Commerzbank's chief economist, Jörg Krämer, has warned of the consequences of a second lockdown.
An economy cannot be switched off and on again at will, said Krämer.
Dr. Krämer, the German economy has recovered unexpectedly quickly since the lockdown. Now the federal government is planning new restrictions. Can you just turn the economy down and up again as it suits you?
No, an economy is not a machine that you can simply turn off and on again.
Companies are still weakened from the first lockdown, and many will not survive a second.
In addition, the lockdown * is shaking basic business confidence.
Who opens a business when they have to expect to have to close again when the next flu wave occurs, even if they have a good hygiene concept?
How dangerous would another partial lockdown be for the current recovery?
So far, I've been expecting gross domestic product to grow by one percent in the fourth quarter compared to the third.
Because of the lockdown, we get black zero at best.
And if measures are extended beyond the end of November, we quickly have a second recession.
Then the previously positive growth forecasts for the coming year are wasted.
Given the new restrictions, many industries such as retail, hotels, restaurants and bars face another setback. Do we need new aid programs for the economy here?
The aid programs are reaching their limits.
The state cannot save everyone.
What would the alternative be?
Differentiated measures against Corona * would be better than aid programs.
Why are we no longer relying on mass testing of vulnerable population groups in order to specifically protect them?
Why is it not mandatory to enter positive test results in the Corona warning app?
We restrict so many basic rights, but not data protection, although South Korea has achieved huge successes with its Corona * app.
In principle, would we in Germany still have any leeway with regard to new borrowing?
The German national debt will soon be 80 percent of the gross domestic product again.
That is as much as after the financial crisis ten years ago.
The state is slowly reaching its limits.
In view of the sharp increase in the number of infections, investors are also becoming nervous. Dax alone has lost around twelve percent since mid-October. How far can the stock exchanges go down now?
Stocks are expensive compared to slumped corporate earnings;
the lockdown in Germany and many other countries increases the risk of a recession.
Share prices are falling accordingly.
The risks still predominate.
* Merkur.de is part of the nationwide Ippen Digital editorial network.