to the economic situation is increasing.
Khamenei votes in parliament, February (Photo: Reuters)
However, a return to the original agreement is not a simple matter.
Among the obstacles - Iran's demands for compensation for the damages from Trump's sanctions related to the nuclear program;
Tehran's expected demand for the removal of additional sanctions imposed since May 2018;
And the time and money it would take to dismantle and store the centrifuges it had re-installed, including at the Purdue compound, where it was banned from enriching uranium as part of the nuclear deal.
"Apart from a return to the agreement, the next US administration should compensate Tehran for the damage from the withdrawal and of course ensure that such violations do not recur," Iranian government spokesman Ali Rabia said on Tuesday in a conversation with reporters.
Iranian leaders have ruled out the possibility that they will freeze the missile program or change the regional policy of the Islamic Republic, although they said they have no intention at this stage to increase the missile range.
Tehran says it is ready to negotiate only on the condition that sanctions be lifted.
"It will be easier with Trump"
Despite the economic suffering and internal pressure to start negotiations, any potential agreement is not expected to be formed before the presidential election in the middle of next year, in which the hawkish camp is expected to win.
"If Biden wins, the talks will start after the presidential election. This will give the hawkish elements some leeway to ensure their victory in the election," an Iranian government official said.
An Iranian security source said that "a great deal of compromise should not be expected from Iran."
He said, "If Biden wins, don't expect too much maneuvering space (on Khamenei's part)."
While Iranian leaders have refrained from publicly supporting one of the candidates, some government officials have hinted that the radical camp close to Khamenei prefers Trump over Biden.
Not only because they think Iran can deal with Trump's business approach to diplomacy, but because the hostility he arouses among Iranians can be used by them in elections to present them as the nation's defenders.
"All of these issues can be discussed and resolved. Tehran needs the sanctions lifted and the Americans want a calm Middle East. A win-win solution can be reached. When there is a will, there is a way," the Iranian security source said.
"But it will be easier with Trump. He's a businessman and he does not want problems in his second term."
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