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US election | Democrats secretly support Trump to "save Hong Kong"? Tian Beijun denounces naivety: wrong expectations

2020-11-02T23:14:33.517Z


Voting is about to be completed in the US general election. It is expected that the result will be known as soon as Hong Kong time tomorrow (November 4). This U.S. election has been described by some politicians as the most far-reaching impact on Hong Kong in recent decades. Driven by the Sino-US trade friction and Hong Kong’s local political situation, Hong Kong is already in an important strategic position between China and the United States. Therefore, the political circles in Hong Kong are also very concerned about this election. "Hong Kong 01" reporters earlier contacted a large number of politicians to ask about their views on the US election. However, most of the current democratic legislators, other former legislators, and veterans were unwilling to express their views, and they were "trivial." . Some democrats privately pointed out that the democrats and the US political circles have relatively friendly ties, and they do not want to "make a wrong bet" on this issue. Yuan Miming, the former chairman of the People’s Forces, further pointed out that in fact, many Asians who support democracy and freedom, including Hong Kong democrats and protesters, secretly believe that Trump’s election is good for Hong Kong because he is tougher on China. However, Tian Beijun, Honorary Chairman of the Liberal Party, said that he expects Americans to promote democracy for Hong Kong as "naive" because the United States will not really help Hong Kong, and even if the United States has such a plan, after intervening in a local situation with reference to the United States' past "achievements", It often leads to greater chaos. "The United States has nothing to do with it." Therefore, the hope that Trump's election will help Hong Kong is a false expectation.


Political situation

Written by: Lin Jian

2020-11-03 07:00

Last update date: 2020-11-03 07:00

Voting is about to be completed in the US general election. It is expected that the result will be known as soon as Hong Kong time tomorrow (November 4).

This U.S. election has been described by some politicians as the most far-reaching impact on Hong Kong in recent decades. Driven by the Sino-US trade friction and Hong Kong’s local political situation, Hong Kong is already in an important strategic position between China and the United States. Therefore, the political circles in Hong Kong are also very concerned about this election.

"Hong Kong 01" reporters earlier contacted a large number of politicians to ask about their views on the US election. However, most of the current democratic legislators, other former legislators, and veterans were unwilling to express their views, and they were "trivial." .

Some democrats privately pointed out that the democrats and the US political circles have relatively friendly ties, and they do not want to "make a wrong bet" on this issue.

Yuan Miming, the former chairman of the People’s Forces, further pointed out that in fact, many Asians who support democracy and freedom, including Hong Kong democrats and protesters, secretly believe that Trump’s election is good for Hong Kong because he is tougher on China.

However, Tian Beijun, Honorary Chairman of the Liberal Party, said that he expects Americans to promote democracy for Hong Kong as "naive" because the United States will not really help Hong Kong, and even if the United States has such a plan, after intervening in a local situation with reference to the United States' past "achievements", It often leads to greater chaos. "The United States has nothing to do with it." Therefore, the hope that Trump's election will help Hong Kong is a false expectation.

▼Hong Kong politicians watch the US election▼

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Extended reading: Part 1

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An important embarrassment outside the national security law

During the reporter's inquiry about the opinions of the US general election, more than half of the current democratic legislators expressed no interest in expressing their views.

Democrats outside the parliament, including veterans of various political parties, mostly refused to express their opinions.

Among the few congressmen who are willing to discuss, Lin Zhuoting, the Democratic Party, also pointed out that he has no preference, only that relatively speaking, Trump may be more decisive and tougher on China; Ye Jianyuan in the education sector did not state his position, only mentioning American voters. Pay attention to education policy, and quoted that more than half of the respondents in the local survey were dissatisfied with Trump's education policy.

In contrast, many members of the establishment are willing to express their support for one of them, including those from the two major parties, the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong and the Federation of Trade Unions. The ratio between the two parties is quite strong.

After the turmoil of the amendments broke out last year, the protesters formed an "international line", advocating to lobby European and American countries to be tough on China, abolish Hong Kong's special treatment, and pay attention to the human rights situation in Hong Kong.

However, after the "Hong Kong National Security Law" came into effect, "collusion with foreign or foreign forces" was classified as a criminal act. Specific acts include directly or indirectly helping foreign countries "impose sanctions, blockades, or take other hostile actions against the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region or the People's Republic of China." , "Seriously obstruct the formulation and implementation of laws and policies by the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government or the Central People's Government and may cause serious consequences," etc. Therefore, the international line may touch the "red line."

In the end, is the democratic party's "three-quarters" of the US election related to the national security law?

More than one pro-democracy person who did not want to reveal his identity told reporters that the national security law is certainly one of the considerations, but it is not the most important. The more realistic problem is that no matter which party you support, you will always gain or lose the other party. "Wrong bet" on this issue.

Moreover, the local democrats have traditionally had a good relationship with the U.S. Democrats, and the Democratic Speaker of the House of Representatives, Pelosi, is also very concerned about the situation in Hong Kong.

Therefore, even if many democrats understand that Trump's China policy may be tougher and has no bottom line, it is not convenient to speak out publicly.

Yuan Miming posted on social networks, expressly supporting Trump's re-election.

(Screenshot of Yuan Miming fb)

Yuan Miming: It is necessary to let Americans know what Hong Kong people think

Yuan Miming is one of the few democrats who are willing to publicly support a certain candidate.

She posted on the social network last Monday (26th) evening that many Asians, including Taiwan, Vietnam, Hong Kong and other places, hope that Trump will be re-elected because "many Hong Kong protesters agree that Trump's Pompeo (Secretary of State Pompeo)'s hard-line approach to China" and said that "only a hard-line policy towards China will save Hong Kong first." She called the Democratic candidate Biden "China Joe" and cannot be trusted.

Yuan Miming also estimated that more than half of the Hong Kong protesters, especially the younger generation, hold similar ideas.

Yuan Miming further explained when he was inquired by reporters that most of the older generation of pan-democratic leaders are more friendly to the U.S. Democratic Party and are unwilling to offend each other.

However, she believes that it is necessary to let the US political circles know the opinions of Hong Kong people, because former US President Barack Obama has not spoken publicly for Hong Kong during his eight years in office. He has also adopted a friendly attitude towards China and is afraid to deal with China in the WTO. Tough, this dovish style has been proven to be infeasible. As Obama’s deputy, Biden can hardly have high hopes; while WeChat and TikTok suspect that it will affect the national security of the United States, and believe that only Trump dares to try to disable it.

Therefore, Yuan Miming believes that Trump's re-election is obviously more beneficial to counterbalance China and protect Hong Kong.

Tian Beijun: Don’t fantasize about “great chaos and great governance” after the US intervened, Hong Kong was even worse

However, Tian Beijun mentioned in an interview with "Hong Kong 01" that some people think that the United States' intervention in the situation in Hong Kong is really good for Hong Kong, and the idea is "naive and naive."

He believes that the biggest effect of the US intervention in Hong Kong in the past year or so has been to exchange a piece of the "Hong Kong National Security Act": "Relying on the United States to fight for democracy will save you money."

He also pointed out that even assuming that the United States has the ability to bring democratic universal suffrage to Hong Kong, it will not be "all day long." If the original conflicts between different interest sectors are not properly handled, the democratic political system will not be stable and the situation will get worse at any time. , And the countries that the United States has intervened in the past, especially in the Middle East, cannot bring peace.

"Look at Iraq and Libya. The original tyranny is many times more serious than what they (democrats) describe in Hong Kong? The United States helped these countries overthrow the dictator, but the situation is not worse?"

Therefore, Tian Beijun believes that Hong Kong people should be more rational and support a person who can bring peace to the world to be elected as president of the United States. Don’t imagine “the world’s chaos reaches the world’s rule”. Instead, they should continue to play the role of an international city within China. The unique role of the Greater Bay Area has made greater contributions to China's development.

As for many people in the establishment that "the United States is soliciting speculation" to allow Trump to continue his re-election to mess up his internal affairs and have no time to deal with China. Tian Beijun believes that this is a more "black-hearted" idea, and it is not accurate. The logic should be reversed: just because of the chaotic internal affairs, the United States will have more motivation to create a "foreign enemy" to deal with and divert the attention of the domestic people.

He said that among the establishment, there may be many people who comment on Hong Kong affairs better than him, but in terms of international perspective, he is broader than most people in the DAB and the Federation of Trade Unions, and believes that his research and judgment on the US election is more accurate.

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Source: hk1

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