So shortly before the 2020 US election, the polls continue to look bad for Donald Trump.
But will he accept a possible election defeat?
What could happen.
Until recently,
US President Donald Trump spread
wild theories about election manipulation through postal voting.
A narrow preliminary election result on
November 3rd
could induce Trump to see himself as a winner instead of a loser.
The time until the president is sworn in in January could turn into a mudfight and unrest in the
United States
.
Washington, DC
-
Donald Trump's
days
as U.S. President may be numbered anytime soon.
In the election polls, things look bad for the Republican.
After the election on November 3, he may
continue to lead the government and stay in the White House until
his challenger
Joe Biden
(Democrats) is
sworn
in - but if he loses the US election, it would be over on January 20 (for now) for him.
But discussions have been
going on
for weeks as to whether Trump
would even recognize
an
election defeat
and whether there will be a
peaceful transfer of power
.
Considerations that appear unworthy of a state like the USA.
But it's not the first choice where this question comes up.
As early as 2016, Donald Trump
refused to say
in a TV duel with his then challenger
Hillary Clinton
(Democrats) that he would accept a possible election defeat.
Not much has changed in this attitude.
In addition: Donald Trump expects an
election result
on November 3rd.
He emphasizes this during appearances, he writes on Twitter.
Otherwise “chaos” could break out, he warned his followers last in Pennsylvania.
The Election should end on November 3rd., Not weeks later!
- Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 30, 2020
An early result, however, seems unlikely.
Due to the
corona pandemic,
there are significantly more postal voters in this US election, so that experts do not necessarily expect a result in the early morning hours of German time as in the previous elections.
US election 2020: How tight will the (preliminary) result be on election evening?
There are two possible
scenarios
around the election result
for election evening
if Donald Trump does not emerge as the winner.
Either he loses very close or he loses by a long way.
The first option is arguably the more problematic.
When it comes to few votes, Republicans and Doanld Trump could
bring up
stories of
irregularities
.
The
postal vote
has been a thorn in the side of the president for a long time.
His conspiracy theories lead to statements from him like: "In my opinion this is the only way we can lose:
massive election fraud
."
These
theories of fraud
, for which he has not yet provided any conclusive evidence, he could refer to in the event of a narrow election result when he is behind.
It can be assumed that he will use his Twitter account, which now has over 87 million followers (as of November 1st),
to express
his
anger
.
The longer the count, the more likely Trump is to smell fraud and infect his supporters, some of whom are armed.
In
an interview with
Zeit
, experts like law professor Lawrence Douglas
do not want to completely rule out
unrest
and violence after the election
.
As
AFP
reports,
arms sales
in the USA rose significantly before the presidential election - fueled both by the corona pandemic and by anti-racism protests in the country, some of which were accompanied by violence.
In Washington DC, shops have barricaded their windows and doors because they
fear
vandalism
on election night.
The police are already preparing for riots.
Washington prepares itself - barricaded itself would be more correct.
They fear in the city: After a few protests this year, things could get restless on election night or afterwards.
#USElection #Washington #ElectionDay @ntvde_Ppolitik @RTLde pic.twitter.com/dleSND7izK
- Christopher Wittich (@CWittich) October 30, 2020
But it would also be possible that Trump is
ahead
after the votes from the
polling stations have been
counted and proclaims himself the winner early on.
According to surveys, many Democratic voters in particular wanted to
use
postal voting
, which is why the result could turn again after these votes are counted.
Will Trump then take back his victory message?
2020 US election: if Donald Trump loses, what will he do until Joe Biden is sworn in?
So if the result is tight and Donald Trump is behind,
challenges to
the
counting
of votes or the election process cannot be ruled out if one takes into account his previous statements.
However, that does not mean that all votes nationwide will be counted again immediately.
Courts
want to see reasonable doubts, especially since every US state has its own right to vote.
The
Electoral College
, the state electorate, is scheduled to make its decision on December 14, 2020.
Until then, there should be decisions.
Also, the
Congress
could scenario nightmare play a role in a possible to the election.
And another important question arises in another scenario: Should Trump lose and admit this, what political options will he still have until Joe Biden is sworn in on January 20, 2021?
This time is called the
“lame duck phase”
, which means the transition
phase
between two presidents.
Lame duck because the power of the executives is dwindling in the meantime, ostensibly about the orderly handover.
But the president would then have nothing more to lose that could make the status dangerous.
It is the time for less popular but potentially momentous decisions.
In
the last hours of his term in office
,
Barack Obama
(Democrats) released four prisoners from the Guantánamo prison camp and banned oil drilling in parts of the Arctic.
2020 US election: what does Donald Trump do when he's no longer in the White House?
At some point, January 20, 2021 will inevitably come when, according to the constitution, the president must be sworn in at noon.
If Trump loses the US election, his
term of office will end
.
There is already speculation about whether Donald Trump will
actually leave
the
White House
.
The
Secret Service
, its current bodyguard, may have to carry
him
out of the White House.
Will Donald Trump then continue to be politically active as President without much previous political experience?
Will he re-enter the
real estate
business and give the world new
Trump towers
?
All of this is speculation, because an election defeat is not really an option for Trump.
At one point, however, during the Georgia election campaign, he said what could happen if he lost to “the worst candidate in political history”: “Can you imagine me losing?
What am I going to do? ”However, his answer is not clear either:“ I will not feel so good.
Maybe I have to
leave
the
country
.
I dont know."