Since the start of the thrilling American election campaign, the vast majority of pollsters have been adamant, giving Joe Biden overwhelming chances to win, a premise that has consequently dominated all media coverage of the 2020 election. In his latest predictions, famous pollster Nate Silver of the FiveThirtyEight site, who boasts of having developed a very sophisticated forecasting model, gives Donald Trump only 11% chance of winning, compared to Joe Biden's 89%.
Even less, therefore, than those he granted to the billionaire (29%) in the home stretch of his battle against Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Like most of the big institutes, his expertly modeled polls announce the former vice-president of Obama the big winner at the national level, by nine points in advance.
They also see him winning the electoral college, betting that he will take back from Trump several of the 10 "pivot" states where the outcome of the election will be decided.
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