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Trump supporters at Gerald R. Ford international airport in Grand Rapids, n
Photo:
Jeff Kowalsky / AFP
The US election campaign has been going on for ages, now the day of the decision has arrived.
At least in theory: the last voters will cast their votes - only whether there will be a winner that night is uncertain.
So shortly before the gate closes, the nervousness in the country rises, and with it speculation about how the election might end.
The Democrat Joe Biden is seen as a favorite, also in the polls, but an election victory for President Donald Trump remains possible.
There are dozens of ways the election could end.
Three scenarios currently seem the most plausible - and none of them should pacify the divided USA.
1. The hanging game
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Election week instead of election night: Trump on Sunday in North Carolina
Photo: CARLOS BARRIA / REUTERS
The scenario that most observers are currently worried about: a hanging game in which no winner has been determined on election night.
"We're expecting election week, not election night," said Ralph Northam, the Democratic governor of Virginia.
The AP agency, which is responsible for the official announcement of the results in addition to the US networks, assumes: "There is a good chance that the Americans will not know who will be the winner of the presidential election when they go that night Go to bed."
This is because in many US states it can (and may) take days for the votes of postal voters and those who took part in the
early voting
to be counted.
While Florida started 22 days in advance and therefore expects a quick result in the evening, others are taking their time - including important swing states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, in which every voice counts.
The rules are different everywhere - and many have been challenged beforehand by the Republicans, with varying degrees of success.
In addition, the US Post - which is run by Trump friend Louis DeJoy - could also delay the delivery of postal votes.
Trump has already announced in classic fashion that he will take advantage of such a scenario for himself.
Although long counting periods are legal, he called them "terrible" again on Sunday evening and demanded that they be banned: "As soon as this election is over," he said he would call his lawyers to stop any further counting.
The background is a phenomenon called "
Red Mirage
" (red illusion): According to this, Trump could initially lead on election night because the Republicans apparently prefer to cast their votes in person on election day than beforehand or by post.
The ratio could then later tilt with the counting of the postal and early election votes in the direction of Biden and the Democrats - which Trump wants to prevent by stopping counting.
In order to influence public opinion in his favor with such a cliffhanger, Trump apparently also intends to declare himself the winner early that night - even if the networks do not support it.
The website "Axios" reported that Trump discussed this in a small circle.
2. The blue wave
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Battle for the soul of the nation: Biden on Sunday in Pennsylvania
Photo: KEVIN LAMARQUE / REUTERS
The Democrats dream of this: that Biden will be the winner on election night.
In this scenario, the political map of the USA would largely be colored in the party color of the Democrats, while there would only be a few red, i.e. Republican, spots.
Some Democrats' optimism that this could happen is based on recent polls before the election.
You see Biden clearly ahead in several states and in many other states - including swing states - with an advantage of at least one to two percentage points.
Accordingly, Biden could already win on election evening in Florida, where the votes are counted early.
This would not necessarily be a nationwide decision, but an unmistakable sign of a "blue wave".
Because Florida would suggest that this wave then also spills through Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio, and even Republican strongholds like Georgia, North Carolina and Texas could conquer Biden.
In total, Biden would then have 350 to 400 electoral votes in the "
Electoral College
", the electoral body, so he would clearly exceed the required majority of 270 votes.
His march through would be undoubted, the TV networks and the AP agency would declare him the winner, and Biden would give his victory speech that evening.
He has already announced one place: his election party will take place in Wilmington, Biden's hometown in Delaware.
Whether Trump recognizes Biden's victory so easily is questionable.
After all, if he returns to private life, he faces several criminal proceedings in which he can no longer invoke presidential immunity.
So he could try to delay the defeat as long as possible or to negotiate favorable terms for himself in return for a peaceful admission.
Until then, it is feared that Trump's partly militant supporters will take to the streets unpeacefully - especially since he has been whipping them up for weeks by repeatedly claiming that the Democrats can only win through election fraud.
Many security experts assume violence and rioting from the right in this case.
3. The (relatively) narrow Trump victory
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Hope for a march through: Trump supporters in North Carolina
Photo: HANNAH MCKAY / REUTERS
Not only Trump and his supporters believe it is possible that he will crush Biden.
You believe in the "red wave".
To do this, however, all the surveys in the major states would not only have to be a little wrong, they would have to go wrong by five, six, seven percentage points or even more.
There were no such extreme deviations even in the last election, when the polls - and the Democrats around Hillary Clinton - misjudged Trump's strength in key regions and were surprised by his victory.
It is therefore more likely that a possible Trump victory, if so, will be rather narrow.
In this scenario, he could hold many of the states he won in the previous election, especially the two big
battleground states
Florida and Pennsylvania, and could also defend traditional strongholds of his party such as Texas, Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina .
Even if Trump ceded Wisconsin and Michigan to Biden, it would still be enough for him to cross the magical 270-vote limit on the electoral body.
Whether Trump is on the way to a possible re-election can be foreseen relatively early on election evening.
If it soon becomes clear that he can win Florida and then hold states like Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina and Georgia, he would be clearly in the game for the overall victory.
In this case too, of course, there could be unrest.
For their part, many Biden supporters are firmly convinced that Trump can only sneak a victory and swindle it.
Mass protests in Democratic strongholds such as New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago and Portland could then be expected.
Icon: The mirror
