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Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán: Less money coming from Brussels soon?
Photo: JOHANNA GERON / POOL / EPA-EFE / Shutterstock
For months they haggled, threatened, and pugned in Brussels.
Now the European Parliament, the EU Commission and the Council of Member States are about to reach an agreement.
On Thursday morning, negotiators from all three institutions agree that an agreement will be reached on the so-called rule of law mechanism.
For the first time, the EU would have a reasonably sharp weapon against governments that are systematically dismantling democracy and the rule of law in their countries.
It is true that Hungary and Poland were able to water down the mechanism that would probably target them above all.
But they couldn't prevent it - at least so far.
The latter would only be possible in one way, should an agreement be reached on Thursday: by the two states by the 1.1 trillion euros for the next seven-year budget of the EU and the related corona reconstruction package of another 750 billion euros Torpedo the euro.
It would be a disaster for everyone involved.
Classic Brussels compromise
The compromise that is now to be reached would be dangerous for Poland, Hungary and other constitutional offenders.
This is mainly due to the
trigger mechanism
.
The EU Commission should therefore identify violations of the rule of law and propose sanctions to the Council of Member States.
The council should then decide within just one month - in exceptional cases within three months - by a qualified majority whether funds will actually be cut.
Such a majority is achieved when 15 out of 27 EU member states with at least 65 percent of the EU population are in favor.
It's a classic Brussels compromise.
The Commission had initially proposed that sanctions come into force practically automatically, unless a qualified majority of the member states oppose it.
The EU Parliament had also vehemently demanded this.
Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, on the other hand, wanted a veto right for every EU country.
The middle ground now in prospect would mean that Hungary and Poland could no longer prevent the sanctions on their own, not even together with Slovakia and the Czech Republic, the traditional allies of the Viségrad group.
Still, insiders think it is no easy task to get a qualified majority to withdraw money.
It is said that such a step could possibly also be perceived by states outside of the Viségrad Group as a threatening precedent.
On the other hand, Parliament successfully pushed through that the mechanism should have a
preventive character
.
It should not only take effect when deficits in the rule of law have already led to the misuse of EU funds, but rather when such a risk exists.
In addition, the risks should also be specifically named, including the threat to the independence of the judiciary.
Hungary, in turn, has included an
"emergency brake"
in the compromise, which is also derided in Brussels as the "Orbán Loop": a country can request a new debate in the Council of Heads of State and Government before sanctions come into force.
However, this should only postpone the sentence for a maximum of two months, but not prevent it.
Greens and liberals give up resistance
An agreement had just failed at the end of last week due to opposition from the Greens and Liberals.
But they have now given up their resistance.
"The mechanism is not optimal", says the FDP MEP Moritz Körner, who represents the liberal "Renew Europe" group in the negotiations.
"But at least we now have a mechanism that has a good chance of actually being used in the event of blatant violations."
Greens negotiator Daniel Freund expressed himself in a similar way: "It is not the mechanism we wanted, but nothing more could be gotten out of it."
Now it is important that the regulation is used soon.
"Because the rule of law in the EU," said Freund, "is in a serious crisis."
The risk of a scandal has not yet been eliminated, even if an agreement is reached on Thursday as planned.
Because Hungary and Poland are still strictly against the rule of law mechanism, as can be heard from negotiating circles.
For good reason: of all people, they benefit the most from EU funds.
In this case, the two countries can be overruled in the Council of Member States.
However, the mechanism is only part of the entire seven-year budget; other parts must be decided unanimously by the states.
And Orbán has already openly threatened his veto.
Germany's EU ambassador Michael Clauss, who is leading the negotiations for the member states because of the current German EU Council Presidency, and the parliament apparently want to let it depend.
Your calculation: Poland and Hungary would hardly dare to block the entire budget and the Corona package.
Because that would not only bring them the wrath of crisis countries like Italy or Spain.
Both countries are now themselves - unlike the first wave in spring - badly hit by the corona crisis.
However, it is by no means certain whether the strategy will work.
A decision of this magnitude, says a Brussels diplomat, is taken by Orbán personally.
And how that ends, nobody knows.
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