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US election: “Oracle” has been correct since 1984 - this time the man is predicting this victory

2020-11-03T07:45:21.190Z


According to his own statement, the historian Allan Lichtman ignores all election campaigns, TV duels and surveys. He has his own method - and with it apparently success.


According to his own statement, the historian Allan Lichtman ignores all election campaigns, TV duels and surveys.

He has his own method - and with it apparently success.

  • The US historian

    Allan Lichtman

    has developed his own forecasting system for

    US presidential elections

    *.

  • In the case of the

    current candidates

    *, he already decides

    on a winner

    before the

    counting

    *.

  • Why does this attract attention?

    Lichtman is said to have

    correctly

    predicted

    all US presidents since 1984

    .

Washington -

"Can a squirrel really predict the winner?"

Asks the

Chicago Tribune

a day before the

2020 US presidential election *

, after surveys and coffee grounds are now apparently also being worked on with

animals

.

The historian

Allan Lichtman

no longer wonders anything.

He is certain:

Joe Biden

wins. 

"I'm sticking to my final prediction: Trump will be the first incumbent not to be re-elected since 1992 and Joe Biden will be the next President of the United States," he tweeted on Sunday:

My final prediction based on the Keys to the White House stands unchanged.

I am still predicting that @realDonaldTrump becomes the first sitting president to lose reelection since 1992 and that Joe Biden will be the next president of the United States.https: //t.co/GRLhNaQE0p

- Allan Lichtman (@AllanLichtman) October 31, 2020

Why is Lichtman so confident?

According to the

AFP

news

agency

, he

has

correctly

forecast

all presidential elections

since 1984, including 2016

, using a

self-developed forecasting

method.

In his method, he focuses on indicators such as the economy, scandals or social unrest, in his system the

“13 keys to the White House”

, he said in an interview with

Bild

.

If it at

six or more

bad look these factors for a president who could with his

deselection

expected.

He tries to keep his

own political convictions

out of the forecast - and to come to terms with the fact that he can also make enemies: "When I correctly predicted Donald Trump's victory in 2016, that didn't make me very popular in the 90 percent democratic Washington DC, where I teach at the American University, ”says Lichtmann about the

picture

(Article behind the payment barrier).

US election victory oracle Lichtman wants to ignore "the advertising, the dirty tricks, the slogans"

Even if Lichtman has lost his reputation as an "oracle", he insists, according to the report, not

to look into the future

for anyone in matters of

love

- and also for anyone who plays

sports betting

and the like.

He wants to

stick

with his predictions in the field of the

US presidential election

, on which his

“secret”

is: “I ignore the polls and the experts.

I don't watch the daily events of the election campaigns - the speeches, the debates, the advertising, the donations, the dirty tricks, the slogans, ”said Lichtman.

Anyone who is

interested in

surveys

will find constantly updated graphics and forecasts for the US election here.

(frs)

* Merkur.de is part of the Ippen-Digital editorial network.

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2020-11-03

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