Elections in the US: Cuba, in suspense at the possibility of a change or four more years of hostility

11/03/2020 19:40

• Clarín.com

• World

Updated 11/03/2020 19:40

170 kilometers from the last islet of Florida, an entire country holds its breath while waiting for the result of the presidential elections in the United States: Cuba also has a lot at stake in these elections and its future will not be the same if Democrat Joe Biden wins or if Republican Donald Trump gets a second term.

The island, whose battered economy was already dragging problems due to the crisis of its ally Venezuela, was formed in the last two years

: the bright months of the "thaw" of Barack Obama were extinguished by the administration of Donald Trump with blow of sanctions.

The coronavirus pandemic did the rest, although at this time Washington's hostility did not subside either.

The Cuba at the end of 2016 was abuzz with projects and began to change timidly in the heat of the tourist "boom" that caused the rapprochement with the US. The Cuba at the end of 2020 began to overcome the health crisis, but

and the reinforcement of the embargo, from which not even remittances have escaped, has pushed the country's finances to the limit.

According to estimates by the Cuban government,

due to the US financial embargo.

The building of the United States embassy in Havana.

Relationships are kept to a minimum.

Photo: EFE

Biden, the "insider" candidate

Without the need for polls, Biden is the obvious candidate for Cubans "inside", aware that his victory could mean the difference between raising his head financially or facing

The Democratic candidate advanced in his campaign that he will redirect the bilateral relationship and reverse the sanctions of the last four years, which have an enormous impact on the tourism industry and the travel of Americans to the island.

Among them, the vetoes of cruise ships and state hotels, the ban on flying to Cuban airports except Havana, and new restrictions on travel by Americans to the neighboring country.

"Biden has insisted that he would resume the policy promoted by Obama of approaching the Cuban government on matters of mutual interest, restoring the right to travel to Cuba and reversing the Trump sanctions that have damaged Cubans and also their ties with their Cuban American families. "recalls Professor William LeoGrande, a professor at the American University of Washington.

For former Cuban diplomat Carlos Alzugaray, this turn is "what is in the best interest of the more general North American interests, which include cooperation on security issues and achieving a certain level of influence in Cuba, as Spain may have, for example, but in the well understood that the decisions made by Cubans cannot be forced, which, in any case, are in processes of change. "

Biden's approach "is much more intelligent and strategic because it is not all or nothing, but rather seeking ways to achieve various objectives. Although this policy has its risks, that influence is used to impose changes that Cubans do not. we would accept otherwise, I welcome it and I believe that Cuba must accept the challenge, "he reflects.

The coronavirus pandemic and, above all, the US sanctions, hit the Cuban economy.

Photo: EFE

Meanwhile, Cuban-American professor Arturo López-Levy, from Holy Names University (California), warns that "the return to Obama's policy does not imply returning to the normalization roadmap that was the presidential order of October 2016 on the relationship with Cuba ".

Or what is the same: Biden would return to the fall of 2016 but without going any further, for now.

Therefore, the Democrat has avoided committing to major changes, and narrowed down his plans to dismantle the "irrational turn of hostility," "President Trump's sanctions, abuses, and excesses against Cuban-American travel, travel licenses, and contacts town to town, "says López-Levy.

"That is enough, but a coherent policy of détente towards Cuba, the government and society, empowering vectors of change inserted in Cuban politics by détente requires more," including the dismantling of all commercial and financial sanctions.

The island, priority for Washington?

Another question is what priority Biden will give, if he wins, to this whole issue, taking into account the amount and magnitude of Trump's policies that the Democrat wants to reverse across the board.

For LeoGrande, there are two reasons that may force a future Biden Administration to make decisions about Cuba earlier than expected: the crisis in Venezuela, "which cannot be resolved without Cuban cooperation," and the

.

The former president of the United States, Barack Obama, visited the then president of Cuba.

Raúl Castro, in March 2016, in a historic thaw.

Photo: DPA

López-Levy also sees that multilateral forum to which Cuba returned in 2015 after the thaw as key.

"Whichever administration is in charge of organizing it, the Cuba issue is an activated clock bomb," he says.

"Both governments have a lot to lose by mishandling a thorny participation. It is not convenient for Cuba to leave the summits, and the United States in competition with other great powers, it is not convenient for a summit limited to reiterations". The experiences that the island can share in terms of international cooperation are added after its good handling of the health crisis.

Alzugaray, for his part, indicates that "certain steps in policy towards Cuba can be easy and inexpensive," such as resuming the

that were created after the diplomatic reestablishment.

"The Cuban government has said that it is willing to resume all those dialogues where they left off," says the former ambassador.

It is also urgent, in his opinion, "to restore normal ties" between Cubans on both shores, a relationship "that the Trump Administration has callously beaten."

And in any case, "Biden would have four years to advance his policies," he adds.

Trump: more of the same

Faced with the almost certain changes that a Democratic victory would provoke, the three analysts agree that a second Trump term would mean

in search of, in the words of Alzugaray, "a change of regime but with maximum damage, with fury ".

All of them rule out that, without the pressure of reelection and without having to woo Florida's anti-Castro electorate, Trump could tone down with Havana.

"To think that it could change its policy is illusory because those sanctions are intrinsic to its international actions," says Alzugaray.

In the same vein, LeoGrande considers that there is "no reason" to expect changes and recalls that Trump delegated policy towards Cuba to Cuban-American senator Marco Rubio and the hard-line Republicans of Florida, who would oppose any relaxation on the part of Washington.

"Furthermore, the harshness of the sanctions prevents Trump's (business) competitors from taking advantage of the Cuban market," the expert added.

López-Levy agrees that the influence of Rubio may block any intention of the Republican leader to improve relations with Cuba, although he remembers that with Trump everything is uncertain because "he looks at the political from the personal, with a transactional approach, without guarantees that go to stay in any position. "

By Lorena Cantó, EFE agency 

CB

Look also

Elections in the United States 2020: what happens if Joe Biden wins?

Elections in the United States: what happens if Donald Trump wins