Peace agreement in Colombia could hinge on US elections

Stop attacking Biden, congressman asks Colombian politicians 1:28

(CNN) -

As Colombia struggles with mounting anti-government protests, deteriorating security and the coronavirus pandemic, some local politicians are showing a burning interest in the outcome of the United States elections, which could be pivotal in the battle for the future of your nation.

At the center of that struggle is the 2016 peace agreement, which ended a 52-year armed conflict with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC).

The peace process has failed in the two years since current President Ivan Duque, who campaigned on a platform to reform the agreement, came to power.

Violence against social leaders has soared in rural areas where peace was supposed to bring prosperity, 146 former guerrillas of the extinct FARC have been killed and coca cultivation, considered a pattern of illegal activity in the country, has experienced a boom in the last government.

• OPINION |

  Colombian politicians should not take sides in the US elections

Colombia signs the new peace agreement 1:02

Colombia's role in the US elections

Colombian politics may not seem like the most obvious electoral issue to American voters, but it could play a vital role in deciding who will be the next president.

The reason is Florida, a key state on the battlefield that President Donald Trump won by just 112,911 votes in 2016. There are about 250,000 Colombian-American voters in the state, and Trump is fighting Democratic candidate Joe Biden for his support for.

Trump has shown little interest in Latin America beyond a focus on transactional foreign policy to reduce migration and support for the Venezuelan opposition, but he recently took the time to criticize the Colombian peace accord as a surrender to "narco-terrorists." »And praise former President Álvaro Uribe, a key opponent of the peace agreement who has many supporters in Florida.

Iván Cepeda claims to have evidence of electoral interference from the Colombian ambassador 0:30

Meanwhile, Biden has done his own work for Colombian-American voters, including writing opinion pieces in the South Florida Sun Sentinel and El Tiempo newspapers that underscore his record of supporting Colombia and the peace agreement.

"I have said many times that Colombia is the cornerstone of United States policy in Latin America and the Caribbean," Biden wrote in the newspaper El Tiempo.

The former vice president also evoked his key role in the implementation of Plan Colombia, a US aid program that channeled US $ 10 billion to the country to counter the FARC insurgency and drug trafficking between 2000 and 2016.

Álvaro Uribe's arrest: keys to the case against him 2:27

A threatened peace agreement

While Biden and Trump vie for a quarter of a million votes in Florida, in Colombia a fragile peace hangs by a thread.

Iván Duque's government has been working to dismantle the peace accord since he took office in August 2018. The president has been slow to distribute land to small farmers in rural areas under the agrarian reforms established by the peace accord.

His attempts to change certain articles, including those that protect ex-guerrillas from extradition or having to pay reparations to victims, have been accused of prompting some FARC members to take up arms again.

Although he says the agreement needs to be changed to make it fairer for FARC victims, Duque has faced significant criticism for his handling of the process and has failed to control the worsening security situation and growing concern over abuses of human rights.

Although Duque has not made a statement about the US elections, there is little doubt that his administration appreciates Trump's disregard for the peace deal, as he would rather be allowed to continue to weaken the agreement without pressure from Washington.

Analysts say a Democratic administration is more likely to oppose the changes.

Uribe and the «Castrochavism»

Some Colombian politicians who also oppose the peace deal have even been accused of promoting Trump's re-election campaign.

Among them is Colombian congressman Juan David Vélez, from the ruling Centro Democrático party.

Vélez acts as a kind of ambassador for Colombians in the United States.

Velez, an outspoken Trump supporter, recently tweeted in English: "Let's make Colombia great again" along with a retweet of Trump's claim that Biden is a "CASTROCHAVISTAS PUPPET."

That phrase of "Castrochavistas" is common among Latin American politicians who invoke a fear of leftist politicians Fidel Castro and Hugo Chávez.

Velez has also retweeted videos of Trump's campaign and Florida's Republican Gov. Ron de Santis.

Another right-wing Colombian senator, María Fernanda Cabal, has even produced pro-Trump videos on social media.

Cabal has written anti-Biden opinion pieces designed to influence the Latino vote in Florida.

She told CNN that a second term from Trump would bring peace and prosperity to Colombia, and described Biden as a "socialist," echoing a common and inaccurate line of attack between Trump and his allies in Florida.

Cabal also criticized the peace agreement as "the largest money laundering operation in the history of Colombia," as he believes it allowed the FARC to invest the proceeds of their criminal activities in legitimate businesses.

• As loved as hated: former president Álvaro Uribe is a figure that divides Colombians

Fears about long-term effects

These efforts to spread anti-Biden sentiment break long-standing conventions on neutrality in national elections and have raised concerns about long-term damage to relations between the United States and Colombia.

Democratic Congressmen Gregory Meeks and Rubén Gallego criticized Velez and Cabal for taking sides in the election in a CNN op-ed on Saturday.

"Show us the respect by staying out of our elections," wrote the US congressmen, criticizing his remarks as a "form of electoral interference."

The United States Ambassador to Colombia, Philip S. Goldberg, also called for Colombian politicians to stay out of the elections.

"For many years, successful relations between the United States and Colombia have been based on bipartisan support," wrote Goldberg, who was appointed by Trump in August 2019. "I urge all Colombian politicians to avoid getting involved in the US elections." .

Cabal told CNN that the allegations of election interference are "laughable."

The opposition fears negative consequences for the peace process

Meanwhile, Colombian opposition figures fear possible consequences for the peace deal if Trump is re-elected.

Senator Iván Cepeda of the long-winded leftist Alternative Democratic Pole Party fears that a second Trump term could embolden the right-wing majority in the Colombian Congress to resign from the deal.

"I am not going to take a position in favor of any candidate, but it is sad to see something as serious as the peace accord used as a campaign tool for a handful of votes in South Florida," Cepeda said.

The seriousness of the situation is underscored by the worsening violence due to continued attacks on the peace agreement.

In the four years since the agreement was signed, 971 social leaders have been assassinated, according to the Institute for Peace and Development Studies.

Despite mounting criticism of deteriorating human rights, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo did not mention the killings during a visit to Bogotá on September 19, but instead praised Duque's work in fighting drug trafficking and the promotion of investment by the US private sector in rural areas of Colombia.

Experts believe that a Biden administration would put more pressure on Duque to protect human rights defenders.

"Biden would be more supportive of the peace process and criticize the assassinations of social leaders in Colombia," said Adam Isaacson, director of defense oversight for the Washington Office for Latin America, WOLA.

Biden spoke about his hopes for the peace agreement during a visit to Bogotá in 2018. "Exiting the agreement and going back to the battlefield is not the right answer," he said.

"Colombians have suffered a lot and for too long due to the lack of peace."

Biden is likely to continue to have a strong interest in the country if elected.

But some worry that the outspoken support the Democratic Center Party has shown for Trump could damage future relations with the Biden presidency.

Gabriel Silva Luján, Colombia's former ambassador to Washington and Uribe's defense minister, fears that Colombia's ruling party's decision to approach the Republicans could result in "immense costs" for Colombia if Biden wins.

Duque will not only have to answer for the deterioration of the human rights situation, but could also ask for the support of the United States for the looming economic crisis, Luján wrote in an opinion article for the Colombian newspaper El Tiempo on 19 October.

In that case, cordial relations with whoever occupies the White House would help defend their case.

"The Government (Duque) cannot expect the magnanimity of the Democrats to forgive him for his significant, indiscreet and impertinent involvement in the US elections," Luján warned.

Peace Agreement in Colombia Álvaro Uribe VélezJoe Biden