The Venezuelan opposition struggles to stop attrition and discouragement

Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó during an appearance.JUAN GUAIDO PRESS OFFICE HANDOUT / EFE

The opposition to Nicolás Maduro entered a phase of confusion a week ago after months of internal tension and a leadership consumed by attrition.

The escape of Leopoldo López from Venezuela added uncertainty to the path taken by Juan Guaidó, president of the National Assembly and the main visible face of anti-Chavez.

His pulse with the Bolivarian Government was supported since the beginning of 2019 on the strategy designed by López.

And although the politician promises to continue his work from abroad, the symbolism and circumstances of that decision have deepened the discouragement.

The news emerged on the morning of October 24 and surprised not only the leader's supporters but also many positions of responsibility in the opposition ranks.

The confusion, the doubts about the operation, the probable misdirections increased the anxiety at least until López landed, the next morning, in Madrid.

After spending almost seven years in prison - first in the Ramo Verde military prison, then under house arrest and in the last 18 months sheltered in the residence of the Spanish ambassador, Jesús Silva - no one questioned his personal option, that is, the to be close to his family.

However, there have been many voices that, especially in private, have expressed their concern.

The escape occurred at the umpteenth decisive moment for the majority of the anti-Chavista forces.

That is, when there is little more than a month left for the legislative elections called by Chavismo for December 6 and while the opposition tries to organize an alternative consultation to those elections, to which it will not attend because it considers that they lack sufficient guarantees.

Furthermore, with the elections in the United States, whose administration has been key in attempts to weaken Maduro, behind the corner.

Guaidó, who maintains the recognition of nearly 60 countries as interim president, has had no choice but to appeal to what the opposition front never had: unity.

"The consultation represents the union, the meeting and summoning us to action against fraud and for free, fair and verifiable presidential and parliamentary elections," he said on Saturday from social networks as he sought to retake the pulse of the street with an act in the Caracas municipality Sucre.

"It is a success of the resistance of our society, a testimony of struggle in which we must all participate .... United we are going to achieve that our family returns, that there is justice without revenge, that Venezuela is reborn," he added. That referendum, whose Organizational details remain up in the air, it is also scheduled for early December.

The December vote became another bone of contention for leaders trying to force regime change.

Former presidential candidate Henrique Capriles then stepped forward and opened the door to their participation.

He did so in search of what he describes as a "real political fact" precisely after almost two years of attempts, international pressure and frustrated uprisings that have not prevented Maduro from maintaining firm control of the reins of the State.

Finally, Capriles also gave up the possibility of attending the parliamentarians because the European Union formally requested a postponement that the regime denied.

The lack of guarantees and the fact that there is hardly any international observation of the elections yet again widens the gap between Hugo Chávez's successor and his rivals.

The departure of Leopoldo López also triggered speculation about the possibility of a prior negotiation with Chavismo.

All the actors in some way affected flatly denied it: the staff of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV);

the Spanish Government that gave him protection through its diplomatic services and that spoke of a voluntary and personal decision of the politician;

and the opposition itself.

Maduro and his main collaborators also took the opportunity to denounce new attempts at interference from abroad, especially from the United States and neighboring Colombia.

Jorge Rodríguez, a former Minister of Communication and now a PSUV candidate for the legislative elections, went even further and linked López's flight with the planning of attacks.

"They are going to plan attacks from Spain, assassinations against leaders of the revolution and against candidates for deputies for the National Assembly, sabotage like the one that has just been perpetrated in our Amuay refinery," he launched in an appearance, reports Efe.

López was jailed in 2014 on charges of encouraging a wave of protests that led to clashes with security forces and left dozens dead.

For a week the Bolivarian Intelligence Service (Sebin) and the police forces have intensified the harassment against the politician's environment, with the journalist Roland Carreño, one of his main collaborators, at the head.

The agents even detained personnel hired by the Spanish Embassy, ​​at least six security guards who were released after a few hours.

Meanwhile, the diplomatic crisis between Caracas and Madrid, which resigned from appointing a new ambassador to replace Jesús Silva, who is about to leave office, is on the way to entering an apparent blind alley.

Unknowns and official denials

Only three irrefutable pieces of evidence are known about the escape of Leopoldo López.

The opposition leader left Venezuela after leaving the residence of the Spanish Embassy, ​​where he had been sheltered for a year and a half;

the flight happened on Saturday, October 24, in the morning;

and a day later the politician met his family in Madrid.

Everything else, about the route and the stopovers he made and the operation that made his departure possible, is abuzz with versions and details that run into the official denials of Chavismo, the opposition, the Spanish Government and López himself. that he wants to avoid compromising those who supported him as he stated at a press conference last week.

The truth is that the extraction of the residence of Ambassador Jesús Silva, in the exclusive urbanization of the Country Club in Caracas, had to have a prior organization and logistical support calculated to the millimeter.

Diplomatic units were surrounded by patrols from the Bolivarian Intelligence Service (Sebin) and the police since April 30, 2019, the day that López escaped from house arrest and requested protection from Spain.

One version, reported to EL PAÍS by sources familiar with López's last steps, points out that the agents received the internal order to withdraw.

And according to that account there are at least three police officers involved.

That extreme coincides with the same modus operandi as López on the eve of last year's failed uprising.

On that occasion, the anti-Chavista leader managed to leave his residence, where he was serving a measure of house arrest, thanks to the help of Sebin officers and other uniformed men.

That day also saw the desertion of the chief of intelligence, Christopher Figuera, who first fled to Colombia and later settled in the United States.

The path taken by López to leave the country is another of the unknowns.

Different sources placed him in Bogotá and Miami before arriving in Madrid.

To get to the border with Colombia and cross some informal passage, he would have had to face a journey of around 12 hours on a highway where there are usually dozens of checkpoints.

With these premises in the opposition ranks, the hypothesis that after leaving Caracas he would travel to Falcón State through a less traveled route and from there he would cross the more than 150 kilometers by boat to the island of Aruba.

The politician clearly stated that he does not want to provide details in case someone needs to resort to the same escape scheme.