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Polls for the US election 2020: Trump lagging behind - Biden in front of huge surprise in "Swing State"

2020-10-30T21:48:00.521Z

The US president is not directly elected. This is why surveys are often difficult to evaluate. We provide an overview of the developments before the 2020 US election.



The US president is not directly elected.

This is why surveys are often difficult to evaluate.

We provide an overview of the developments before the 2020 US election.

  • On November

    3rd,

    the Americans can elect their new president.

  • Before the 2020 presidential election,

    forecasts

    will be made based on

    surveys

    .

  • In the

    2020 US election

    , Donald Trump and Joe Biden are direct competitors.

  • With our free US election newsletter you are always well informed.

Update from October 30, 2:55 p.m.:

The decisive

US states

for the

2020 US election

are the so-called

swing states

, highly competitive regions that do not go straight to the Republicans or Democrats from the outset.

The

New York Times

sees 15 states in which

Donald Trump

and

Joe Biden

could be

close

.

Who is currently leading where?

For example,

according to the data

analysts at FiveThirtyEight

, it's in

Iowa

very close.

In the state with predominantly small communities with village or small town character, the Democrats dominated for many years, but in 2016 Trump won.

Only in October did Biden manage to briefly gain the upper hand, according to surveys.

Texas

too

is a swing state in this election, which the Republicans will find difficult to cope with.

Historically, now rapidly growing Texas has been a safe bet for the party.

But the demographics are changing.

Trump is currently slightly ahead in the polls.

In

Ohio

Trump lost around 1.5 percentage points in the past few days.

Since the spring, the two presidential candidates have been taking turns when it comes to leadership.

While in

Georgia

in August and September

Trump was still ahead, was able to overtake Biden in October.

Nationwide

, Biden is still clearly ahead, currently with just under nine percentage points.

US election 2020: “Millennials” could play a key role in the election

Update of 29 October, 9:40:

According to the latest figures from the "US Elections Project" the political scientist Michael McDonald of the University of Florida have already more than 76 million Americans their

vote

by

absentee ballot

( "Early Voting") for the

presidential election in 2020

given.

For comparison: four years ago, a total of 137 million people

voted

.

This corresponds to more than half the

votes

received by the

election

were issued in the year 2016th

#earlyvote day-end update 10/28



At least 76 million people have voted in the 2020 general election 🥳https: //t.co/s8K2xFDeSA pic.twitter.com/ZhbDTpkw7B

- Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) October 29, 2020

The

"swing states"

, ie the states in which a head-to-head race between

Donald Trump

and challenger

Joe Biden is

announced, will

remain exciting until the end

.

The so-called

“Millennials”

- born between 1981 and 1998 - could play

a key role this year

.

With around 88 million, they are a voter group with huge potential.

63 percent of 18-29 year olds told the Harvard Public Opinion Project that they would "definitely vote".

In the

election

four years ago, this number was around 50 percent.

And

Joe Biden in

particular

seems to be on better terms with young Americans.

First-time and young voters tend to be more challengers than current

President

Donald Trump

.

"The young people realize that their voice counts," said politics professor Michale Hanmer from

tagesschau.de

.

According to the professor at the University of Maryland,

the

corona crisis in

particular is

sensitizing millennials to pay

more attention to

the

US election

.

Four years ago, Hillary Clinton lost the

election

because she could not mobilize enough young voters.

How important

millennials could become

in this

election

is shown by the fact that, according to current forecasts by the US political site “RealClearPolitics”,

Trump

could have overtaken

his rival

Biden

in Ohio and Florida.

Here you will find all the information about when a result of the US election can be expected.

On election night, many TV stations in Germany also broadcast the US election.

US election 2020: will Trump trick postal voting?

"Must have a final result on November 3rd"

Update from October 28, 9:19 a.m.: Just under

a week before the

election of

the

President

in the

USA

,

Donald Trump

again

shoots

against the

postal vote

via Twitter

.

According to the current president, the final result should be on November 3rd.

There would be “big problems and discrepancies” with postal voting.

He goes on to write: “(We) have to have a final result on November 3rd.” This increases the number of signs that Donald Trump will be confirmed as the new president on November 3rd.

Big problems and discrepancies with Mail In Ballots all over the USA.

Must have final total on November 3rd.

- Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 26, 2020

Due to the

corona pandemic

this year, it is expected that more Americans will vote by postal vote than ever before.

According to surveys, more democratic voters should make use of this option.

According to this, a scenario is possible in which

Donald Trump

himself could be ahead on election day until all slips of the

postal vote are

counted.

US election 2020: Trump and Biden ensure high voter turnout in the US

Update from October 27, 10:28 p.m.:

A week before

the

US

presidential election

, more than

69 million Americans

have already

cast their votes.

That corresponds to more than half of all the votes that were cast in the election four years ago, according to data from the

"US Elections Project"

by political scientist Michael McDonald of the University of Florida

on Tuesday

.

According to the FEC election commission, around

137 million Americans

voted in

2016

.

Because of the

coronavirus pandemic

, it is expected that more Americans than usual will make use of the opportunity to vote in person or by

postal

vote before the actual election day

.

According to the project's data, significantly more registered

Democrats

than

Republicans appear

to have cast their votes early.

Registering with a party does not necessarily say anything about voting behavior.

US election 2020: Trump and Biden with new campaign spots before the decisive phase

Update from October 27th, 7:24 p.m.:

Joe Biden

and

Donald Trump

want to

score points

with very different campaign

spots

in the last days before the

US presidential election

.

The Biden team presented a series of commercials on Tuesday in which the challenger, among other things, conjured up the unity of the deeply divided country and

affirmed

his support for the

"Black Lives Matter"

movement.

He also turned to the voters and called on them to end the "dark, angry politics" of recent years under President Trump.

In

contrast,

President Trump's

election campaign team

published a new spot accusing Biden of “lighting up the flames” in “burning cities” in the United States.

The advertising alludes to isolated outbreaks of violence in the wake of the protests against

racism

and

police violence

in recent months.

Just a week before the

November 3rd

US election

, Biden has

a clear advantage over

Trump in

terms of

campaign donations

and the associated

advertising budget

.

According to observers, he spends significantly more money on TV advertising in the contested states than the incumbent.

US election polls: decision is made in swing states

First report from October 27, 2020:

Munich / Washington, DC - One week before the

2020 US election

on November 3, the

survey tools

on social networks are slowly getting hot.

What expressiveness can be attributed to this is controversial.

Depending on the circles in which the questioner moves, the results are all different.

The 45th President of the United States,

Donald Trump (Republican)

, has collected a large number of polls on his Twitter page over the past few weeks.

The striking thing about them is the clear lead that Donald Trump has over competitor

Joe Biden

in most cases

.

If you take a look

around

the

Democratic

camp instead

, the picture looks different again.

Here Joe Biden usually leads Donald Trump.

This assessment is more in line with the official surveys carried out by universities, for example.

US election 2020: Trump wants the polls to speak for themselves - and gets a direct counterattack

A user on Twitter pointed out to

Donald Trump

that it was not really meaningful to

pick

a

suitable survey

.

After all, you could then choose one of the polls in which

Joe Biden is

way ahead of Trump.

Not to say you are wrong, but picking 1 recent poll out of 20+ polls might be selection bias.

We could also pick Biden +12 in the USC poll but that would be just as wrong as picking one poll with a favorable result.



Everyone should vote.

And let all the votes be counted.

pic.twitter.com/whTDva8DPx

- Bob McNab (@mceconomist) October 27, 2020

2020 US presidential election - will Americans vote for Biden or for Trump?

The

USC Dornsife department of

the

University of Southern California (USC)

studies and tracks the opinions of 6,000 Americans about the

2020 presidential election

in the

USA

and how these will change over time.

The numbers for a day are based on the assessments of the last fourteen days.

The

USC Dornsife

poll

shows a strong tendency towards a

majority

for

Joe Biden

.

He has been between nine and twelve percent ahead of Donald Trump since the end of August.

The last five assemblies follow (as of October 27, 2020, 2:41 p.m.):

Day

Donald Trump

Joe Biden

head Start

10/26/2020

42.5

53.28

+10.78

October 19, 2020

41.87

53.51

+11.64

10/12/2020

41.29

53.97

+12.68

05/10/2020

42.25

52.8

+10.55

09/28/2020

42.18

51.57

+9.39

Biden before Trump?

Surveys show a clear picture - but how meaningful is it?

Due to the

electoral system in the USA

, however, the individual votes are not relevant for winning the election.

The

Americans

choose so-called election People / electors, not the president directly.

To win the

presidential

election, a candidate must win a majority of the electorate.

The technology company Morning Consult conducts over 4,000

surveys

with potential voters

every day

and has achieved the following

results

:

  • At the

    national level

    , Biden (52%) leads with nine percent ahead of Trump (43%).

  • In the

    “unsafe” states

    , Biden leads in Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - while Trump only got a lead in South Carolina.

    The following are still unsafe: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas.

According to the results of

Morning Consult

leading

Democrats

even in the

congressional elections in 2020

against the

Republicans

.

This is particularly relevant after the 2018 elections, as Donald Trump had to give up some power even then.

Congress is crucial when it comes to implementing political ideas in the

US

.

Click

here for the old ticker about the US elections 2020.

(jey)

List of rubric lists: © Chris O'meara / AP / dpa / Andrew Harnik / AP / dpa (photo montage)

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2020-10-30

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