Swing states of the US election: definition of the term - here everything is decided for Trump and Biden

Swing states or battleground states are those US states that do not vote traditionally democratic or republican.

The election campaign is focused on these - and ultimately they are decisive in determining the outcome of a US election.

Which states are considered swing states and how important is their voting decision?

• Until the end, the voting decision in the

  swing states is

  relatively open.

• Both

  US

  presidential candidates

  expect their chances of victory there.

• The “undecided” US states are different in every election - some are traditionally changing, others surprising.

Washington, DC - The outcome of a US election is predictable in many states, as these can be clearly divided into “Red States” with a Republican majority and “Blue States” with a Democratic majority.

And then there are the

.

The Swing States: Definition and Importance to the US Election

The Americans do not directly vote for a president.

The electors do that.

Their number varies greatly in the various states, depending on the population density.

A total of 538 electors make up the Electoral College, the electoral body.

In almost all states, "The winner takes it all" applies: The candidate with the most votes in a state wins all electors - and they must vote for the winner.

Exceptions are Maine (four electors) and Nebraska (five electors).

Only two are awarded according to the “winner” principle, the rest are elected by a relative majority vote in the election of the House of Representatives.

The

defined by their relative unpredictability.

Sometimes they tend to one side, sometimes to the other.

That makes them the focus of the US election campaign: It is important for both candidates to win their votes.

For an election victory, a US presidential candidate must have at least 270 of the 538 electors behind him.

The swing states have very different numbers of electors - some of them could decide the election based on a high number.

Swing States: What about the colors blue, red and purple on the map of the USA?

The US states are referred to as red and blue states depending on their political majorities.

Red states are likely to form a majority for the Republican President in the US election, and for

in 2020

.

In the blue states, the Democrats rule with the 2020 presidential candidate

.

The US west coast is dominated by “blue”, as is the northeast.

In the southern states, in the north, the so-called Mountain States along the Rocky Mountains and in the Midwest, the “Reds” have majorities.

The party colors can also be found on the graphical representations of the US

.

There are clear regional focuses here.

States that do not have a clear majority for a party - the

- are shown on the

with the color purple - a mixture of red and blue.

Swing States: What are traditional blue states in the US?

In many states, unlike in the

the results of the presidential elections are no surprise.

Traditionally, Democratic electors win in more urban states with larger proportions of ethnic minorities:

• California

• Oregon

• Washington

• Minnesota

• Wisconsin

• Michigan

• Illinois

• Hawaii

• Pennsylvania

• Rhode Island

• Vermont

• Maryland

• Massachusetts

• Connecticut

• new York

• New Jersey

Washington, DC has a special role: The capital district is not a state in its own right, but nevertheless determines a few electors, three in 2020.

Since 1992, the Democratic candidate has prevailed in every presidential election in the US capital.

Swing States: Traditional political majorities for the Republicans - the Red States

Strong red states in

history

are largely characterized by a high proportion of rural areas:

• Alaska

• Idaho

• Kansas

• Nebraska

• Oklahoma

• North & South Dakota

• Utah

• Wyoming

• Alabama

• Mississippi

• South carolina

• Texas

However, due to various factors such as a changing population structure, red states sometimes become

.

Swing States: Factors for switching votes

The red and blue states do not necessarily choose their traditional colors on the

the

in the elections

: A safe state can definitely become a

, depending on various conditions:

• the personality of the Senate candidate

• the presidential candidate

• local political and social realities

• Changes in the demographic structure

The parties also often adapt their Senate candidates to the prevailing political orientation.

The Democrats in Red States often put up very conservative candidates in order to have better chances, while the Republicans put up more moderate candidates.

The swing states of the 2016 election

The US election analysis portal FiveThirtyEight identified

twelve

in the 2016 US election, in which

lost to

:

• Colorado

• Florida

• Iowa

• Michigan

• Minnesota

• Nevada

• New Hampshire

• North Carolina

• Ohio

• Pennsylvania

• Virginia

• Wisconsin

With this, states like Minnesota and Wisconsin lost their democratic majority.

In Wisconsin, for example, Donald Trump won with a tiny minority of 0.77 percent of the vote - this state tipped the scales for the outcome of the 2016 US election.

Swing States: Examples of Their Significance

Other states are regularly on the list of

.

This includes Ohio with its mix of urban and rural areas.

"Whoever wins Ohio moves into the White House" - the saying has come true in the past US elections.

The last president to suffer defeat in Ohio was

.

Florida is also a traditionally “fluctuating” state - and with 29 electors after California and Texas, along with New York, has the most.

In the 2016 election year,

benefited

greatly from the successes in Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio - and won the election, although the rival candidate

won most of the polls in the swing states.

The example of the US election in 2000 shows how important Florida is. George W. Bush was so close to

in the "Sunshine State"

that it was necessary to recount the votes.

Ultimately, 537 votes and thus 29 electorates from Florida decided on Bush's presidency.

Swing States 2020

Old friends are back on the list of

2020.

But there are also surprises - especially one.

The New York Times presented the Swing States 2020 at the end of September 2020:

• Texas

• Michigan

• Minnesota

• Nebraska

• New Hampshire

• Pennsylvania

• Wisconsin

• Nevada

• Arizona

• Florida

• Iowa

• Ohio

• Georgia

• Maine

• North Carolina

Texas last voted Democratic in 1976.

In the election year 2020 that has apparently changed and the "Lone Star State" could again be won by the Democrats.

According to various US media outlets, the traditional Republican stronghold is one of the reasons for its growing multicultural population structure to be a swing candidate - and there are 38 electors who decide on the presidency.

Only the democratically oriented California has more, namely 55. Our article on the current survey figures shows you how the two candidates stand in the swing states this year.

Swing States: The Importance of Super Tuesday

In the US primary elections, the party's top candidate is determined.

There is no direct voting here either.

Rather, delegates with voting rights vote for the favored candidate.

The voters who have registered for the primaries decide on the delegates.

In many states, the primaries take place in early March of the election year.

As a rule, the electoral states of California and Texas are also included.

The day is referred to

as "Super Tuesday"

in the

.

In 2020 it took place on March 3rd.

The "Super Tuesday" is a trend barometer for all applicants - and not only the presidential candidate is then determined.

The party with the most votes also has a good chance of winning over the electorate in the election.

in Texas

on March 3, 2020

.

So the formerly republican state became the

.