Natasha Niebieskikwiat
11/01/2020 4:47 PM
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 11/01/2020 4:47 PM
Just 48 hours before a crucial election in which Americans will decide whether to re-elect Donald Trump or give power to Joseph Biden, analysts, politicians and campaign strategists are placing their bets.
They assure that if the Republican remains in power, he will make little change in his major foreign policy guidelines.
What place would Argentina occupy in all that Agenda? What would change for the country if Trump or Biden win?
In the Casa Rosada they recognize that in the immediate future Argentina's foreign policy will have to balance between the United States and China, to which the Russia factor will be added, if the Democrats rise to power.
But in Washington they sentence:
"It is Argentina that must decide what relationship it wants with the United States."
Recently, in conversation with
Clarín
and other Argentine media, the Assistant Secretary for Western Hemisphere Affairs of the State Department,
Kevin O'Reilly
, said that if the United States changes the color of its government in the elections on Tuesday, there are basic frameworks of the strategy. national to be maintained.
"I do not see an abrupt change in our policies towards the region because despite any change of emphasis within this framework, the interests continue to go much further, they belong to the nation. We recognize the personal, cultural and economic ties that we have with the region for a long time and these do not change, or do not change dramatically, "he said.
In these eleven months, Alberto Fernández's relationship with Washington has been zigzagging, although less conflictive than the previous edition of Kirchnerism.
And it is one of the central aspects that Democrats and Republicans look at.
Whoever wins, Washington will keep the focus on the democratization of Venezuela, of
course, with nuances.
"Argentina has not shown interest in facing the democratic challenges and defending the human rights of the Venezuelan people, in coordinating with the Lima Group other countries that are highly involved in the issue, or in taking advantage of its relationship with the Caracas regime to promote negotiations that generate some vision for democratic transition, "Benjamin Gedan, a man in Biden's circle, said Thursday.
Director of the “Argentina” Project and Deputy Director of the Latin American Program of the Woodrow Wilson Center.
Gedan also said that he believed that the Argentine situation today "is serious", in economic matters, because of "the lack" of a macroeconomic plan in the eyes of the world, which is reliable for the outside and for the Argentines, due to the dominant role of Cristina Kircher in the governing coalition and because of the lack of unity in Argentine society.
By the way, economists who have permanent contact with Washington pointed out to
Clarín
that Argentina's relationship with the United States will continue to be "funded" in the short and medium term.
They indicated that the agenda of Ambassador Jorge Argüello is to compensate for the setbacks in Buenos Aires and to accompany the negotiations of Minister Martín Guzmán to reach a new agreement for the debt with the International Monetary Fund.
In the eyes of the Secretary General of the Argentine Council for International Relations, Francisco de Santibañes, the election in the United States becomes very important due to the two visions at the internal and external level represented by Republicans and Democrats.
This will define the future of competition with China and that includes Latin America, he said.
This was seen in Trump's move to put Mauricio Claver Carone in the presidency of the IDB.
Argentina led a crusade against the Cuban-American at a time when it needed Washington.
The consequences, minimal, are being seen: Claver Carone is appointing directors from many countries, so far there are no new Argentines.
If Biden wins, the relationship with Latin America would be "a little different", all the sources consulted affirm and it is clearly seen in the candidate's affinity with this region, not only because of his experience, as a senator and expert in foreign relations, but also because of his eight years as vice president of Barack Obama.
However, the antecedents do not speak of a good friendship with Kirchnerism during the eight years that Biden was vice president of
Barack Obama
.
He meets
Cristina Kirchner
but relations have drained away with even very conflictive episodes such as the briefcase of a Pentagon plane held by Customs in Ezeiza and whose codes were violated by former Foreign Minister Héctor Timerman.
Experience shows that the Peronist governments got along better with the Republicans.
This week, one of the PRO men
, Fulvio Pompeo,
former Secretary of Strategic Affairs of the previous government,
was in Washington
.
There Pompeo met with Republicans and Democrats, with think tanks, the number one in the OAS and the IDB and listened to the same manual claim for a country with relative importance:
free trade, freedom of expression, independence of the judiciary, recognition of private property and support for the return of democracy in Venezuela.
