US election 2020: poll turnaround in important "swing state" - suddenly Trump is leading as clearly as in 2016

Joe Biden is still ahead in most polls on the US election.

But the turnaround for Donald Trump is still possible - an important swing state provides information on this.

• The

  US Democrats

  can, according to surveys a majority in the

  House of Representatives

  and in the

  Senate

  hope.

• The

  senators

  of incumbent

  Donald Trump's

  * party, however, are shaking in many states.

• In one state, the race and

  campaign

  * are particularly spectacular.

Update from November 3, 3:26 p.m .:

Surprise in

- one of the largest so-called "

": Suddenly, the incumbent

front of his challenger

.

In October, the two competitors were on par, writes the most important local newspaper from the

, the Des Moines Register.

But now there is a survey - carried out by the newspaper with the opinion research institute The Selzer - that should turn all expectations of the

on their head.

With 48% of all votes,

seven percentage points ahead of

, who would only get 41 percent of the vote.

Iowa, Des Moines Register / Selzer final poll in ...

2016: Trump +7

2016 Result: Trump +10

2020: Trump +7

- US Politics Polls (@USPoliticsPoll) October 31, 2020

But the

is pretty much alone with its clear result for Trump.

Other polls see Trump only 0.7 percentage points ahead.

Still others see the two candidates tied.

But if

poll

is correct, it could actually turn things around - and the

could be much tighter than previously assumed.

As in 2016, the turnaround could be in favor of Donald Trump.

Iowa is unlikely to be the "swing state" in which the election will be decided.

However, the result here could be similar to that in the other important states in the Midwest - such as Michigan or Wisconsin.

In addition, the survey should not necessarily be dismissed as an outlier: In 2016, the newspaper's survey also revealed a lead for Trump that others did not see.

Even then, according to the survey, Trump suddenly led by seven percent.

In the end, he even achieved a lead of ten percentage points.

Polls for the 2020 US election: Biden is ahead in enough swing states that it should be enough to win

Update from November 3, 11:22 a.m

.: While

and counts of the

already running, the latest

also see

candidate

in front of incumbent

in the majority of the 48 states

.

“The last polls before the election, published on Monday, give

Joe Biden a head start

in enough

* that could help him win,” analyzes the political magazine

.

The authors rely on the statistics

, on which several of the numerous, also local, surveys are compared.

The portal has now made its

.

"Biden is in a position to win the election," it says:

Our final presidential election forecast: https://t.co/MArwHF6FnT pic.twitter.com/nTXQY2h8FU

- FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) November 3, 2020

The US business broadcaster

summed up its own survey on Monday under the headline:

.

In Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, it counts between three and eight percentage points more - on average:

of those surveyed were for Biden,

for Trump.

You can find the

continuously updated

the 2020 US election here.

In addition, we will inform you on

about initial

as well as the status of the

.

When the final

the presidential election has been determined, you will find out here.

+

Polls see Joe Biden ahead of Donald Trump in the 2020 US election.

© Geoff Crimmins / The Moscow-Pullman Daily News / AP / dpa

Recent polls: The fight in a state is particularly spectacular - it is now getting very close for Trump

Original message from November 2

: Washington - What do the

say

, is the

many people

these days

before the

.

There are many surveys, so here is a selection of three larger ones: According to surveys by the

, challenger

currently more popular in many places than

: One day before the vote, even in four "particularly important"

*.

The British

following developments in

selected swing states and reported on November 1: Biden is

ahead of Trump

in

of them in the polls.

The survey by the US broadcaster

, which focuses on six selected swing states,

points in a similar direction

.

Accordingly, Biden was ahead in four of them on November 2 (Arizona, Florida, Georgia and North Carolina) and tied with Trump in Iowa and Ohio.

One of the swing states that are neither clearly republican nor democratic is

, which has 20

* - with most in the whole of the USA.

In the

, for a candidate, the number of electors it holds are more important than the votes.

The US statistics and data journalism website

currently describes Pennsylvania as

could make the difference in the presidential election.

Why Pennsylvania's vote count could change after election night -> https://t.co/E71k1rVcZb

- FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) October 31, 2020

US President Donald Trump

* had recently raised fears that he could declare himself the winner before the election is actually decided.

The point of such a maneuver would be

to undermine

the

the election so that a possible later

would be easier to attack.

By the way, surveys also suggest that the

votes cast

in the

more likely to be in favor of Trump, and the

favor of Biden.

According to this logic it would be clear: the longer you count, the more dangerous it could be for Trump.

US election forecast: Democrats are likely to lose the US state of Alabama to Republicans

On November 3, in addition to the President, the

* and around

the

voted on - and according to the surveys, the

* have a good chance of

retaining a

and

regaining

after six years

.

The

* are still confident of getting the House of Representatives

as they

see

a

in the

*.

They currently hold a majority of 53 of the 100 seats here.

Of the

Senate

that will be voted on November 3 (see above), twelve are currently held by Democrats and 23 by Republicans.

For the Democrats, it is foreseeable that they will

lose

a seat in

*: In polls, the Democrat Doug Jones is behind the former football coach Tommy Tuberville, who competes for the Republicans.

+

US President Donald Trump in the final spurt of the election campaign in North Carolina.

© Brendan Smialowski / AFP

US Election Polls: Arizona, Colorado and Maine for Republicans on the Brink

At the same time, however,

lag behind Democratic candidates in the polls in many places.

In

* Martha McSally is behind astronaut Mark Kelly, in

* Cory Gardner is behind Democratic challenger John Hickenlooper, and in

* Susan Collins is behind challenger Sara Gideon.

But also for other Republican senators, whose seats previously

seemed

, it has recently become

.

In

*, both Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue could be eliminated.

In

*, Senator Joni Ernst is behind in polls, in

* it is Thom Tillis against the Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham.

US election forecast: election campaign in South Carolina will be particularly sensational

One of the most exciting Senate races is in

*: Here, the

attacks the

-established

with an unprecedented influx of

.

“The job isn't done until we have one thing: #Send Lindsey home,” Harrison tweeted on Sunday.

The job's not finished until we #SendLindseyHome.

Made a last minute stop in Summerville on the way home tonight!

pic.twitter.com/J7ZlsI8RX5

- Jaime Harrison (@harrisonjaime) November 1, 2020

US Election Polls: Will House Democrats Stay Above A Major Brand?

In the

, the Democrats currently hold

the 435 seats.

According to surveys, they could

stay

above the crucial

.

In addition,

in

elected

on November 3

, as will several

.

Individual states also use the presidential elections for

.

(

)

List of rubric lists: © Evan Vucci / Patrick Semansky / dpa