U.S. General Election 2020｜Trump vs. Biden, who was elected the most "favorable" Hong Kong?

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Written by: Chen Xunlin

2020-11-05 07:39

Last update date: 2020-11-05 10:53

The counting of votes for the US presidential election is coming to an end, and whoever rules the White House will have a profound impact on the world.

When Trump, who seems to be "anti-China," meets Biden, who is accused of being "pro-China," who will be elected by "outsiders" who have no votes?

The BBC recently reported that in many Southeast Asian regions, including Hong Kong, many people regard China as an "enemy" and therefore tend to support Trump, hoping that he can attack China to protect local interests.

However, in fact, the two people's policies towards China are quite similar, and may not have taken the welfare of Hong Kong into consideration.

Some people hope that the new US president will continue to suppress Hong Kong and use this to create trouble for China, but whether Trump or Biden are elected, the two have similar policies toward China, and they do not take the welfare of Hong Kong into consideration.

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Attitude towards Hong Kong: Trump did not write about Biden's commitment to sanction

The current President Trump used to be hesitant about China and Hong Kong’s stance. It has only been in the past two years that he has launched the banner of "Resisting the Chinese Communist Party". He has repeatedly confronted China economically and politically, such as igniting the Sino-US trade war and tightening Hong Kong issues. He was welcomed by the "anti-China and anti-Communist" camp.

For example, he signed the "Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act" at the end of last year, requiring the US Secretary of State to submit a report to Congress every year to examine whether Hong Kong still enjoys a high degree of autonomy, whether it can continue to receive special treatment from the United States, and whether it needs to impose sanctions on those who weaken Hong Kong’s governance. Then sign the "Hong Kong Autonomy Act", announce the list of sanctions against Chinese and Hong Kong officials, revoke special treatment for Hong Kong, and require "Made in Hong Kong" imported goods to use the "Made in China" label-various crackdowns All brought a glimmer of hope to the "speculators", and he was therefore regarded as a "Hong Kong rescuer."

Many people believe that if Trump is re-elected, he will continue to rebel against the CCP and attack Hong Kong, which is equivalent to supporting Hong Kong.

However, in fact, although Trump has promised in his campaign platform to first suppress China, no longer rely on China, and even urge countries to stand in line to contain China from the fields of politics, public opinion, and technology, he has not focused on Hong Kong, nor There is no clear statement on Hong Kong's attitude, and there is no guarantee that the United States will continue to intervene in Hong Kong affairs.

During the Trump campaign, he did not focus on Hong Kong, nor did he promise to intervene in Hong Kong affairs in the future.

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Another candidate, Biden, was regarded by the outside world as a "pro-China faction" because he tended to support active contacts with Beijing during his tenure as vice president from 2009 to 2017. Many Hong Kong speculators were also "worried" that he would not be like Trang. Pune's tough attack on Hong Kong may not cause much trouble for China.

However, in contrast to Trump’s unilateralism, Biden has repeatedly emphasized the importance of multilateral relations, and hopes that the United States will return to the international multilateral framework and build an alliance of nations that emphasizes “rules” and “democracy” to deal with potential challenges from countries such as China. .

When he was asked by the media before attending the North Carolina election campaign at the end of September, he reiterated his "unswerving" stance towards China, and said that Beijing also knows and is worried about his "toughness", "I don't need to say more about this, but not. What an excuse."

Obviously, who is elected will have the same policy toward China.

As for the Hong Kong issue, Biden is not "weaker" or even more clear than Trump.

He once said that the legislative process of the Hong Kong version of the National Security Act involves "black box operations." If elected, it will prohibit US companies from assisting China in national surveillance; if Beijing harms the rights of US citizens, companies, and institutions, he will also quickly impose economic sanctions.

Biden said he had a tough attitude towards China and promised that if Beijing harms the interests of the United States in Hong Kong, he will take sanctions against Hong Kong.

(Paul Sancya/Associated Press)

Scholar: Confronting China has become the "Washington Consensus"

Deng Xiwei, professor of economics at the School of Economics and Business Administration of the University of Hong Kong and deputy director of the Hong Kong Institute of Economics and Business Strategy, analyzed during an interview with "Hong Kong 01" and wrote that during the last two years of Obama's tenure, the United States has realized that the world pattern has changed, including populism Protest and anti-China sentiments are high, so "against China" has long become the "Washington Consensus." No matter which candidate is on the stage, the US policy toward China is bound to become tougher, but the form and means may be different.

Deng Xiwei continued that if Trump is re-elected, there will be uncertainty in his China policy, because he is based on his businessman character, in order to take into account US business interests or to be more "relaxed" to China, coupled with the new crown pneumonia epidemic and continued economic recession, he must "First settle in", focus on fighting the epidemic and economic recovery, and thus relax its suppression of China. On the other hand, because the Democratic Party places more emphasis on democracy, human rights, freedom and climate change, it certainly needs to communicate and cooperate with China on certain issues, but It will also deal with China more systematically, such as using multilateralism to win over allies and using trade chains to eliminate China.

For the United States, Hong Kong has become a bargaining chip in the Sino-US trade war and the "new cold war". Deng Xiwei believes that China will not easily make concessions and compromises. Therefore, Hong Kong will still face repression and sanctions.

Under the Sino-US game, there are often deeper political and power considerations behind policies, and Hong Kong cannot escape the fate of chess pieces.

At present, in the United States, there is a consensus that China is a "competitor rather than a partner," and it will not change in the short term, nor will its suppression of Hong Kong be interrupted.

No matter who is elected, speculators are happy to see sanctions on Hong Kong, but what will Hong Kong get by then?

What will you lose?

Deng Xiwei, a professor of economics at the University of Hong Kong who returned from studying in the United States, believes that "against China" has long become the "Washington Consensus."

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