Projections and forecasts for the US election 2020: Latest figures for the duel Trump against Biden

Projections and forecasts for the 2020 US election live from election night: Who will be the next president?

Will Donald Trump be ousted by Joe Biden?

• Forecasts and projections for the

  2020 US presidential election

  * are available early on election night.

• Joe Biden

  and

  Donald Trump

  know beforehand which states to win.

• The latest numbers for counting votes are available here in the live ticker.

Update from November 4, 0.01 a.m.: It is

still 0-0 according to the electorate, but concrete figures can now be determined, because the polling stations are now closed in the first states.

Update from November 3, 11:25 p.m.:

From midnight, the preliminary forecasts for the US election can become more specific projections.

Then the first two states close their polling stations.

With the count there will be the first concrete figures for the start of the hot phase of election night.

We'll keep you up to date on who the projections currently see up front.

Voter turnout forecast for the 2020 US election

Update from November 3, 8:10 p.m.:

Record in the 2020 US election:

-

people who voted before the actual election day - were registered this year.

This corresponds to more than 73 percent of the total votes cast in 2016, according to the

.

Voter turnout was particularly high in a number of US states in the south and west.

The majority of early voters are believed to support Joe Biden.

Whether this is actually the case will be shown in a few hours when the first projections and forecasts are made.

US election forecast sees a surprising majority in one state

Update from November 3, 5:12 p.m.:

In the US state of Iowa * there could be a surprise in the US election.

After polls showed that both presidential candidates were tied,

is now said to have moved away

.

The incumbent US President should receive 48 percent of the vote, challenger Biden only 41 percent.

This is the result of a survey by the local newspaper Des Moines Register and the polling institute The Selzer.

Iowa will be one of the so-called swing states * in the 2020 US election.

Update from November 3, 1:15 p.m.:

Even if it will take a while until the first concrete

are available, there is still a small result.

The votes have already been counted

in the two villages of

and

,

*.

That wasn't a problem after five votes were counted in Dixville Notch and 21 in Millsfield.

The votes were cast shortly after midnight local time

At Dixville Notch, Democrat Joe Biden was all the votes.

At Millsfield, Trump scored 16 votes and Biden five.

40 percent of US citizens eligible to vote have already cast their votes, according to the

That corresponds to about

 votes.

Many citizens chose the postal voting route.

Projections and forecasts for the US election 2020: Latest figures for the duel Trump against Biden

First report from November 3rd:

Munich / Washington, DC - Who will be the next

the United States of America?

We provide

forecasts and projections for the

as a news ticker here.

Voter surveys and initial counts provide the first clues as to the outcome of the election early on.

US election 2020: forecasts and projections rise and fall with the behavior of the candidates

The

in the

always been

different from that in Germany.

The candidates for the office of

spare no expense and effort to impress their voters.

Millions of dollars flow into various election campaign projects every four years.

Political experts, the media and election campaigners made

for the 2020 US election campaign

early

on.

The development of such forecasts is steadily advancing: With every public appearance, with every post on social media and with every supporter or opponent, the chances of the

rise and fall

. * Concrete projections for the 2020 US election, i.e. real figures from the voting behavior of Voters, but only after the first polling stations have closed.

Forecasts become extrapolations - ever more precise figures on the night of the US election

Polls on

the

are performed or shared by almost any medium.

They are something different from the projections and forecasts on election evening.

The forecasts for the US election, which are specially prepared on election day, are based on voter surveys at polling stations.

You try to get the most accurate picture possible.

The

result from the fact that the real numbers of counted polling stations are included in this forecast.

The projections will therefore become more and more precise as the election evening progresses.

Many Americans have been criticizing the polls in the run-up to the election, at least since Donald Trump's victory in 2016.

One user wrote on Twitter: “Anyone believe the

for the

?

I roll my eyes every time I hear Biden win.

Have we learned nothing? "

In 2016, too, the signs were much better for Hillary Clinton than for Donald Trump - the latter won anyway.

This is partly due to the

in the

.

The Americans who are eligible to vote do not elect the

himself, but so-called voters.

Does anyone believe the # USElection2020 polls?

I roll my eyes each time I hear Biden is winning.

Haven't we learn anything?

Despite all his shameful actions and stupidity, Trump has a chance.

And that's all he needs.

#USA #USElection #VPDebate # Vote2020 pic.twitter.com/zPTWbAgPZN

- Miguel Candela (@miguelcandela_) October 21, 2020

Live from election night: forecasts and projections for the 2020 US election

These electors will only meet in December and then officially elect the

. * Why is the focus then on November 03, 2020, one might ask.

Why are there the forecasts and

on the evening of the US election

?

A little explanation: To become

, a candidate must get 270 votes out of 538 voters.

The number of these votes is already

visible

after the

in November 2020, so it is clear who the

vote for president in a final, formal act.

The main aim of the forecasts and projections on November 3rd is therefore to determine the number of electors for the two candidates.

However, in many states, electors are not legally required to obey voters' votes.

The projections can therefore reflect the will of the voters at an early stage - theoretically, however, there is still some room for surprises later.

List of rubric lists: © Montage Merkur.de: Bernd von Jutrczenka, Andreas Gebert and Maren Hennemuth (via dpa / picture alliance)