According to his own statement, the historian Allan Lichtman ignores all election campaigns, TV duels and surveys.
He has his own method - and with it apparently success.
The US historian
Allan Lichtman
has developed his own forecasting system for
US presidential elections
*.
In the case of the
current candidates
*, he already decides
on a winner
before the
counting
*.
Why does this attract attention?
Lichtman is said to have
correctly
predicted
all US presidents since 1984
.
Washington -
"Can a squirrel really predict the winner?"
Asks the
Chicago Tribune
a day before the
2020 US presidential election *
, after surveys and coffee grounds are now apparently also being worked on with
animals
.
The historian
Allan Lichtman
no longer wonders anything.
He is certain:
Joe Biden
wins.
"I'm sticking to my final prediction: Trump will be the first incumbent not to be re-elected since 1992 and Joe Biden will be the next President of the United States," he tweeted on Sunday:
My final prediction based on the Keys to the White House stands unchanged.
I am still predicting that @realDonaldTrump becomes the first sitting president to lose reelection since 1992 and that Joe Biden will be the next president of the United States.https: //t.co/GRLhNaQE0p
- Allan Lichtman (@AllanLichtman) October 31, 2020
Why is Lichtman so confident?
According to the
AFP
news
agency
, he
has
correctly
forecast
all presidential elections
since 1984, including 2016
, using a
self-developed forecasting
method.
In his method, he focuses on indicators such as the economy, scandals or social unrest, in his system the
“13 keys to the White House”
, he said in an interview with
Bild
.
If it at
six or more
bad look these factors for a president who could with his
deselection
expected.
He tries to keep his
own political convictions
out of the forecast - and to come to terms with the fact that he can also make enemies: "When I correctly predicted Donald Trump's victory in 2016, that didn't make me very popular in the 90 percent democratic Washington DC, where I teach at the American University, ”says Lichtmann about the
picture
(Article behind the payment barrier).
US election victory oracle Lichtman wants to ignore "the advertising, the dirty tricks, the slogans"
Even if Lichtman has lost his reputation as an "oracle", he insists, according to the report, not
to look into the future
for anyone in matters of
love
- and also for anyone who plays
sports betting
and the like.
He wants to
stick
with his predictions in the field of the
US presidential election
, on which his
“secret”
is: “I ignore the polls and the experts.
I don't watch the daily events of the election campaigns - the speeches, the debates, the advertising, the donations, the dirty tricks, the slogans, ”said Lichtman.
Anyone who is
interested in
surveys
will find constantly updated graphics and forecasts for the US election here.
(frs)
* Merkur.de is part of the Ippen-Digital editorial network.