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Go to the Supreme Court? Four questions about Trump's threat

2020-11-04T14:56:40.415Z


The US president claimed victory before the end of the count and accuses his opponents of fraud. He already promises a remedy


It was, by Donald Trump's own admission, the latest press conference of his life.

It was past two in the morning at the White House when the outgoing president appeared before reporters.

The latest, but also one of the fiercest.

Donald Trump threw himself without any measure into the media joust anticipated by his opponent, he who says he is now ready to go all the way to have a victory recognized that he considers to be achieved.

Even before the American Supreme Court.

What threat?

It was Joe Biden who had drawn the first, presenting himself in front of the camera two short hours before.

Fearing an early claim to victory by his opponent, the Democratic candidate spoke to show his optimism about the final victory and call to wait whatever happens for the end of the counting.

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Caught up in his own game, Donald Trump replied in two stages.

On Twitter, to begin with.

He accuses his rival of stealing the election.

Then in a press conference.

"We won this election," he assures us, while many counts are still in progress.

“Our goal now is to ensure the integrity of the ballot.

We want the law to be correctly applied, we are going to go to the Supreme Court […].

We are going to win and, from what I think, we have already won ”.

A statement deemed "scandalous, unprecedented and false" by the Democratic camp.

"Our legal team is ready to resist this offensive," he said in a press release.

Why is Trump aiming for postal voting?

For weeks, the threat of legal action had been brandished by the outgoing president.

Never in an American election has postal voting carried so much weight.

And if the polls are to be believed, this voting method would be especially favored by Democratic voters.

Above all, the counting of electronic votes takes time.

In some key states, counties have opted to begin counting the postal votes on Wednesday only.

This could delay the publication of the final results by a few days, perhaps until Friday.

Too long a delay for the outgoing president, who insists that this voting method opens the way to all possible cheating.

"We are entitled to know the winner on November 3," he insisted during one of his last campaign trips to Arlington, Virginia.

During his night press conference, he added another layer: "We do not want them to find ballots at 4 am," he said, assuming his desire to close the ballot before the vote. end of recounts.

On the Democratic side, it was one of the dreaded scenarios.

This fear was formulated last October 24 by Bernie Sanders, guest that day of the famous Talk-Show of Jimmy Fallon.

“It could be that at 10 pm, on election night, Donald Trump is leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin,” he explained.

Let him show up on TV and say, “Thank you to the American people for re-electing me!

», But that the following days, as the votes were counted by correspondence, we discovered that Joe Biden won in these States.

And that Donald Trump does not end up saying “You see!

I said it was all fraudulent ”.

"

thinking about this video of bernie sanders talking about mail-in votes pic.twitter.com/b6WpiIlwcs

- hannah (@hannahhycho) November 4, 2020

On what grounds can he appeal to the Supreme Court?

“Donald Trump would never have made this announcement to seize the Supreme Court if he thought he was going to win, analyzes Jean-Eric Branaa, lecturer at the University of Paris-II and specialist in the United States.

He is playing his all-out because he wants at all costs to prevent these States from going to the end of the count.

And once he announced it, he surely will.

"

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It remains to be seen how the latter intends to justify a future appeal.

Can Donald Trump go directly to the Supreme Court to challenge the entire ballot?

The answer is no.

"In the United States, the Supreme Court cannot be seized in the first place to contest the whole ballot," sweeps Françoise Coste, professor of American civilization at the University of Toulouse Jean-Jaurès.

Here we are at the state level.

“Advance voting has been around for 150 years in the United States.

Each state has its own rules, they are now clear, she continues.

Some accept ballots cast on polling day, postmarked, others do not.

This is so and there is no need to end these principles.

"

Before the ballot, the Supreme Court still had to position itself on the subject.

In Pennsylvania, for example, Republicans appealed to the Supreme Court to challenge the inclusion of ballots arriving after November 3.

A request rejected before the election by the high court, which paved the way for a reconsideration of the issue after the ballot.

A similar request was also denied in North Carolina.

The question of evacuated form, the Trump camp would therefore be forced to demonstrate the existence of a fraud.

"Valid votes will be counted," tweeted US constitutional expert Edward Foley after the outgoing president's press conference.

The Supreme Court can only be involved if doubts about the validity of a vote could make the difference, which is not necessarily the case.

The rule of law will determine the official winner of the popular vote in each state.

Let the rule of law work.

"

The valid votes will be counted.

SCOTUS would be involved only if there were votes of questionable validity that would make a difference, which might not be the case.

The rule of law will determine the official winner of the popular vote in each state.

Let the rule of law work.

- Ned Foley (@Nedfoley) November 4, 2020

Would the new composition of the court benefit Trump?

The Supreme Court will only be decisive if the ballot is played out of a pocket handkerchief, with a few thousand votes, in a specific state.

Which seems to be on track to be the case.

In the event that it were to be seized, could Donald Trump take advantage of its composition?

Of the nine judges who sit on it, six are indeed Conservatives.

“During his term alone, Donald Trump made three appointments,” recalls François Coste.

His three predecessors appointed an average of two… Over the duration of two terms.

"

On paper, our interlocutor believes that the outgoing president could well obtain some benefits.

“The President of the Supreme Court, John Roberts, is a conservative who is perceived as someone concerned about institutions, and who would refuse to touch the image of the highest American body, analyzes Françoise Coste.

But the other five may very well act without him and serve Donald Trump.

"

Among those five judges, the now famous Amy Coney Barrett, recently appointed by the outgoing president after the death of progressive judge Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

Questioned last October 27 in the Senate, she had promised to act in complete independence if she were to be seized within the framework of the elections.

No to deport.

Source: leparis

All news articles on 2020-11-04

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