Donald Trump, glory or twilight: 5 reasons you can win and 5 reasons you can lose

Four days before the US Elections, the president has 7.7 points less than his rival Joe Biden in the polls, but a similar difference had in 2016 and ended up winning.

What can happen?

Paula lugones

10/30/2020 6:21 AM

• Clarín.com

• World

Updated 10/30/2020 6:21 AM

Against the vast majority of polls, Donald Trump, a New York real estate mogul and popular reality show star, beat Hillary Clinton in the November 2016 election and became the most controversial president in US history.

After an unusual and turbulent management, with points that still excite certain sectors of the population, Trump seeks this Tuesday to extend his mandate for another four years and puts his self-proclaimed reputation as a "winner", the man who never loses anything. .

Trump is now 7.7 points lower than rival Joe Biden in polls, but he had a similar gap in 2016 and ended up winning.

After Clarín's extensive tour of key places in the United States such as Florida, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin, interviewing dozens of workers, officials, opponents and analysts, here are five reasons why they could reelect him and others for which he could be ejected from the White House.

The hits

vs

The mistakes

Why can you win

​

1. The economy recovers

It's Trump's main strength these days, despite the pandemic.

Until Covid19 broke out in the world, the United States economy was strong and, although there was a slowdown in growth and damage in some sectors as a result of the trade war with China, unemployment had fallen to historical levels (3.4%) and Wall Street was climbing day by day.

After a dramatic drop due to pandemic restrictions, this Thursday it was announced that GDP rebounded and

Unemployment is also recovering apace.

This is good news for Trump in the final leg of the campaign.

Most Americans, especially in key states, are confident that a businessman can handle the economy better than Biden in times of crisis.

In addition, businessmen, the countryside and citizens in general welcomed subsidies in soft loans and cash during the pandemic.

The economy is the most important issue for voters, according to a Pew poll.

How it got here

• Party:

  Republican Party

• Age:

  74 years

• Date of birth:

  06.14.1946

• Place of birth:

  Queens, New York

• Profession:

  Entrepreneur

• First electoral office:

  President (2017)

• Positions held:

  President

Elusive deals

In 2019, Donald Trump became the first American president to cross the line of war between South and North Korea.

In the demilitarized zone between the two countries, he met for the third time with the leader of North Korea, Kim Jong-un, in an attempt to reach a nuclear agreement, which has not yet been finalized.

Both had already met in Singapore, and in Vietnam, also in 2019.

Owner of the evangelical vote

In January 2016, Trump gave a campaign speech at a small Christian college called DordtUniversity in Iowa. It was there that he claimed that he “could murder someone on Fifth Avenue and no one would do anything to me,” a statement that was reproduced throughout. the media.

But that day he also assured the audience that, with him, “Christianity would once again have power,” thus sealing an alliance with the evangelical Christian movement, a segment that was crucial to his arrival at the presidency.

Unfortunate phrases

Throughout his presidential campaign in 2016, Trump expressed his devotion to the Army.

Some media claimed that he even requested a military parade for his inauguration ceremony in Washington DC.

Despite this, they have criticized and mocked soldiers who are captured or killed in combat.

In 2015, he claimed that he preferred soldiers "who are not captured," an allusion to criticism he received from former Republican presidential candidate John McCain, who was a prisoner of war in Vietnam.

Changing positions

From an economic point of view, Trump was an unusual candidate.

While he ran as a Republican, he offered proposals that appealed to a working class that in recent decades was more akin to the Democrats.

However, once elected, his policies were characterized by reverting to the orthodoxy of the Republican Party: his proposal to launch a large infrastructure-building program and increase taxes on the wealthiest was replaced by greater deregulation and tax cuts.

America first

Moving away from a global governance scheme and favoring national sovereignty has been a goal of Trump since he came to power.

Thus it was that in his first months of government he withdrew from the Paris Agreement, referring to climate issues, and from the Trans-Pacific Agreement for Economic Cooperation, a free trade agreement in the Pacific region.

In the same way, he has ordered the United States to withdraw from the World Health Organization, and has strongly criticized the role of NATO.

2. Your electoral base

The most ultra-conservative sectors that voted for Trump in 2016 still continue to support him, as evidenced within the country.

In general, they

, industrial, field, coal or oil workers who voted for the magnate and agreed with several of his measures such as environmental deregulations that favor traditional industries and energies and for his strong support of fracking, vital issues in decisive states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Ohio.

They also celebrate restrictions on the entry of immigrants, whom they see as a threat to their jobs.

And they endorse the emblem of "America first", with greater economic protectionism, the renegotiation of NAFTA, a brake on Chinese imports, the withdrawal of global pacts such as the environmental one in Paris and the non-interference in more international conflicts.

Although international politics does not have as much weight when it comes to voting, Trumpist bases see the president as a "pragmatic" and executive leader "who makes things happen" such as the meeting with the North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Un (despite the fact that violates human rights), the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan or the signing of the pact in the Middle East.

The electoral base of the president does not care about his style, that he does not show his taxes or that he has paid the treasury only $ 700 in several years or the chaos that exists in the White House.

and value, beyond the 230,000 deaths, that they have been free to reopen their businesses soon and not to wear a mask.

3. A conservative Justice

For Republicans and conservatives, the greatest achievement of Trump's first years in the White House is, without a doubt,

and that will guarantee that the values ​​that this sector promotes are defended.

During his tenure, the president managed to nominate three judges to the Supreme Court with life positions (Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett) and thus definitely tip the balance of the highest court to the right with 6 justices against 3 progressives.

But the footprint goes beyond the visible: one of the main missions of the Republican-majority president and Senate was to place young and conservative judges in the courts.

In his first term, Trump appointed 217 trial magistrates and nearly a third of the federal judges serving on appellate courts.

This judicial “shield” could put a stop to or reverse initiatives that defend abortion, global warming, gay marriage and other rights of the LGTBQ community or gun control, issues that conservatives see as a threat to their freedoms or principles. religious.

Since most positions are for life, this seal will last for generations.

Regarding the electoral issue,

if it had to define a possible vote count or situation of fraud in Tuesday's elections.

The election of the judges of the Court is the second most important issue for voters, after the economy.

4. The fear of "socialism"

While Joe Biden is far from being a “radical socialist” as Trump portrays him and is actually a moderate establishment man who receives Wall Street support, this description of the Democratic candidate promoted by the president is cited as a mantra in the interior of the United States.

Trump also links protesters against racism and police violence with militants from the anti-fascist organization ANTIFA and says that Democrats defend it.

Conspiracy theories circulate word of mouth and on social media.

heard in Florida many Latino voters who say that Biden can implant a regime like Fidel Castro in Cuba or Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela.

In Wisconsin or Pennsylvania they fear that it could put regulations that overwhelm private companies and even that it could "ban" beef cattle because their gases pollute.

In oilfields they are afraid that I will eliminate fracking to protect the environment.

Employers fear that taxes will be raised and that the minimum wage will rise to the stratosphere.

They do not directly accuse him but "people around him" such as Bernie Sanders (who defined himself as a democratic socialist), his running mate Kamala Harris and Representative Alexandria Ocasio Cortez.

If

manages to spread beyond the toughest sectors and reach the independents, Trump will benefit.

5. The "shameful" vote

Throughout history, few presidents have failed to achieve a second term.

The last was George Bush Sr.

According to the average of RealClearPolitics polls, Trump loses in the polls by 7.7 points, but the distance is reduced in the states that really matter,

model

predicts that there is a 96% chance that Biden will win the electoral college.

But the polls have been wrong and they are still very wrong.

In key states, where Trump won by a few votes in 2016 like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the race is tighter today.

Some of those who voted for the tycoon say they are now undecided but the feeling on the street is that many will re-elect the president and do not admit him publicly.

They are heard saying that they have not yet defined the vote, but that they want a strong leader who will take the country forward with management.

We must be alert:

was important in 2016 and may be even greater due to the controversial style of the tycoon that has become evident in these four years in the White House.

Perhaps among the more moderate and independent sectors, it is true, there may be indentations.

Why can you lose

​

1. You are no longer an "outsider"

With a style unlike anything known, Trump revolutionized the US campaign and won in 2016 as a businessman outside of politics and with the promise of "draining the Washington swamp."

It was in the midst of a crisis of economic inequality, where many sectors in Deep America felt a “basket of deplorable” - as Hillary defined them - voiceless, forgotten,

, and threatened by immigrants, deindustrialization and globalization.

Trump also joined a wave of populist movements in other parts of the world seeking strong leaders and a turn toward non-traditional figures.

After four years in office, the president continues to present himself as a man outside politics and whose path is strewn with stones set by the establishment.

But he is no longer an outsider of Washington, he is part of this city and its system.

that he promoted in 2016. People know his character and already have a management background.

He lost that great card of anti-system freshness.

2. Management of the coronavirus

Since the beginning of the pandemic in January, Trump has tried to minimize it, but in the United States

and a re-outbreak that appears in recent weeks.

The president publicly contradicted his health experts, recommended remedies that were not approved and even advised people to inject bleach.

He was a staunch opponent of the use of the chinstrap, perceived as a symbol of weakness, and said that the virus will go away soon when there are obvious signs that it is not.

In the midst of massive campaign events with supporters without masks, Trump and Melania were infected with the virus and were living proof that it is a worrying reality and that it is necessary to take care of yourself.

A Reuters poll indicates that only 37% of Americans approve of the president's performance in the pandemic,

.

Health and the coronavirus crisis are the second and fourth major issues for Americans, according to polls.

3. Lies and business

It is difficult to find someone in the United States who praises Trump's character.

The most fanatical of the president say that "he is not politically correct" and "says things as they are", but admit that they dislike his ways.

"Nobody is perfect," they say.

But in the streets and in polls, the majority express displeasure:

, according to a survey by Business Insider, while only 16% believe he is good.

Even among his strongest supporters, only 57% say they are convinced that he is a good person.

Noam comsky

Political scientist I

READ THE FULL NOTE

"The attack on democracy has reached the point where Trump warns that if he does not like the outcome of the upcoming elections, he can refuse to leave office.

Trump is of a new kind of malice, unprecedented in the history of parliamentary democracy.

We can't be sure where this will lead ”

John bolton

Former White House National Security Advisor

READ THE FULL NOTE

"Trump did not understand why we could not take Venezuelan oil, since, as he later asked to verify, Venezuela was part of the US He asked John Kelly, who at that time was chief of staff, if Finland was part of Russia, something it was like that more than 100 years ago, but tell the Finns today ... "

Trump has inaugurated a chaotic style in the White House, with officials resigning in a few months and describing a president who is egomaniacal, incompetent, dangerous and lacking in basic knowledge, who humiliates his collaborators and who makes decisions on impulse and not by strategy .

In addition, he insults journalists and the media, attacks his rivals on Twitter, retweets racist and homophobic messages,

and has even described Americans who died in combat as "losers."

On the issue of the coronavirus and racism and police brutality, he has not shown the slightest empathy with the victims.

Furthermore, he has blurred the lines between truth and lies because he has been able to utter 22,000 falsehoods since taking office, according to a tally by

.

He has also been denounced for transgressing the borders between his public activity and his personal businesses, such as the meetings he holds in his hotels.

Beyond the controversial decisions he has made, his explosive and aggressive statements contribute to widening the rift.

The country is divided as never before in history.

In contrast, Biden seeks to consolidate himself as a "common" man, empathetic, willing to close wounds and rule for all.

4. Those who abandoned him

In general terms, the large urban centers vote for the Democrats and the more rural ones for the Republicans.

And in the suburbs of the cities settle the more moderate and independent sectors, those who tend to tip the balance in elections.

The toughest ranks continue to elect Trump, but the president

middle-class

, which favored him in 2016. According to polls, he is losing mostly the vote of women and men. men over 65, who are concerned about health and the coronavirus crisis.

Women are overwhelmingly leaning towards Biden, who is 24 points ahead of Trump in that sector, even vastly outnumbering their support for Hillary Clinton.

They are fed up with presidential manners, with how he treats women, with his management with the coronavirus and with the difficulties of access to health.

In that sense, the president is not adding much lately.

He called

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi a

.

Older white men are drifting away too.

5. Great enthusiasm for voting

69% of Americans declare themselves "very motivated" to vote in these elections.

And this is seen right now with a large participation in early voting.

Almost 80 million people have already cast their vote and it is estimated that

.

It is not certain, but Democrats are more likely to vote early, especially since they are the ones who are most careful about the coronavirus.

In 2016, the turnout was 61.4%, according to Pew Research, because some sectors did not go out to vote, especially African Americans and some Democrats who had elected Bernie Sanders in the internal and did not support Hillary Clinton in the general election .

and Democrats are making dramatic calls on their constituents to come out to vote.

That they do not give up the election, despite what the polls say and that every vote counts, especially in key states.

Blacks (12% of the electorate)

this time to vote Democrats, amid national protests against racism and police brutality.

The fervor is also felt among Gen Z, those who are just of voting age and who, for the most part, hate Trump.

If these sectors usually reluctant to go to the polls truly mobilize, the president could lose his chances of staying another four years in the White House.

Know all the cities that Clarín visited

From Pennsylvania to New York

Bugle in the house where each candidate was born

"Pick and shovel" with Trump

Clarín, in the coal town of Welch

Miami, from the water

Clarín in the incredible "march" of yachts that support Trump

Trump vs.

Biden in Florida

A fierce battlefield for the Latino vote

Bugle in Ohio

The "rusty" state that always votes the winner

Bugle in Michigan

Where fear unleashes a rage for weapons

Clarín in Wisconsin

Will the countryside continue to vote for Trump?

Bugle in Kenosha

Does the black vote define the election?

Bugle in Pennsylvania

From Door to Door Campaign by Joe Biden

Look also

In photos: the many faces of Donald Trump

Look also

Elections in the United States: Clarín in York, where the campaign goes door to door by Joe Biden

Elections in the United States: Clarín in Kenosha, a reflection of the fury against racism and police violence