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From the nuclear project to further peace agreements: this is how the identity of the US president will affect the Middle East - Walla! news

2020-11-03T20:11:46.131Z


States are preparing for the announcement of the winner, and whether Trump or Biden is elected, the region will be in a state of disarray. Iran is worried about the economy and the nuclear project, Syria is waiting to see if there will be a change in dynamics in the Middle East, and the Palestinian Authority hopes their "biggest nightmare" will end


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From the nuclear project to further peace agreements: this is how the identity of the US president will affect the Middle East

States are preparing for the announcement of the winner, and whether Trump or Biden is elected, the region will be in a state of disarray.

Iran is worried about the economy and the nuclear project, Syria is waiting to see if there will be a change in dynamics in the Middle East, and the Palestinian Authority hopes their "biggest nightmare" will end

Tags

  • Elections

  • United States

  • Iran

  • Syria

  • Lebanon

  • Gaza Strip

  • Hamas

  • the Palestinian Authority

  • Donald Trump

  • Joe Biden

Amir Bohbot

Tuesday, 03 November 2020, 19:55

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In the video: US citizens vote in presidential election with the opening of the polls (Photo: Reuters)

The Middle East is preparing for the results of the US presidential election, and the announcement of the winning candidate - Donald Trump or Joe Biden.

The identity of the president-elect has a major impact on the region, and countries in uncertainty face dilemmas and challenges that arise, among other things, following the normalization of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan.



The Iranians are worried about their economic situation and the nuclear project, and Syria is waiting to see if there will be a change in regional dynamics.

In the Gaza Strip, there are fears that Israel will receive a boost for unilateral measures, and the Palestinian Authority - where Trump is defined as "the biggest nightmare" - hopes to change policy.

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Identifying the president-elect will have a major impact on the Middle East.

Trump and Biden (Photo: Reuters)

Iran

Iran is definitely waiting for the election results in the United States.

The defense establishment is divided over whether the regime in Tehran prefers Biden as president over Trump.

Biden may wait some time after the election to decide on the steps that are comfortable in his view of the United States, when the chances of returning to the nuclear deal that Trump revoked are high.

However, Iran may prefer that the incumbent president be re-elected, because there is a very high chance that he will open a channel for negotiations for them.



At the same time, the ayatollahs' regime fears that refusing Trump's policies will lead them to a direct military clash, and only then to a process of negotiation and agreement.

Because he is perceived by them as unpredictable, creative and brave - as reflected in Qassem Suleimani's targeted assassination - they shy away from the thought that Trump will be re-elected or that they will have to fight him directly.



In line with Suleimani's strategy, Iran is basing its forces in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen and elsewhere, in a way that also threatens the State of Israel.

These threats were even part of the IDF's General Staff exercise last week - "lethal arrow".

Iran launches new missile in August (Photo: Reuters)

The US election is a dramatic event for the Iranians, who are very worried about the nuclear project and their faltering economy.

According to security sources in Israel, they will not be able to survive any more economic sanctions packages from the Americans.



The normalization of relations between Israel and the various Arab countries is also a new process that worries the Iranians, and not only in terms of the Palestinians who have been pushed aside.

This means that the division into countries is already according to geographical interests or of Shiite and Sunni streams, but a division based on economic interests, but no less anti-Iranian.

It is estimated by the defense establishment that this is eroding Iran's power in the Middle East and is causing great concern among the ayatollahs regime and may accelerate other processes such as agreements with the West or vice versa - deteriorating security and attacks by emissaries or military operations directly.



In Israel, it is estimated that the course of action in Tehran will be accepted only after the decision in the United States elections.

The defense establishment has made it clear several times recently that Israel must be closely involved and influence all regional negotiations, certainly with Iran.

Lebanon

Hezbollah is running an international pressure cooker, while the economic and political situation of the organization in particular and Lebanon in general is extremely difficult.

This, among other things following the explosion in the port of Beirut, the conviction of a senior member of the organization in the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri by the court in The Hague and the sanctions from the United States.



Security sources estimate that since Suleimani's assassination by the United States, Hassan Nasrallah, the organization's secretary general, has felt much more comfortable operating in the area and is less committed to the Iranian agenda. Fear.While Quds Force's successor, Ismail Kahani, is far from stepping into his shoes.

Awaiting developments in US elections. Assad (Photo: Reuters)

Syria

Syrian President Bashar Assad is busy stabilizing the country's security and economy.

He is required to fight terrorism, but to retaliate against the future of the region, Damascus and Moscow are awaiting developments in the US election campaign and the announcement of the presidential candidate.

They are waiting to see if it will be Trump again, or rather Biden who will bring with him a different perception of the Middle East in a way that will affect regional dynamics.

Judea and Samaria

Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas continues to hold his cards close to his chest and did not reveal his intentions for the elections in the United States. Abbas is waiting to see who will be selected to see if it changes policy and turning to other channels.



Currently defined Trump biggest nightmare "of authority The Palestinian Authority, especially after the normalization of relations and peace agreements between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan.

Holds the cards close to the chest.

Abu Mazen (Photo: Reuters)

Gaza Strip

The US election raises fears that Trump's second term will give Israel the upper hand to take far-reaching and even unilateral action against the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.



Because of this, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar takes a very clear approach, putting first and foremost the interest of the Gaza Strip and only then the desires of the West Bank.

Hence, Hamas will not necessarily be in a hurry to take terrorist action against the background of political events that do not directly affect the Gaza Strip.

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Source: walla

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